Oil Prices Fall As China Slows
Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 13, 2024As we share in the graph below, crude oil prices peaked at $95 a barrel…
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As we share in the graph below, crude oil prices peaked at $95 a barrel…
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The Adobe Digital Price Index claims to use data from over one trillion online consumer…
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Yesterday’s commentary answered a question from a reader about our thoughts on owning gold or…
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This past weekend, we received this question from a reader. The question is in reference…
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Heading into last Friday’s BLS employment report, the Fed Funds futures market put equal odds…
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A week ago, the BLS revised lower the number of employed persons by nearly 900,000….
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Nvidia faces legal woes as the Justice Department subpoenaed the company over antitrust concerns. This…
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“The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve…
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Like the meteorological seasons, share buybacks also follow predictable patterns. Accordingly, as shown below, we…
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At many quarter ends, the markets often exhibit unusual behavior. Moreover, the oddities leading up…
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The graph below shows the MBA average 30-year mortgage rate, with its year-over-year change below….
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Recent surveys of labor sentiment point to potential problems. For instance, last week, we shared…
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Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has been touting the benefits his company receives from AI. In…
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On Friday, Jerome Powell signaled that a September rate cut is highly likely, and the…
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Peter Schiff tweeted the following in regards to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI):…
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The Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, kicking off yesterday, will keep traders on…
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If you went off the grid for the last month and are just returning, you…
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Recently, Kamala Harris proposed that if elected, she would implement a ban on price gouging…
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Over the last year or so, crude oil and ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields have…
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Walmart’s earnings report gives investors hope that weakening retail spending trends may be ending. Walmart’s…
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Unlike yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PPI report, CPI was right on the screws. As expected, CPI and…
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The Wall Street Journal shared an interesting investment strategy that Research Affiliates (RA) championed in…
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The graph below from Bianco Research shows a stunning change in sentiment among stock market…
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Starting with a special video on Monday morning and our Daily Market Commentaries throughout the…
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According to the latest JOLTs report from the BLS, the number of job hires has…
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If you want more evidence that the recent spate of intense volatility was related to…
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The two graphs below tell us the market was petrified on Monday and willing to…
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CLICK HERE for a short video on the state of the markets and yen carry…
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This past weekend’s Newsletter discussed how yield curve un-inversions have an excellent track record of…
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As the election nears, investors will become more anxious about how the market may react…
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While it’s far from guaranteed, a Fed rate cut in September is looking increasingly likely….
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A SimpleVisor subscriber asked us a poignant question; we think the answer is worth sharing….
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Yesterday, McDonalds issued a health warning in their earnings announcement. The warning is not about…
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Copper is often called Doctor Copper as its price serves as an economic barometer. Before…
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Can we blame the yen for the recent market decline and severe rotation from large…
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In a stunning reversal of opinion, ex. New York Fed Governor Bill Dudley now calls…
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Making sense of home sales and prices data is challenging as there is little activity…
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To show the dramatic shift in market breadth, we compare the SimpleVisor Absolute/Relative sector and…
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Over the five trading days ending July 16, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (IWM) had…
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On Wednesday, the Nasdaq fell by nearly 3%, the most significant decline in over two…
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On Tuesday, we published Fed Rate Cuts – A Signal To Sell Stocks And Buy…
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Goldman Sachs has been vocal over the last week or two, making a good case…
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The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (UM) unexpectedly fell sharply a month ago after…
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Coal miners used to bring canaries into the mines to protect themselves from harmful gases….
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% last month, following 0.0% the prior month and…
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The Fed’s balance sheet peaked at $9 billion in April 2022. Today, after two years…
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress yesterday and updated them with the Fed’s latest…
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A reader asked us how concerned we are about the market’s extension from crucial moving…
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A year ago, the Fed Funds futures market thought the Fed would have cut rates…
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As we shared on Monday, The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High. The biggest reason…
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Tuesday’s JOLTs report is one of many data points showing that the labor market is…
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Let’s step back and ignore the last four years in which the economy cratered with…
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Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues breathed a sigh of relief Friday morning as the…
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The recent Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey data show a state of cognitive dissonance among…
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Japan holds $1.150 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities, well above the next major foreign holder,…
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The unique graph below caught our attention, compelling us to read Solar Power Is Going…
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Over the last six-plus months, we have written plenty on how a few stocks lead…
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Consumers are turning away from name-brand foods in an attempt to cut back on spending….
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The chart below, courtesy of @KobeissiLetter on X, depicts downtown cell communication data for several…
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The chart below suggests that global diversification could be dead. The S&P 500 notched a…
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Tesla investors are betting on the EV maker’s path to tech-caliber profitability. However, the manifestation…
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Over the past few months, we have witnessed a decided deterioration in consumer spending. For…
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Bad market breadth seems to be a hallmark of the rally off of the 2022…
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The Fed got good news yesterday, with the headline CPI coming in at 0% for…
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The Fed often stresses that it prefers core inflation measures, which exclude food and energy…
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Degen traders, short for degenerates, are taking storm of the markets. The Wall Street Journal…
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The BLS jobs report showed the economy added 272k jobs, well above expectations of 175k,…
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Yes, you read that right: Texas will host a stock exchange. BlackRock and Citadel are…
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Here we go again. At the peak of the mortgage bubble, leading to the Great…
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Crude oil prices have fallen by 10% over the last five days and nearly 20%…
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GameStop shares traded nearly 100% higher in pre-market trading before Monday’s official 9:30 ET opening….
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In mid-March, we presented daily Commentary readers with a section entitled, Add Cocoa To The…
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We haven’t written lately on Cathie Wood and her ARKK Innovation ETF. But given the…
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The graph on the left below, courtesy of Arbor Data Science, shows that $8 billion…
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Nvidia shares have risen by 600% in the last two years. While some say its…
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Thursday’s Commentary led with a discussion of how sales at major retailers were slowing appreciably….
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With the stock price of Nvidia (NVDA) now trading at over $1,000 per share, Nvidia…
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One repeated theme in the current round of earnings is that personal consumption is slowing…
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“Recently, we have had confusing divergences in the major stock market indexes,” starts a reader’s…
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This Wednesday’s Nvidia (NVDA) quarterly earnings announcement will be the most watched earnings report of…
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Summer driving season, lasting from Memorial Day to Labor Day is fast approaching. Typically, during…
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The graph below shows that the price of electricity is surging. It has risen by…
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Wednesday’s retail sales and CPI data were weak enough to get investors back on the…
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On Monday, the popular meme stocks Game Stop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged higher…
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After a brief spurt of volatility accompanying the 6% market decline in April, implied volatility…
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A few weeks ago, we wrote Economic Warning From The NFIB to share information from…
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Apple’s stock surged 7% after reporting flat earnings and revenue growth. Investors didn’t seem to…
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With just a few graphs, we can visualize how economic headwinds are about to get…
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In June, Apple is expected to announce its progress on AI development, including Project ACDC,…
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Personal consumption accounts for two-thirds of economic activity. Therefore, the means by which consumers can…
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Last week’s Employment Cost Index (ECI) shook the stock and bond markets as investors worried…
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Starbucks latest earnings report sends the message that consumers may finally be retrenching after a…
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As was widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged. Jerome Powell alluded that it’s…
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Eli Lilly (LLY) shares have risen significantly as the company is proving to be a…
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Year to date, the yen has fallen by 10% versus the U.S. dollar. Consequently, the…
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Yesterday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real GDP grew by 1.6%, putting…
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Meta shares fell almost 20% following a better-than-expected earnings report. The day before, Tesla shares…
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The U.S. Treasury now has $930 billion in cash in its Treasury General Account (TGA)…
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The Wall Street Journal posted an article on bank rule changes entitled A Century-Old Lending…
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Over the last few weeks, the market tone has changed. The S&P 500 is no…
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Investors tend to prefer periods of stability. However, as we share below, politicians’ promises appear…
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The narrative de jour scaring bond investors is reflation. The recent stickiness and even uptick…
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Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the coming halving of Bitcoin and its pros and cons for Bitcoin…
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On Saturday, April 20, Bitcoin will be halving. Halving is an essential part of what…
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In our article Is Toyota The Next Tesla, we discuss recent trends in the automobile…
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From a macroeconomic perspective, Friday’s bank earnings reports provide two important pieces of information. As…
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With the latest round of inflation data in hand, it appears the Fed has two…
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Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, asks- “What time is it in the…
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There’s a lot to suggest that this is still a very fragile recovery despite the…
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Amazon stock accounts for 25% of the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY), and it has been…
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The average Wall Street forecast for job growth was 200k, with the highest individual at…
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This past week’s ISM service and manufacturing surveys continue to show divergence between the two…
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Markets often experience periods, like today, where specific sectors or factors lead the market. Identifying…
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Typically, credit spreads and yields on junk bonds align with credit stress and anticipated stress…
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For the better part of the last two years, Jerome Powell and the Fed have…
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In a speech last Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller showed how even the most hawkish…
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As shown on the left, from 1979 until 2000, the correlation between small cap returns…
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Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the fall of EV maker Fisker. After posting the article, Fisker shares…
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Over the last few weeks, we have shared information about the troubles facing the commercial…
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The vacancy rate of commercial real estate is higher today than at any point in…
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With inflation remaining sticky well above the Fed’s 2% target and the economy showing few…
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The last release of the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, aka dot plots, was…
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has finally ended its eight-year run of negative interest rates….
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In Spruce Pine, North Carolina, one small area supplies the world with high-purity quartz. Spruce…
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The following commentary is from The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER claims…
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Microstrategy (MSTR) provides its customers with business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. Despite losing…
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Over the last few months, the downward inflation trend has slowed appreciably. Such leads some…
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Wall Street banks, brokers, and asset managers put out market research, which can be of…
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Gold and Bitcoin have been among some of the best-performing assets recently, yet despite their…
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Friday’s employment data from the BLS was a mixed bag. The closely followed nonfarm payrolls…
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The Fed is doing QT and keeping interest rates at 15+ year highs. Mortgage rates…
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From Monday’s close to its low point on Tuesday, Bitcoin declined by over 13%. While…
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Paul Volcker, Fed Chairman from 1979 to 1987, passed away in 2019. However, poignant words…
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“Mooning“- When the value of an asset skyrockets, exceeding investors’ expectations. The phrase mooning, often…
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It’s not just a handful of AI-related stocks that signal a speculative investment atmosphere. Many…
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Stock buyback authorization announcements are soaring this year. As shown in the graph on the…
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The implied volatility index (VIX) calculates the future volatility that option traders expect. The VIX…
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In a recent article, geologist Ted Cross of Novilabs eases investor concerns about the rapid…
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As we noted in our current Weekly Newsletter, Conference Board Scraps Its Recession Call, the…
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JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon sold $150 million of his JPM shares, marking the first…
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Japan is in a recession, its population is shrinking, and its debt to GDP is…
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The Magnificent Seven hog the headlines and are the envy of many investors. Yet since…
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The Bloomberg graph below provides us with a reason to be optimistic about the earnings…
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The graphs below show the daily and weekly graphs of MDY, the midcap ETF, alongside…
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On Thursday morning, Japan and the United Kingdom reported a negative GDP for the second…
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Lyft’s earnings announcement Tuesday night was one for the ages. Their quarterly earnings statement reported…
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Per the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 43.5% of GDP comes from small businesses. The Small…
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On January 23, we led the Daily Commentary with a couple of paragraphs titled Is…
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The supply side of the energy transition is well on its way, but the demand…
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The Magnificent Seven continue to lead the market higher as they did last year. However,…
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Late Tuesday night, Moody’s downgraded NYCB’s credit rating to BB, putting it in junk bond…
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In early 2021, China’s CSI 300 Index, representing the top 300 stocks traded on the…
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The price of New York Community Bank (NYCB) was cut in half last week as…
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The BLS stunned investors Friday morning, reporting that the labor market was hotter than expected….
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Interestingly, the Fed removed the following statement from Wednesday’d FOMC statement: “The U.S. banking system…
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“Call it a gold rush” started a Washington Post article, The Economy (Taylor’s Version), detailing…
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Bond bears have warned that the Treasury will overwhelm the market with debt, pushing yields…
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We believe that the clearest sign of a coming recession is weakness in the labor…
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On a few occasions, we have shared data on the differences between real-time rent inflation…
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We recently published Part Two of a series comparing inflation in the 1970s to today….
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Since peaking in the first quarter of 2022, the net profit margin on the S&P…
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Last week’s initial unemployment claims were 187,000. Since 1967, there have only been 21 weekly…
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We have frequently lamented the CPI index as its underlying prices tend to lag real-time…
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The price of Bitcoin rose over 10% in the first two weeks of 2024, peaking…
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Various politicians and a Fed member have recently claimed that the recent bout of high…
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We have noted numerous times that corporate bond spreads, the yield premium versus U.S. Treasuries,…
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“Fed Tiptoes Toward Dialing Back Key Channel of Monetary Tightening,” by Nick Timiraos, appeared in…
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The SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday. Unlike the supportive messaging on most…
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The Fed came to the banking sector’s rescue in March 2023 with the Bank Term…
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Axios recently put out an article with the graph below. As shown, the wealthy, defined…
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There is a gap between the logic of the stock and bond markets. Most stock…
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Since 2022, credit card debt has grown 10% annually to a record high of $1.08…
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“U.S. (corporate) high-yield bonds have sold off at the fastest pace since March, when traders…
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Since January 2022, nominal GDP has grown by $2.5 trillion or 5.77% annually. Such a…
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Quite often, year-end trading is not a function of recent economic trends, earnings projections, or…
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Our first article of the year, January Stats & New Year Investing Resolutions for 2024,…
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Happy New Year! To get an idea of what may lie ahead in 2024, we…
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It’s the last trading day of 2023, and not much is happening around the market….
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Human capital is an important input for growth at non-manufacturing tech companies such as NVDA….
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Some institutional investors must only report their holdings by the end of a month or…
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Corporations predominately borrow from banks and credit investors via the corporate debt markets. Most often,…
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Houthi rebels are attacking Red Sea vessels and greatly limiting traffic in one of the…
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In Tuesday’s Commentary, we shared four indicators of market breadth. While they all show robust…
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Per a Bloomberg article entitled World’s Biggest ETF See Record $21 Billion Flow on Stock…
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The S&P 500 is only 2% below record highs set two years ago. It appears…
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The VIX index, measuring the implied volatility of the S&P 500, is now at its…
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Following Wednesday’s Fed meeting, ZeroHedge aptly titled an article, “Santa Powell Unleashes Global ‘Buy Everything”…
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The Fed’s pause since the last rate increase is five months old. To help appreciate…
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The Nasdaq rebalanced its holdings as expected yesterday. However, investors were not expecting the NASDAQ…
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The US now accounts for the most oil production in the world. Importantly, as we…
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The Fed offers banks and money market funds reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) to drain excess…
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JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon testified to Congress on Wednesday in a routine meeting about…
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The ADP jobs report came in at 103k versus the expected 130k. The ADP also…
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The Economist published an article entitled Is It Cheaper To Rent Or Buy Property? It…
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Per the Tweet of the Day, our SimpleVisor relative analysis tool suddenly shows the real…
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10-year U.S. Treasury note yields have fallen by nearly 0.75% since late October. Fundamentally supporting…
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When President Biden took office, investors assumed clean energy would be a top priority. Therefore,…
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Warren Buffett’s partner, Charlie Munger, passed away on Tuesday at the ripe age of 99….
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The existing home sales market has been at a standstill. Buyers are turning away due…
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With the holiday season in full swing, look out your window. You will see FedEx…
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From 2021 through 2022, the price of lithium carbonate, a key component of EV batteries,…
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Might the future of retirement saving plans for corporate employees be changing? Starting next year,…
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The Fed’s tone markedly changed in the weeks preceding the November 1 FOMC meeting. Many…
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The squeeze is on in the orange juice futures market. The price of orange juice…
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According to a recent article by the American Farm Bureau (AFB), Thanksgiving dinner will be…
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Michael Burry, who made a fortune shorting the subprime market in 2008, and was made…
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Goldman Sachs released its 2024 forecast for the S&P 500 and the economy. “We forecast…
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All four broad CPI inflation measures were below expectations for the first time in a…
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Moody’s, the last of the three major credit rating agencies to have an AAA rating…
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Our most recent article, CFNAI, The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number, shares an important…
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In 2021, used car prices often made headlines as one of the goods responsible for…
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On the eve of the Hamas raid on Israel, crude oil was trading at $83…
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From mid-July through September, the U.S. dollar rose steadily. Over the period, the dollar’s value…
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Over the last week, some of the largest and most well-followed investors, also known as…
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The October labor report, released Friday, indicated slowing job growth in the US last month….
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Almost a month ago, on October 7th, Hamas attacked Israel, and concerns of a much…
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In the November FOMC statement, Chairman Powell and his colleagues at the Fed did as…
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The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy meeting on Tuesday resulted in a shift away from…
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The growth of the global economy and the value of the world’s financial assets are…
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False narratives are stories market pundits tell to justify market actions. Sometimes, they are factual….
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The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (blue) fell to 90.8 from 91.3, remaining near…
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Shares of Coke and Pepsi were down about 5% on Thursday and trending lower as…
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Amazon is facing an existing FTC problem that escalated last week. On Tuesday, the Federal…
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The Treasury bond yield curve has a near-perfect track record for predicting recessions. Inverted yield…
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Higher mortgage rates are resulting in a shortage of inventory of used homes and a…
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Three months ago, Congress and the President avoided a shutdown and default on government debt…
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) are two very similar measures of…
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Retailers did well over the last few years as consumers were flush with savings. Reduced…
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Jerome Powell presents the Fed’s keynote speech for its annual Jackson Hole symposium this morning….
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Goldman Sach’s announced that it is selling its Personal Financial Management Unit. The group manages…
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U.S. Treasury yields have been rising recently on varied concerns. One such worry is that…
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This commentary did not get emailed out yesterday, please accept our apologies. The data has…
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Monday’s Daily Commentary highlighted four factors that could lead to a credit crunch in the…
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Jaret Seiberg of Cowen & Co. wrote an interesting report pointing to the potential of…
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Yesterday we learned that Exxon (XOM) is in talks with Tesla, Ford, and Volkswagen about…
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Ten and 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yields rose sharply, with their yields piercing 4%. The…
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The Fed has raised rates by 5.50% in a little over a year. For the…
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Albert Edwards of Societe Generale wrote a thought-provoking piece based on the graph below. He…
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The Magnificent Seven (Apple, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft) have been on a…
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The Federal Reserve closely follows how restrictive or easy its monetary policy is. While many…
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Over the last three years, massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus and irregular economic…
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Our most recent article, Treasury Yield Curves- Is This Inversion Different, explains why inverted yield…
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Over the last thirty years, the relationship between stock prices and stock market volatility has…
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Implied volatility in the stock (VIX) and bond markets (MOVE) tell an unusual tale of…
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Trading Bitcoin since its inception has been like riding a roller coaster. In January 2015,…
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“More than 100% of SPX market cap gains this year have been driven by just…
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In its recent earnings call, Costco’s CFO gave a unique warning about the potential for…
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We led a recent article about de-dollarization with the following quote: “For those losing sleep…
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Despite the Debt Cap circus and continual default threats, the dollar has bounced 2% over…
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Yesterday’s Commentary, Is the Fed Done, contemplates whether or not Wednesday’s rate hike was the…
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When most economic prognosticators forecast inflation, they often base it on money supply changes. At…
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Last week JB Hunt Transportation Services (JBHT) warned that the freight trucking sector was slowing…
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The graph below from Bloomberg provides an interesting analysis of what odds, so to speak,…
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In late 2020 and throughout 2021, earnings didn’t matter. That statement is a little tongue…
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After falling about 15% from October 2022 to late January 2023, the dollar index bounced…
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Our most recent newsletter (Analysts Warn of Recession. Analysts Disagree) discusses confusing signals emanating from…
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Bloomberg heralds “Nasdaq 100 Enters Bull Market as Bank Jitters Ease.” The Nasdaq is now…
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Long before Silicon Valley Bank failed, the banking sector was experiencing a silent bank run….
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The Silicon Valley Bank failure, originally considered a one-off event, is escalating and spreading. On…
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The chart below showing delinquent consumer loans is concerning but misleading. At first blush, the…
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Wednesday’s Home Purchase Index fell sharply to the lowest level since 1995. The index compiled…
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6-month and 1-year Treasury bills yields are above 5 percent, marking the first time a…
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Yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated: “You don’t have a recession when you have…
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While only a month into the new year, 2023 has been marked by a sector…
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its short-term interest rate at -.10% and vowed to…
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A golden cross occurs when a shorter moving average crosses above a longer moving average….
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Michael Kantro, CIO of Piper Sandler, uses the HOPE cycle to show the order in…
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While we are still in 2022, stocks traded on Thursday will settle in 2023. This…
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Mastercard’s SpendingPulse report provides valuable information on credit card spending through the holiday buying season….
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Extremely harsh weather conditions from winter storm Elliot resulted in thousands of flight cancellations last…
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China’s National Health Commission announced that approximately 250 million citizens, or 18% of its population,…
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The put-call ratio is a simple calculation comparing the number of outstanding puts versus calls….
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Quarterly earnings reports from FedEx and Nike were well received on Wall Street. While investors…
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While the world’s central banker’s aggressively hiked interest rates and curtailed QE to fight inflation,…
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The road map for 2023 may continue to depend heavily on the Fed’s monetary policy…
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The markets went through an extended period earlier this year where bad news was good…
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The key takeaway from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting: despite encouraging inflation news, the Fed believes they…
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As was widely expected, the Fed hiked rates by 50bps to 4.25% – 4.50%. Currently,…
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Stocks jumped out of the gate yesterday morning as lower-than-expected inflation readings led investors to…
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The U.S. Treasury department hit its debt limit on August 1st. As a result, they…
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Monetary policy governs financial market liquidity which drives asset prices. Therefore, as the Fed continues…
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Carvana, the online used car dealer, has had quite the fall from glory. On Wednesday,…
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As the Fed pulls liquidity from the financial system, those using too much leverage and…
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In Jerome Powell’s speech last week, which drove the markets 3% higher, he offered a…
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MarketWatch recently pointed out that two well-followed measures of consumer sentiment are diverging and possibly…
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Last Wednesday Powell stated: “wage growth remains well above levels that would be consistent with…
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Stocks shot higher on Wednesday after Chair Powell’s speech. Looking for good news, the bulls…
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According to the most recent AAII sentiment poll, bears have outnumbered bulls for 35 consecutive…
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At 1:30, Jerome Powell will update the public on his views. This will be his…
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Crude oil prices are now down on the year, despite almost doubling in the first…
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A recession is very unlikely if the only recession gauge one was following is the…
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The most closely followed measures of employment tend to be lagging indicators. However, there is…
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Recently we have noted that the odds are increasing that financial instability, or as we…
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On April 14, 2021, shares of Coinbase, a cryptocurrency broker/custodian, were first publically traded. The…
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Markets were spared when the Houston Astros won the world series. As we highlighted in…
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Meta cut 11,000 jobs. Twitter let 3,700 employees go. Stripe, Coinbase, and Microsoft all fired…
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Target reported poor earnings ($1.54 versus $2.13 expected) and revised its outlook lower. They claim…
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In addition to CPI, PPI, and PCE data, the Fed relies on consumer inflation expectations…
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“The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report….
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Bulls released a huge sigh of relief last week after encouraging inflation data prompted a…
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Stocks and bonds had an especially bullish reaction to new data out Thursday showing that…
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As we reported yesterday, a liquidity crunch brought cryptocurrency exchange FTX to its knees on…
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Remember the bullwhip effect? Retailers and wholesalers massively over-ordered merchandise following supply chain shocks just…
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All eyes will be on the Midterms today as investors assess the outcome’s implications for…
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As we wrote on Friday, investors were disappointed again last week after Jerome Powell failed…
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Stock investors are screaming “AAUGH!” as Jerome Powell duped them again. In one of the…
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The Fed took another step Wednesday on its path to slay inflation. As widely expected,…
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Monetary headwinds, already proving difficult for stock prices, are expected to strengthen in the next…
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The Financial Times reports that Tesla is holding preliminary talks with Glencore, a large commodity…
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The FAANGs are taking a Halloween bite out of many investors’ goody bags. FAANG stocks,…
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Q3 GDP rose nicely, but the Fed’s preferred yield curve has spoken. It says a…
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Since 1950 there have only been four other instances in which a balanced 60/40 stock/bond…
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Monday’s Commentary discussed the BOJ’s dual interventions to cap bond yields and prevent its currency…
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is intervening again in its currency market to prevent more…
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The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators Index (LEI) is a robust predictor of coming recessions,…
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Per Wikipedia, the Fog of War is “the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants…
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The latest release of the series Stranger Things helped Netflix (NFLX) achieve better-than-expected earnings and…
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You may be thinking, why should I care about bank deposits? There are a couple…
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Tesla’s fall from grace has been swift. The first graph below shows that over the…
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We lead with an appropriate cartoon from HedgeEye. In the current environment, investors appear singularly…
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CPI was higher than expected, primarily due to sharply rising shelter prices. Shelter prices are…
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Below, we share a summary of an article we published Wednesday. It discusses how the…
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Amazon kicked off its second Prime Day of 2022, offering great deals to its customers….
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In our article Bond Yields Are Defying Yesterday’s Logic, we walked through traditional drivers of…
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Despite rising interest rates and slowing economic activity, the jobs market remains robust. The BLS…
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The Federal Reserve has a big hand when it comes to market liquidity. While the…
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ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE: Our apologies for yesterday’s lack of new commentary. We had a technical glitch…
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Rumors are floating around that Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, is having financial difficulties. Accordingly,…
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This past quarter (Q3), investors took their lumps. However, seasonality analysis points to a positive…
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Thursday’s Daily Commentary led with the story of the Bank of England’s (BOE) temporary purchases…
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Just days after raising interest rates and starting QT, the Bank of England is taking…
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Many investors are frequently reallocating their holdings between stocks and bonds. This year, figuring out…
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The British Pound (GBP) opened trading on Sunday night at 1.08. Within the first hour…
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Why are stocks, bonds, and commodities tumbling? To answer, one only needs to look at…
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U.S. Investors woke to the following headline yesterday morning: “JAPAN TOP CURRENCY DIPLOMAT KANDA: FOREX…
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As we and many suspected, the Fed and Jerome Powell are not backing off their…
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At 2 pm ET, the Fed’s FOMC will update monetary policy. Given the Fed’s role…
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The Fed’s two-day policy meeting kicks off this morning with expectations of a 75bps Fed…
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Fed Ex stock fell about 20% after they delivered disappointing earnings and significantly lowered forward…
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The nation’s supply lines were spared a massive blow as the rail workers union and…
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In the tweet below, Lance asks investors a critical question. Is 4 percent enough of…
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This Friday’s quad witching options expirations can generate a lot of market volatility. At the…
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U.S. household net worth fell in 2Q22 by $6.1 trillion following a slight decline in…
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Traders dumped the U.S. dollar on Friday, and most asset classes rallied. It is becoming…
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The Fed’s media mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, let it be known…
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A year or two ago, politicians were demanding we need to flatten the curve. At…
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On Friday, the G7 announced a price cap on Russian oil. Russia quickly retaliated by…
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The administration warned that job growth would cool off in last Friday’s employment report. The…
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Following Powell’s hawkish speech last Friday, investors are not happy. Their concern is that Powell…
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Lithium is a key material in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Not surprisingly, with the rampant…
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The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet unwind, aka Quantitative Tightening (QT), ramps up today to 95…
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Two-year Treasury note yields neared 3.50% yesterday, the highest level since 2007. At that time,…
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Bloomberg recently published a disturbing article entitled- A ‘Tsunami of Shutoffs’: 20 Million US Homes…
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As we have noted, the Fed will often use the media, and in particular, Nick…
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The recent market uptrend is stalling. The culprit is most likely the coming annual Jackson…
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For the first time in 20 years, the euro-dollar pair is trading below 1.00 (parity)….
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In Monday’s commentary, we discussed how Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares rose almost five-fold…
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“Blood Bath” & Beyond (BBBY) was the latest meme stock to be forced into a…
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Short covering has stopped. Over the last couple of days, markets have meandered as investors…
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Stock markets have been on fire since the last round of inflation data which showed…
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Recent housing data further confirms that the “Great Reopening” housing boom is morphing into a…
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Regional manufacturing indexes tend to correlate strongly with economic activity. More importantly, they are often…
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San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has some hawkish comments in a Financial Times interview…
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Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal adds to the debate the bulls and bears…
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Finally, the BLS CPI report provided a bit of relief on the inflation front. Relief…
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Bond traders and economists pay close attention to various yield curves as they are good…
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NVIDIA (NVDA) and other chip makers are warning that chip sales are falling below expectations….
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The economy added 528k jobs in July, almost 300k more than expected. With the much…
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Traditionally high-growth companies are involved in new, life-changing technologies. Think of the now mature high-growth…
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The graph below from Crescat Capital shows that, in aggregate, the market-leading FAANG stocks saw…
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In just the last two weeks, gold prices have spiked by $85/ounce. Why? Some claim…
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Other than lower commodity prices, there are few other indicators of cooling inflation. That is…
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On the heels of disappointing earnings news from fellow retailers (Walmart and Bed Bath and…
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For the second quarter in a row, GDP was negative. Second quarter GDP fell 0.9%…
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market trading update
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A few months ago, we wrote the following about WMT’s first quarter earnings: “Walmart is…
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On Monday, MarketWatch published Its the End of “Fantasyland” for Big Tech and its Workers,…
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Bond investors have had a rough year. However, there is hope on the horizon. Despite…
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Commodities were a sea of red yesterday as the Chinese Yuan stumbled, and the ECB…
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Fed pivot? Zero Hedge shared a Bloomberg article yesterday titled “If The Fed Pivots Sooner…
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Most stock and bond investors have been punished by the Fed’s aggressive monetary stance designed…
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The graph below from Mott Capital Management warrants some caution heading into the next week’s…
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On Thursday, Fed Presidents Bullard and Waller talked down market expectations for a 1% rate…
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JP Morgan (JPM) kicked off the Q2 earnings season with disappointing results. JPM earnings per…
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The Consumer Price Index, CPI, rose above last month’s figures and economists’ expectations. June’s inflation…
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The latest NFIB- Small Business Optimism Survey fell for the sixth straight month. Per the…
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As we show below, gold (GLD gold ETF) prices have taken it on the chin…
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Earnings season starts next week, with banks and airlines leading the way. Last earnings season…
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The graph below shows the four largest fertilizer stocks (MOS, NTR, CF, and IPI) have…
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On Wednesday morning, the US Dollar hit a 20-year high. A strong dollar makes The…
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During June, the BBB-rated investment-grade corporate bond index rose 25bps more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasury…
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Bond markets are presenting quite a conundrum for investors. Over the last three months, the…
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As we roll into the Fourth of July holiday, we thought we would discuss another…
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At the end of each quarter, markets often experience heightened volatility as institutional money managers…
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There are a growing number of signs that a u-turn in inflation rates may be…
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Yet another regional Fed manufacturing survey warns of economic contraction. On Monday, the Dallas Fed…
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Rate increase expectations for the Fed are starting to fall rapidly as recent evidence suggests…
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Market fears subsided a bit over the past couple of days as Powell testified before…
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Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday morning. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to…
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The trillion-dollar question on nearly every investor’s mind lately is “When will the market bottom…
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The stock market is having its worst week since March 2020 when the Pandemic first…
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On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed revised its Q2 growth estimate to 0.0%. Yesterday, the Philadelphia…
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While the WSJ telegraphed the potential for a 75bps rate hike on Tuesday, the Fed’s…
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The graph below shows that 5yr yields have risen over 2% in 2022. Many in…
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The graph below shows that 2yr Treasury yields rose 0.25% on Friday, the largest one-day…
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The BLS CPI Inflation report surprised the markets, coming in hotter than expected. The surprises…
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In Thursday’s Commentary, we share the World Bank’s warning about global stagflation. We follow up…
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The World Bank is out with a stern warning that the global economy may be…
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In our May 19 Commentary, we shared commentary from Target’s CEO regarding the earnings and…
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As measured by VIX, Volatility has been elevated throughout the current downward trend. Such is…
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Unlike the weakening ADP Employment report, the BLS payrolls report highlights a very healthy labor…
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The following headline hit the wires Thursday morning: LAEL BRAINARD: VERY HARD TO SEE CASE…
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Yesterday the Federal Reserve began shrinking its balance sheet, kicking off a new QT era….
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Recent inflation data for Germany and Europe shocked economists on Monday, rising much more than…
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Like CPI, which was released two weeks ago, monthly PCE inflation was much lower than…
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Nvidia (NVDA) joins a long list of companies that reported decent earnings but reduced their…
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New home sales plummeted to an annualized rate of 591k, well below expectations of 750k….
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Social media company Snap’s stock fell over 40% in trading on Tuesday. Concerning us is…
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Last Friday, the S&P 500 briefly dipped to 3810, marking a 20.5% decline from its…
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It is no secret that Exxon and the energy sector, in general, have been the…
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The Fed pays a lot of attention to financial stability or market functioning, and they…
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Another day and another stern warning that consumers are struggling. Below we provide details on…
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Walmart posted earnings per share of $1.30, much weaker than expectations for $1.48. While the…
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The May New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell sharply into economic contraction levels…
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The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a rally to…
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Producer prices (PPI) for April met expectations rising .5%. While .5% is a big monthly…
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Ex-New York Fed President Bill Dudley seems to have it out for the Fed. Despite…
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Often markets bottom when investor sentiment is poor and peak when it’s high. As they…
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Fear, not inflation, is driving bond yields higher despite popular beliefs. The graph below shows…
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The S&P 500 was down seven points this past week. Last week’s extreme volatility made…
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Shares of ETSY plunged yesterday on a poor quarterly earnings report. We are not very…
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Meeting market expectations, the Fed raised rates by 50bps and will start Quantitative Tightening (QT)…
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The consensus is that Jerome Powell and the Fed will raise interest rates by 50bps…
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The national ISM Manufacturing Survey was unexpectedly weaker than expected, as shown below. This should…
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Shares of Amazon, the third-largest contributor to the S&P 500, fell over 10% on Friday….
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First-quarter GDP fell by 1.4% versus expectations for a 1.1% increase. As we discussed in…
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Apple Inc. will release its earnings after the close today. Apple Inc. is the largest…
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The robust 6.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely hit a…
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Many companies, including the largest in the United States, will release Q1 earnings this week….
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Gap stock (GPS) fell 20%, proving another victim of poor earnings. Executives blame supply line…
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The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.11% this week. The last time…
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Shares of Netflix (NFLX) lost over a third of their value on Wednesday after announcing…
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Despite mortgage rates nearing 5.50%, new homebuilders continue to file for building permits, and they…
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Many economists have warned that an inverted yield curve will lead to a recession. The…
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After announcing he took a 9.2% stake in Twitter a few weeks ago, Elon Musk…
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Michael, I, and the entire staff at RIA Advisors wanted to take this special day…
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The latest round of CPI inflation data confirms a troubling situation for many workers. Salaries,…
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Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned off $34 billion of ten-year notes. Despite yields rising sharply…
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Within today’s Commentary, we point out a few concerning market divergences. We lead with the…
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If you think the Fed is hawkish, you ain’t seen nothing yet. In a Bloomberg…
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With first-quarter earnings announcements starting soon, investors are trying to figure out how inflation will…
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The Dow Jones Transportation Index is down about 12% in just the last seven days,…
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In Monday’s Commentary, we wrote: “Keep an eye on Fed speeches for any guidance on…
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Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, announced he has accumulated a 9% stake in Twitter (TWTR). Shares…
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The most followed U.S. Treasury yield curve, 2yr vs. the 10yr, is now solidly inverted….
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Crude oil prices tumbled Thursday as President Biden announced the DOE would release 1 million…
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Restoration Hardware (RH) stock is trading over 10% lower as it missed earnings expectations despite…
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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly rose to 107.2, from 105.7. Despite the increase…
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The U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to flatten and, in some cases, invert and therefore…
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The VIX index gauging expected equity volatility is normalizing despite a sharp pick-up in yields,…
> Read More
On Thursday, Nvidia (NVDA) led the market and other chip stocks higher. It appears chip…
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So far, it has been predominately the defense, materials, agricultural, and energy companies most affected…
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Over the last few months, bond yields have surged higher. Higher yields are a tax…
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On Monday, Powell reiterated the need to normalize monetary policy. Per his speech: “There is…
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The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a strong rally…
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As we anticipated, stocks are rallying out of the FOMC meeting after fears of a…
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On March 3, 2020, the Federal Reserve reduced its Fed Funds rate and bought Treasury…
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The recent surge in gold and oil prices has been erased. While the Russian invasion…
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The S&P 500 just flashed a death cross. A death cross is a bearish technical…
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Not surprisingly, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey fell again. The index hit 59.7…
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The CPI year-over-year inflation rate, propelled by rising gas and used car prices, rose to…
> Read More
Stocks rallied on Wednesday as the Financial Times reported that the UAE will call upon…
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Gold was up $80 an ounce at its peak yesterday, and nickel prices catapulted higher,…
> Read More
The Fed will officially end the latest round of QE on Wednesday. The schedule below…
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While the media and public heavily focus on surging oil prices, wheat and other grain…
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The BLS will release February’s employment report at 8:30 ET this morning. Current expectations, as…
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Stocks rebounded despite a somewhat hawkish Congressional testimony by Powell and soaring crude oil prices….
> Read More
Chairman Powell will testify to Congress today and tomorrow and is likely to face many…
> Read More
The wild volatility in many asset classes continues as the Russian invasion trudges on. Peace…
> Read More
Stocks are being whipped around as volatility wreaks havoc on bulls and bears alike. The…
> Read More
If you think U.S. stocks are trading poorly, you may feel better looking at the…
> Read More
“Russia Invades Ukraine” is the media headline this morning as the thing concerning investors finally…
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Due to technical difficulties last night, there will be no daily commentary today. The daily…
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As we noted on Friday, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey reflects a decrease in bullish…
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The on and off again Russian invasion of Ukraine is heating back up, and with…
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Viacom (VIAC) joins Meta, Netflix, and a host of other companies that saw double-digit declines…
> Read More
Stock prices have been on a roller coaster, tracking the ebbs and flows of a…
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Energy stocks have finally taken a break from their upwards progress as they led the…
> Read More
Rumors were flying on Friday that a likely invasion of Kyiv by the Russians is…
> Read More
Bond investors panicked yesterday on higher than expected inflation. The most noticeable yield changes occurred…
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Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, one of the more dovish members of the FOMC, anticipates…
> Read More
Thus far in February, the volatility in markets is calm compared to the violent sessions…
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The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is approaching 2%. The last time 10-year Treasury…
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Individual stocks continue to show extreme volatility around their respective earnings announcements. The latest round…
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Stocks traded lower Thursday in large part due to Meta (Facebook) and the Bank of…
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This earnings season seems to be generating more volatility than is typical. Yesterday’s earnings releases…
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Shares of UPS rose 15% on Tuesday after reporting better than expected earnings. In addition,…
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It appears there is a brewing debate at the Fed regarding how to normalize monetary…
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The Russell 2000 Index, a composite of small stocks, closed Thursday down more than 20%…
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For those of you following the markets day and night, as we do, you likely…
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The moment Jerome Powell said the Fed will remove assets from their balance sheet “sooner…
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At 2 pm ET, the Fed will conclude its FOMC policy meeting and inform us…
> Read More
The S&P exhibited extreme volatility throughout the day on Monday. The market opened weaker and…
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Stocks bounced around Friday as investors look ahead to Wednesday’s important FOMC meeting. Fueling some…
> Read More
Over the past year, many stocks that benefited from the Pandemic lockdowns have given up…
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The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Stock index continues to struggle. On Wednesday, it fell 1.56% and…
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Shares of Goldman Sachs tumbled Tuesday as earnings fell $1.30 short of expectations and were…
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Pfizer and Moderna shares struggled on Friday as the Supreme Court overturned a federal (OSHA)…
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Airline stocks took off on Thursday on the back of better than expected earnings from…
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Inflation is now running at 7-percent, well above the Fed 2% objective. Following the CPI…
> Read More
At 8:30 am ET, the BLS will release the December CPI Report. Expectations are for…
> Read More
While the large-cap indexes trended higher throughout 2021, small-cap stocks (IWM) spent most of the…
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Investor exuberance for speculative investments is increasingly waning. For instance, GameStop (GME) surged 25% in…
> Read More
As we enter 2022, we wonder if this is the year we finally see a…
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The Fed minutes from their December 14-15th meeting, released yesterday, show a heightened concern with…
> Read More
Ford (F) is following Tesla’s path. Tesla shares surged on Monday after they released strong…
> Read More
Bonds struggled Monday following a couple of solid days to close out 2021. Ten-Year UST…
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As we say goodbye to 2021, we want to offer our sincere thank you for…
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The winning stocks of early 2021 are falling out of favor. Below we discuss how…
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The S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak Tuesday as technology and health care stocks…
> Read More
Markets rallied on Monday following this weekend’s strong retail sales data from Mastercard. Despite canceled…
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Wall Street wished stock investors a merry Christmas on Christmas Eve. The S&P closed Thursday…
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Despite the surging number of Covid cases, investors’ Omicron fears appear to be easing. It…
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Monday’s negative market narratives, Omicron, and the failure of Biden’s BBB spending package didn’t phase…
> Read More
Senator Manchin and Omicron and bears are weighing on investor sentiment heading into the holiday-shortened…
> Read More
GM is now shipping Hummer EV pickup trucks. Ford is halting reservations on its electric…
> Read More
It seems the market may have second thoughts about the acceleration of the hawkish Fed…
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In a decidedly hawkish statement, the Fed doubled taper plans. Additionally, they plan to hike…
> Read More
At 2 pm ET, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will alter monetary policy….
> Read More
High dividend stocks rose yesterday despite weakness in the major indexes. The weakness in the…
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The BLS gave us our monthly reminder that inflation is running hot. CPI is now…
> Read More
Bitcoin and stocks fell in light trading yesterday. As we show below from SimpleVisor, Bitcoin…
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Apple stock rose 2.25% yesterday to close over $175, a new all-time high. Shares in…
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Technology stocks led the markets higher on Tuesday. With little news on the tape, it…
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Yesterday morning an ominous Wall Street Journal article warned investors that the Fed will speed…
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Are value stocks in vogue? The price action of the last few days screams yes….
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Oil prices plummeted 5% yesterday morning as OPEC went ahead with a planned output hike…
> Read More
Cyber Monday stock gains erased a good chunk of Black Friday’s losses. Fear of another…
> Read More
The typical uneventful post-Thanksgiving Friday trading session was anything but that. Black Friday market discounts…
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As we show below, Initial Jobless Claims plunged to a level last seen in 1969….
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The NASDAQ was lower by over one percent at lunchtime but cut its losses in…
> Read More
President Biden renominated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for another four years as the head of…
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The Euro continues to tumble versus the dollar as Covid cases in Europe are spiking….
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Thanks to the FAANG stocks, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were higher on the day….
> Read More
Fed’s Williams says “we must think about how to shore up the Treasury Market so…
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“Crypto’s Crash,” says some financial news headlines. The reality is Bitcoin, Ethereum and others are…
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