Sector Rotation- 2022 vs 2023
Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 31, 2023While only a month into the new year, 2023 has been marked by a sector…
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While only a month into the new year, 2023 has been marked by a sector…
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As we consider how the Fed might adjust the Fed Funds rate on Wednesday, it’s…
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We asked Chat GPT, the new artificial intelligence (AI) engine, that exact question. The answer…
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A shift to stocks that offer real value and dividends is one of our key…
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The U.S. Leading Economic Indicators, compiled by the Conference Board, fell by 1.0%. The decline…
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The S&P 500 and other major markets are testing a critical juncture. As we highlight…
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Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers spoke strongly to CNBC about the necessity for the…
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The Debt Limit has been reached, and the Treasury is resorting to “extraordinary measures” to…
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its short-term interest rate at -.10% and vowed to…
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Despite its growing popularity among retail investors and influence on markets, 0DTE is probably a…
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Earnings from the big banks were generally good, but the banks expressed concern about the…
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The HOPE analysis we presented in Monday’s Commentary addressed the typical progression of economic data…
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A golden cross occurs when a shorter moving average crosses above a longer moving average….
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Last year, as the market trended lower, higher dividend stocks sheltered investors from the storm….
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Michael Kantro, CIO of Piper Sandler, uses the HOPE cycle to show the order in…
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Silvergate Capital (SI) fell 40% on Thursday and is down by nearly 80% over the…
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The Fed Funds Futures market implies the Fed will raise the Fed Funds rate to…
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Many passive investors, such as those in retirement plans, use the start of a new…
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Entering 2023, investors seem to singularly focus on the Fed’s interest rate policy, not the…
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Looking back at what drove asset prices is a crucial part of the forecasting process…
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While we are still in 2022, stocks traded on Thursday will settle in 2023. This…
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Mastercard’s SpendingPulse report provides valuable information on credit card spending through the holiday buying season….
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Extremely harsh weather conditions from winter storm Elliot resulted in thousands of flight cancellations last…
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China’s National Health Commission announced that approximately 250 million citizens, or 18% of its population,…
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The put-call ratio is a simple calculation comparing the number of outstanding puts versus calls….
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Quarterly earnings reports from FedEx and Nike were well received on Wall Street. While investors…
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While the world’s central banker’s aggressively hiked interest rates and curtailed QE to fight inflation,…
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The road map for 2023 may continue to depend heavily on the Fed’s monetary policy…
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The markets went through an extended period earlier this year where bad news was good…
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The key takeaway from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting: despite encouraging inflation news, the Fed believes they…
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As was widely expected, the Fed hiked rates by 50bps to 4.25% – 4.50%. Currently,…
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Stocks jumped out of the gate yesterday morning as lower-than-expected inflation readings led investors to…
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The U.S. Treasury department hit its debt limit on August 1st. As a result, they…
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Monetary policy governs financial market liquidity which drives asset prices. Therefore, as the Fed continues…
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Carvana, the online used car dealer, has had quite the fall from glory. On Wednesday,…
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As the Fed pulls liquidity from the financial system, those using too much leverage and…
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In Jerome Powell’s speech last week, which drove the markets 3% higher, he offered a…
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MarketWatch recently pointed out that two well-followed measures of consumer sentiment are diverging and possibly…
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Last Wednesday Powell stated: “wage growth remains well above levels that would be consistent with…
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Stocks shot higher on Wednesday after Chair Powell’s speech. Looking for good news, the bulls…
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According to the most recent AAII sentiment poll, bears have outnumbered bulls for 35 consecutive…
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At 1:30, Jerome Powell will update the public on his views. This will be his…
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Crude oil prices are now down on the year, despite almost doubling in the first…
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A recession is very unlikely if the only recession gauge one was following is the…
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The most closely followed measures of employment tend to be lagging indicators. However, there is…
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Recently we have noted that the odds are increasing that financial instability, or as we…
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On April 14, 2021, shares of Coinbase, a cryptocurrency broker/custodian, were first publically traded. The…
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Markets were spared when the Houston Astros won the world series. As we highlighted in…
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Meta cut 11,000 jobs. Twitter let 3,700 employees go. Stripe, Coinbase, and Microsoft all fired…
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Target reported poor earnings ($1.54 versus $2.13 expected) and revised its outlook lower. They claim…
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In addition to CPI, PPI, and PCE data, the Fed relies on consumer inflation expectations…
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“The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report….
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Bulls released a huge sigh of relief last week after encouraging inflation data prompted a…
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Stocks and bonds had an especially bullish reaction to new data out Thursday showing that…
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As we reported yesterday, a liquidity crunch brought cryptocurrency exchange FTX to its knees on…
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Remember the bullwhip effect? Retailers and wholesalers massively over-ordered merchandise following supply chain shocks just…
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All eyes will be on the Midterms today as investors assess the outcome’s implications for…
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As we wrote on Friday, investors were disappointed again last week after Jerome Powell failed…
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Stock investors are screaming “AAUGH!” as Jerome Powell duped them again. In one of the…
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The Fed took another step Wednesday on its path to slay inflation. As widely expected,…
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Monetary headwinds, already proving difficult for stock prices, are expected to strengthen in the next…
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The Financial Times reports that Tesla is holding preliminary talks with Glencore, a large commodity…
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The FAANGs are taking a Halloween bite out of many investors’ goody bags. FAANG stocks,…
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Q3 GDP rose nicely, but the Fed’s preferred yield curve has spoken. It says a…
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Since 1950 there have only been four other instances in which a balanced 60/40 stock/bond…
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Monday’s Commentary discussed the BOJ’s dual interventions to cap bond yields and prevent its currency…
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is intervening again in its currency market to prevent more…
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The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators Index (LEI) is a robust predictor of coming recessions,…
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Per Wikipedia, the Fog of War is “the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants…
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The latest release of the series Stranger Things helped Netflix (NFLX) achieve better-than-expected earnings and…
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You may be thinking, why should I care about bank deposits? There are a couple…
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Tesla’s fall from grace has been swift. The first graph below shows that over the…
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We lead with an appropriate cartoon from HedgeEye. In the current environment, investors appear singularly…
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CPI was higher than expected, primarily due to sharply rising shelter prices. Shelter prices are…
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Below, we share a summary of an article we published Wednesday. It discusses how the…
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Amazon kicked off its second Prime Day of 2022, offering great deals to its customers….
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In our article Bond Yields Are Defying Yesterday’s Logic, we walked through traditional drivers of…
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Despite rising interest rates and slowing economic activity, the jobs market remains robust. The BLS…
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The Federal Reserve has a big hand when it comes to market liquidity. While the…
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ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE: Our apologies for yesterday’s lack of new commentary. We had a technical glitch…
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Rumors are floating around that Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, is having financial difficulties. Accordingly,…
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This past quarter (Q3), investors took their lumps. However, seasonality analysis points to a positive…
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Thursday’s Daily Commentary led with the story of the Bank of England’s (BOE) temporary purchases…
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Just days after raising interest rates and starting QT, the Bank of England is taking…
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Many investors are frequently reallocating their holdings between stocks and bonds. This year, figuring out…
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The British Pound (GBP) opened trading on Sunday night at 1.08. Within the first hour…
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Why are stocks, bonds, and commodities tumbling? To answer, one only needs to look at…
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U.S. Investors woke to the following headline yesterday morning: “JAPAN TOP CURRENCY DIPLOMAT KANDA: FOREX…
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As we and many suspected, the Fed and Jerome Powell are not backing off their…
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At 2 pm ET, the Fed’s FOMC will update monetary policy. Given the Fed’s role…
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The Fed’s two-day policy meeting kicks off this morning with expectations of a 75bps Fed…
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Fed Ex stock fell about 20% after they delivered disappointing earnings and significantly lowered forward…
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The nation’s supply lines were spared a massive blow as the rail workers union and…
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In the tweet below, Lance asks investors a critical question. Is 4 percent enough of…
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This Friday’s quad witching options expirations can generate a lot of market volatility. At the…
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U.S. household net worth fell in 2Q22 by $6.1 trillion following a slight decline in…
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Traders dumped the U.S. dollar on Friday, and most asset classes rallied. It is becoming…
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The Fed’s media mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, let it be known…
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A year or two ago, politicians were demanding we need to flatten the curve. At…
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On Friday, the G7 announced a price cap on Russian oil. Russia quickly retaliated by…
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The administration warned that job growth would cool off in last Friday’s employment report. The…
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Following Powell’s hawkish speech last Friday, investors are not happy. Their concern is that Powell…
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Lithium is a key material in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Not surprisingly, with the rampant…
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The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet unwind, aka Quantitative Tightening (QT), ramps up today to 95…
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Two-year Treasury note yields neared 3.50% yesterday, the highest level since 2007. At that time,…
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Bloomberg recently published a disturbing article entitled- A ‘Tsunami of Shutoffs’: 20 Million US Homes…
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As we have noted, the Fed will often use the media, and in particular, Nick…
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The recent market uptrend is stalling. The culprit is most likely the coming annual Jackson…
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For the first time in 20 years, the euro-dollar pair is trading below 1.00 (parity)….
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In Monday’s commentary, we discussed how Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares rose almost five-fold…
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“Blood Bath” & Beyond (BBBY) was the latest meme stock to be forced into a…
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Short covering has stopped. Over the last couple of days, markets have meandered as investors…
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Stock markets have been on fire since the last round of inflation data which showed…
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Recent housing data further confirms that the “Great Reopening” housing boom is morphing into a…
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Regional manufacturing indexes tend to correlate strongly with economic activity. More importantly, they are often…
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San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has some hawkish comments in a Financial Times interview…
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Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal adds to the debate the bulls and bears…
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Finally, the BLS CPI report provided a bit of relief on the inflation front. Relief…
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Bond traders and economists pay close attention to various yield curves as they are good…
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NVIDIA (NVDA) and other chip makers are warning that chip sales are falling below expectations….
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The economy added 528k jobs in July, almost 300k more than expected. With the much…
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Traditionally high-growth companies are involved in new, life-changing technologies. Think of the now mature high-growth…
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The graph below from Crescat Capital shows that, in aggregate, the market-leading FAANG stocks saw…
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In just the last two weeks, gold prices have spiked by $85/ounce. Why? Some claim…
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Other than lower commodity prices, there are few other indicators of cooling inflation. That is…
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On the heels of disappointing earnings news from fellow retailers (Walmart and Bed Bath and…
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For the second quarter in a row, GDP was negative. Second quarter GDP fell 0.9%…
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market trading update
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A few months ago, we wrote the following about WMT’s first quarter earnings: “Walmart is…
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On Monday, MarketWatch published Its the End of “Fantasyland” for Big Tech and its Workers,…
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Bond investors have had a rough year. However, there is hope on the horizon. Despite…
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Commodities were a sea of red yesterday as the Chinese Yuan stumbled, and the ECB…
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Fed pivot? Zero Hedge shared a Bloomberg article yesterday titled “If The Fed Pivots Sooner…
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Most stock and bond investors have been punished by the Fed’s aggressive monetary stance designed…
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The graph below from Mott Capital Management warrants some caution heading into the next week’s…
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On Thursday, Fed Presidents Bullard and Waller talked down market expectations for a 1% rate…
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JP Morgan (JPM) kicked off the Q2 earnings season with disappointing results. JPM earnings per…
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The Consumer Price Index, CPI, rose above last month’s figures and economists’ expectations. June’s inflation…
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The latest NFIB- Small Business Optimism Survey fell for the sixth straight month. Per the…
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As we show below, gold (GLD gold ETF) prices have taken it on the chin…
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Earnings season starts next week, with banks and airlines leading the way. Last earnings season…
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The graph below shows the four largest fertilizer stocks (MOS, NTR, CF, and IPI) have…
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On Wednesday morning, the US Dollar hit a 20-year high. A strong dollar makes The…
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During June, the BBB-rated investment-grade corporate bond index rose 25bps more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasury…
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Bond markets are presenting quite a conundrum for investors. Over the last three months, the…
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As we roll into the Fourth of July holiday, we thought we would discuss another…
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At the end of each quarter, markets often experience heightened volatility as institutional money managers…
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There are a growing number of signs that a u-turn in inflation rates may be…
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Yet another regional Fed manufacturing survey warns of economic contraction. On Monday, the Dallas Fed…
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Rate increase expectations for the Fed are starting to fall rapidly as recent evidence suggests…
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Market fears subsided a bit over the past couple of days as Powell testified before…
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Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday morning. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to…
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The trillion-dollar question on nearly every investor’s mind lately is “When will the market bottom…
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The stock market is having its worst week since March 2020 when the Pandemic first…
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On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed revised its Q2 growth estimate to 0.0%. Yesterday, the Philadelphia…
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While the WSJ telegraphed the potential for a 75bps rate hike on Tuesday, the Fed’s…
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The graph below shows that 5yr yields have risen over 2% in 2022. Many in…
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The graph below shows that 2yr Treasury yields rose 0.25% on Friday, the largest one-day…
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The BLS CPI Inflation report surprised the markets, coming in hotter than expected. The surprises…
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In Thursday’s Commentary, we share the World Bank’s warning about global stagflation. We follow up…
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The World Bank is out with a stern warning that the global economy may be…
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In our May 19 Commentary, we shared commentary from Target’s CEO regarding the earnings and…
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As measured by VIX, Volatility has been elevated throughout the current downward trend. Such is…
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Unlike the weakening ADP Employment report, the BLS payrolls report highlights a very healthy labor…
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The following headline hit the wires Thursday morning: LAEL BRAINARD: VERY HARD TO SEE CASE…
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Yesterday the Federal Reserve began shrinking its balance sheet, kicking off a new QT era….
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Recent inflation data for Germany and Europe shocked economists on Monday, rising much more than…
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Like CPI, which was released two weeks ago, monthly PCE inflation was much lower than…
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Nvidia (NVDA) joins a long list of companies that reported decent earnings but reduced their…
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New home sales plummeted to an annualized rate of 591k, well below expectations of 750k….
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Social media company Snap’s stock fell over 40% in trading on Tuesday. Concerning us is…
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Last Friday, the S&P 500 briefly dipped to 3810, marking a 20.5% decline from its…
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It is no secret that Exxon and the energy sector, in general, have been the…
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The Fed pays a lot of attention to financial stability or market functioning, and they…
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Another day and another stern warning that consumers are struggling. Below we provide details on…
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Walmart posted earnings per share of $1.30, much weaker than expectations for $1.48. While the…
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The May New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell sharply into economic contraction levels…
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The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a rally to…
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Producer prices (PPI) for April met expectations rising .5%. While .5% is a big monthly…
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Ex-New York Fed President Bill Dudley seems to have it out for the Fed. Despite…
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Often markets bottom when investor sentiment is poor and peak when it’s high. As they…
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Fear, not inflation, is driving bond yields higher despite popular beliefs. The graph below shows…
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The S&P 500 was down seven points this past week. Last week’s extreme volatility made…
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Shares of ETSY plunged yesterday on a poor quarterly earnings report. We are not very…
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Meeting market expectations, the Fed raised rates by 50bps and will start Quantitative Tightening (QT)…
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The consensus is that Jerome Powell and the Fed will raise interest rates by 50bps…
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The national ISM Manufacturing Survey was unexpectedly weaker than expected, as shown below. This should…
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Shares of Amazon, the third-largest contributor to the S&P 500, fell over 10% on Friday….
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First-quarter GDP fell by 1.4% versus expectations for a 1.1% increase. As we discussed in…
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Apple Inc. will release its earnings after the close today. Apple Inc. is the largest…
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The robust 6.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely hit a…
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Many companies, including the largest in the United States, will release Q1 earnings this week….
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Gap stock (GPS) fell 20%, proving another victim of poor earnings. Executives blame supply line…
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The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.11% this week. The last time…
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Shares of Netflix (NFLX) lost over a third of their value on Wednesday after announcing…
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Despite mortgage rates nearing 5.50%, new homebuilders continue to file for building permits, and they…
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Many economists have warned that an inverted yield curve will lead to a recession. The…
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After announcing he took a 9.2% stake in Twitter a few weeks ago, Elon Musk…
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Michael, I, and the entire staff at RIA Advisors wanted to take this special day…
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The latest round of CPI inflation data confirms a troubling situation for many workers. Salaries,…
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Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned off $34 billion of ten-year notes. Despite yields rising sharply…
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Within today’s Commentary, we point out a few concerning market divergences. We lead with the…
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If you think the Fed is hawkish, you ain’t seen nothing yet. In a Bloomberg…
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With first-quarter earnings announcements starting soon, investors are trying to figure out how inflation will…
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The Dow Jones Transportation Index is down about 12% in just the last seven days,…
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In Monday’s Commentary, we wrote: “Keep an eye on Fed speeches for any guidance on…
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Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, announced he has accumulated a 9% stake in Twitter (TWTR). Shares…
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The most followed U.S. Treasury yield curve, 2yr vs. the 10yr, is now solidly inverted….
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Crude oil prices tumbled Thursday as President Biden announced the DOE would release 1 million…
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Restoration Hardware (RH) stock is trading over 10% lower as it missed earnings expectations despite…
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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly rose to 107.2, from 105.7. Despite the increase…
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The U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to flatten and, in some cases, invert and therefore…
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The VIX index gauging expected equity volatility is normalizing despite a sharp pick-up in yields,…
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On Thursday, Nvidia (NVDA) led the market and other chip stocks higher. It appears chip…
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So far, it has been predominately the defense, materials, agricultural, and energy companies most affected…
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Over the last few months, bond yields have surged higher. Higher yields are a tax…
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On Monday, Powell reiterated the need to normalize monetary policy. Per his speech: “There is…
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The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a strong rally…
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As we anticipated, stocks are rallying out of the FOMC meeting after fears of a…
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On March 3, 2020, the Federal Reserve reduced its Fed Funds rate and bought Treasury…
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The recent surge in gold and oil prices has been erased. While the Russian invasion…
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The S&P 500 just flashed a death cross. A death cross is a bearish technical…
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Not surprisingly, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey fell again. The index hit 59.7…
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The CPI year-over-year inflation rate, propelled by rising gas and used car prices, rose to…
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Stocks rallied on Wednesday as the Financial Times reported that the UAE will call upon…
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Gold was up $80 an ounce at its peak yesterday, and nickel prices catapulted higher,…
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The Fed will officially end the latest round of QE on Wednesday. The schedule below…
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While the media and public heavily focus on surging oil prices, wheat and other grain…
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The BLS will release February’s employment report at 8:30 ET this morning. Current expectations, as…
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Stocks rebounded despite a somewhat hawkish Congressional testimony by Powell and soaring crude oil prices….
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Chairman Powell will testify to Congress today and tomorrow and is likely to face many…
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The wild volatility in many asset classes continues as the Russian invasion trudges on. Peace…
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Stocks are being whipped around as volatility wreaks havoc on bulls and bears alike. The…
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If you think U.S. stocks are trading poorly, you may feel better looking at the…
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“Russia Invades Ukraine” is the media headline this morning as the thing concerning investors finally…
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Due to technical difficulties last night, there will be no daily commentary today. The daily…
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As we noted on Friday, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey reflects a decrease in bullish…
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The on and off again Russian invasion of Ukraine is heating back up, and with…
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Viacom (VIAC) joins Meta, Netflix, and a host of other companies that saw double-digit declines…
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Stock prices have been on a roller coaster, tracking the ebbs and flows of a…
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Energy stocks have finally taken a break from their upwards progress as they led the…
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Rumors were flying on Friday that a likely invasion of Kyiv by the Russians is…
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Bond investors panicked yesterday on higher than expected inflation. The most noticeable yield changes occurred…
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Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, one of the more dovish members of the FOMC, anticipates…
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Thus far in February, the volatility in markets is calm compared to the violent sessions…
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The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is approaching 2%. The last time 10-year Treasury…
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Individual stocks continue to show extreme volatility around their respective earnings announcements. The latest round…
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Stocks traded lower Thursday in large part due to Meta (Facebook) and the Bank of…
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This earnings season seems to be generating more volatility than is typical. Yesterday’s earnings releases…
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Shares of UPS rose 15% on Tuesday after reporting better than expected earnings. In addition,…
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It appears there is a brewing debate at the Fed regarding how to normalize monetary…
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The Russell 2000 Index, a composite of small stocks, closed Thursday down more than 20%…
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For those of you following the markets day and night, as we do, you likely…
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The moment Jerome Powell said the Fed will remove assets from their balance sheet “sooner…
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At 2 pm ET, the Fed will conclude its FOMC policy meeting and inform us…
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The S&P exhibited extreme volatility throughout the day on Monday. The market opened weaker and…
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Stocks bounced around Friday as investors look ahead to Wednesday’s important FOMC meeting. Fueling some…
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Over the past year, many stocks that benefited from the Pandemic lockdowns have given up…
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The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Stock index continues to struggle. On Wednesday, it fell 1.56% and…
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Shares of Goldman Sachs tumbled Tuesday as earnings fell $1.30 short of expectations and were…
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Pfizer and Moderna shares struggled on Friday as the Supreme Court overturned a federal (OSHA)…
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Airline stocks took off on Thursday on the back of better than expected earnings from…
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Inflation is now running at 7-percent, well above the Fed 2% objective. Following the CPI…
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At 8:30 am ET, the BLS will release the December CPI Report. Expectations are for…
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While the large-cap indexes trended higher throughout 2021, small-cap stocks (IWM) spent most of the…
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Investor exuberance for speculative investments is increasingly waning. For instance, GameStop (GME) surged 25% in…
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As we enter 2022, we wonder if this is the year we finally see a…
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The Fed minutes from their December 14-15th meeting, released yesterday, show a heightened concern with…
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Ford (F) is following Tesla’s path. Tesla shares surged on Monday after they released strong…
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Bonds struggled Monday following a couple of solid days to close out 2021. Ten-Year UST…
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As we say goodbye to 2021, we want to offer our sincere thank you for…
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The winning stocks of early 2021 are falling out of favor. Below we discuss how…
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The S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak Tuesday as technology and health care stocks…
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Markets rallied on Monday following this weekend’s strong retail sales data from Mastercard. Despite canceled…
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Wall Street wished stock investors a merry Christmas on Christmas Eve. The S&P closed Thursday…
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Despite the surging number of Covid cases, investors’ Omicron fears appear to be easing. It…
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Monday’s negative market narratives, Omicron, and the failure of Biden’s BBB spending package didn’t phase…
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Senator Manchin and Omicron and bears are weighing on investor sentiment heading into the holiday-shortened…
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GM is now shipping Hummer EV pickup trucks. Ford is halting reservations on its electric…
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It seems the market may have second thoughts about the acceleration of the hawkish Fed…
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In a decidedly hawkish statement, the Fed doubled taper plans. Additionally, they plan to hike…
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At 2 pm ET, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will alter monetary policy….
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High dividend stocks rose yesterday despite weakness in the major indexes. The weakness in the…
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The BLS gave us our monthly reminder that inflation is running hot. CPI is now…
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Bitcoin and stocks fell in light trading yesterday. As we show below from SimpleVisor, Bitcoin…
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Apple stock rose 2.25% yesterday to close over $175, a new all-time high. Shares in…
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Technology stocks led the markets higher on Tuesday. With little news on the tape, it…
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Yesterday morning an ominous Wall Street Journal article warned investors that the Fed will speed…
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Are value stocks in vogue? The price action of the last few days screams yes….
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Oil prices plummeted 5% yesterday morning as OPEC went ahead with a planned output hike…
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Cyber Monday stock gains erased a good chunk of Black Friday’s losses. Fear of another…
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The typical uneventful post-Thanksgiving Friday trading session was anything but that. Black Friday market discounts…
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As we show below, Initial Jobless Claims plunged to a level last seen in 1969….
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The NASDAQ was lower by over one percent at lunchtime but cut its losses in…
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President Biden renominated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for another four years as the head of…
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The Euro continues to tumble versus the dollar as Covid cases in Europe are spiking….
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Thanks to the FAANG stocks, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were higher on the day….
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Fed’s Williams says “we must think about how to shore up the Treasury Market so…
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“Crypto’s Crash,” says some financial news headlines. The reality is Bitcoin, Ethereum and others are…
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