Empire State Survey Warns of Economic Contraction
Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 17, 2022The May New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell sharply into economic contraction levels…
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The May New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell sharply into economic contraction levels…
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The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a rally to…
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Producer prices (PPI) for April met expectations rising .5%. While .5% is a big monthly…
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Ex-New York Fed President Bill Dudley seems to have it out for the Fed. Despite…
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Often markets bottom when investor sentiment is poor and peak when it’s high. As they…
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Fear, not inflation, is driving bond yields higher despite popular beliefs. The graph below shows…
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The S&P 500 was down seven points this past week. Last week’s extreme volatility made…
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Shares of ETSY plunged yesterday on a poor quarterly earnings report. We are not very…
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Meeting market expectations, the Fed raised rates by 50bps and will start Quantitative Tightening (QT)…
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The consensus is that Jerome Powell and the Fed will raise interest rates by 50bps…
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The national ISM Manufacturing Survey was unexpectedly weaker than expected, as shown below. This should…
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Shares of Amazon, the third-largest contributor to the S&P 500, fell over 10% on Friday….
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First-quarter GDP fell by 1.4% versus expectations for a 1.1% increase. As we discussed in…
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Apple Inc. will release its earnings after the close today. Apple Inc. is the largest…
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The robust 6.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely hit a…
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Many companies, including the largest in the United States, will release Q1 earnings this week….
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Gap stock (GPS) fell 20%, proving another victim of poor earnings. Executives blame supply line…
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The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.11% this week. The last time…
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Shares of Netflix (NFLX) lost over a third of their value on Wednesday after announcing…
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Despite mortgage rates nearing 5.50%, new homebuilders continue to file for building permits, and they…
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Many economists have warned that an inverted yield curve will lead to a recession. The…
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After announcing he took a 9.2% stake in Twitter a few weeks ago, Elon Musk…
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Michael, I, and the entire staff at RIA Advisors wanted to take this special day…
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The latest round of CPI inflation data confirms a troubling situation for many workers. Salaries,…
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Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned off $34 billion of ten-year notes. Despite yields rising sharply…
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Within today’s Commentary, we point out a few concerning market divergences. We lead with the…
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If you think the Fed is hawkish, you ain’t seen nothing yet. In a Bloomberg…
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With first-quarter earnings announcements starting soon, investors are trying to figure out how inflation will…
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The Dow Jones Transportation Index is down about 12% in just the last seven days,…
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In Monday’s Commentary, we wrote: “Keep an eye on Fed speeches for any guidance on…
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Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, announced he has accumulated a 9% stake in Twitter (TWTR). Shares…
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The most followed U.S. Treasury yield curve, 2yr vs. the 10yr, is now solidly inverted….
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Crude oil prices tumbled Thursday as President Biden announced the DOE would release 1 million…
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Restoration Hardware (RH) stock is trading over 10% lower as it missed earnings expectations despite…
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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly rose to 107.2, from 105.7. Despite the increase…
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The U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to flatten and, in some cases, invert and therefore…
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The VIX index gauging expected equity volatility is normalizing despite a sharp pick-up in yields,…
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On Thursday, Nvidia (NVDA) led the market and other chip stocks higher. It appears chip…
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So far, it has been predominately the defense, materials, agricultural, and energy companies most affected…
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Over the last few months, bond yields have surged higher. Higher yields are a tax…
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On Monday, Powell reiterated the need to normalize monetary policy. Per his speech: “There is…
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The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a strong rally…
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As we anticipated, stocks are rallying out of the FOMC meeting after fears of a…
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On March 3, 2020, the Federal Reserve reduced its Fed Funds rate and bought Treasury…
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The recent surge in gold and oil prices has been erased. While the Russian invasion…
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The S&P 500 just flashed a death cross. A death cross is a bearish technical…
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Not surprisingly, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey fell again. The index hit 59.7…
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The CPI year-over-year inflation rate, propelled by rising gas and used car prices, rose to…
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Stocks rallied on Wednesday as the Financial Times reported that the UAE will call upon…
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Gold was up $80 an ounce at its peak yesterday, and nickel prices catapulted higher,…
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The Fed will officially end the latest round of QE on Wednesday. The schedule below…
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While the media and public heavily focus on surging oil prices, wheat and other grain…
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The BLS will release February’s employment report at 8:30 ET this morning. Current expectations, as…
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Stocks rebounded despite a somewhat hawkish Congressional testimony by Powell and soaring crude oil prices….
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Chairman Powell will testify to Congress today and tomorrow and is likely to face many…
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The wild volatility in many asset classes continues as the Russian invasion trudges on. Peace…
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Stocks are being whipped around as volatility wreaks havoc on bulls and bears alike. The…
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If you think U.S. stocks are trading poorly, you may feel better looking at the…
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“Russia Invades Ukraine” is the media headline this morning as the thing concerning investors finally…
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Due to technical difficulties last night, there will be no daily commentary today. The daily…
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As we noted on Friday, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey reflects a decrease in bullish…
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The on and off again Russian invasion of Ukraine is heating back up, and with…
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Viacom (VIAC) joins Meta, Netflix, and a host of other companies that saw double-digit declines…
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Stock prices have been on a roller coaster, tracking the ebbs and flows of a…
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Energy stocks have finally taken a break from their upwards progress as they led the…
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Rumors were flying on Friday that a likely invasion of Kyiv by the Russians is…
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Bond investors panicked yesterday on higher than expected inflation. The most noticeable yield changes occurred…
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Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, one of the more dovish members of the FOMC, anticipates…
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Thus far in February, the volatility in markets is calm compared to the violent sessions…
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The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is approaching 2%. The last time 10-year Treasury…
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Individual stocks continue to show extreme volatility around their respective earnings announcements. The latest round…
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Stocks traded lower Thursday in large part due to Meta (Facebook) and the Bank of…
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This earnings season seems to be generating more volatility than is typical. Yesterday’s earnings releases…
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Shares of UPS rose 15% on Tuesday after reporting better than expected earnings. In addition,…
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It appears there is a brewing debate at the Fed regarding how to normalize monetary…
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The Russell 2000 Index, a composite of small stocks, closed Thursday down more than 20%…
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For those of you following the markets day and night, as we do, you likely…
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The moment Jerome Powell said the Fed will remove assets from their balance sheet “sooner…
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At 2 pm ET, the Fed will conclude its FOMC policy meeting and inform us…
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The S&P exhibited extreme volatility throughout the day on Monday. The market opened weaker and…
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Stocks bounced around Friday as investors look ahead to Wednesday’s important FOMC meeting. Fueling some…
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Over the past year, many stocks that benefited from the Pandemic lockdowns have given up…
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The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Stock index continues to struggle. On Wednesday, it fell 1.56% and…
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Shares of Goldman Sachs tumbled Tuesday as earnings fell $1.30 short of expectations and were…
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Pfizer and Moderna shares struggled on Friday as the Supreme Court overturned a federal (OSHA)…
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Airline stocks took off on Thursday on the back of better than expected earnings from…
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Inflation is now running at 7-percent, well above the Fed 2% objective. Following the CPI…
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At 8:30 am ET, the BLS will release the December CPI Report. Expectations are for…
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While the large-cap indexes trended higher throughout 2021, small-cap stocks (IWM) spent most of the…
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Investor exuberance for speculative investments is increasingly waning. For instance, GameStop (GME) surged 25% in…
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As we enter 2022, we wonder if this is the year we finally see a…
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The Fed minutes from their December 14-15th meeting, released yesterday, show a heightened concern with…
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Ford (F) is following Tesla’s path. Tesla shares surged on Monday after they released strong…
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Bonds struggled Monday following a couple of solid days to close out 2021. Ten-Year UST…
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As many investors look ahead to what 2022 may bring, they tend to rely on…
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As we say goodbye to 2021, we want to offer our sincere thank you for…
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The winning stocks of early 2021 are falling out of favor. Below we discuss how…
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The S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak Tuesday as technology and health care stocks…
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Markets rallied on Monday following this weekend’s strong retail sales data from Mastercard. Despite canceled…
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Wall Street wished stock investors a merry Christmas on Christmas Eve. The S&P closed Thursday…
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Despite the surging number of Covid cases, investors’ Omicron fears appear to be easing. It…
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Monday’s negative market narratives, Omicron, and the failure of Biden’s BBB spending package didn’t phase…
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Senator Manchin and Omicron and bears are weighing on investor sentiment heading into the holiday-shortened…
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GM is now shipping Hummer EV pickup trucks. Ford is halting reservations on its electric…
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It seems the market may have second thoughts about the acceleration of the hawkish Fed…
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In a decidedly hawkish statement, the Fed doubled taper plans. Additionally, they plan to hike…
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At 2 pm ET, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will alter monetary policy….
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High dividend stocks rose yesterday despite weakness in the major indexes. The weakness in the…
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The BLS gave us our monthly reminder that inflation is running hot. CPI is now…
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Bitcoin and stocks fell in light trading yesterday. As we show below from SimpleVisor, Bitcoin…
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Apple stock rose 2.25% yesterday to close over $175, a new all-time high. Shares in…
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Technology stocks led the markets higher on Tuesday. With little news on the tape, it…
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Yesterday morning an ominous Wall Street Journal article warned investors that the Fed will speed…
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Are value stocks in vogue? The price action of the last few days screams yes….
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Oil prices plummeted 5% yesterday morning as OPEC went ahead with a planned output hike…
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News of the Omicron Variant showing up in California shook investors and pushed stocks from…
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Jerome Powell has been using the words “transitory inflation” to characterize the recent bout of…
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Cyber Monday stock gains erased a good chunk of Black Friday’s losses. Fear of another…
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The typical uneventful post-Thanksgiving Friday trading session was anything but that. Black Friday market discounts…
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As we show below, Initial Jobless Claims plunged to a level last seen in 1969….
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The NASDAQ was lower by over one percent at lunchtime but cut its losses in…
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President Biden renominated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for another four years as the head of…
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The Euro continues to tumble versus the dollar as Covid cases in Europe are spiking….
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Thanks to the FAANG stocks, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were higher on the day….
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Fed’s Williams says “we must think about how to shore up the Treasury Market so…
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“Crypto’s Crash,” says some financial news headlines. The reality is Bitcoin, Ethereum and others are…
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