Is Credit Suisse On The Ropes?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 4, 2022

Rumors are floating around that Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, is having financial difficulties. Accordingly,…

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Q4 Brings Hope After a Dismal Q3

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Oct 3, 2022

This past quarter (Q3), investors took their lumps. However, seasonality analysis points to a positive…

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Pension Funds and Leverage Threaten Financial Stability

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 30, 2022

Thursday’s Daily Commentary led with the story of the Bank of England’s (BOE) temporary purchases…

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Bank of England Cries Uncle

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 29, 2022

Just days after raising interest rates and starting QT, the Bank of England is taking…

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Stocks or Bonds?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 28, 2022

Many investors are frequently reallocating their holdings between stocks and bonds. This year, figuring out…

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FX Volatility Threatens The Fed’s Plans

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 27, 2022

The British Pound (GBP) opened trading on Sunday night at 1.08. Within the first hour…

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Dollar Strength Leading to Investor Pain

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 26, 2022

Why are stocks, bonds, and commodities tumbling? To answer, one only needs to look at…

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Japan Says Enough is Enough

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 23, 2022

U.S. Investors woke to the following headline yesterday morning: “JAPAN TOP CURRENCY DIPLOMAT KANDA: FOREX…

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Hawkish Tone Prevails at the Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 22, 2022

As we and many suspected, the Fed and Jerome Powell are not backing off their…

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FOMC Policy Alternatives- Hawkish or Dovish?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 21, 2022

At 2 pm ET, the Fed’s FOMC will update monetary policy. Given the Fed’s role…

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100bps? Fed Meeting Kicks Off

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 20, 2022

The Fed’s two-day policy meeting kicks off this morning with expectations of a 75bps Fed…

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Fed Ex Says Global Recession is Here

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 19, 2022

Fed Ex stock fell about 20% after they delivered disappointing earnings and significantly lowered forward…

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Rail Strike Averted- Price Wage Spiral Accentuated

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 16, 2022

The nation’s supply lines were spared a massive blow as the rail workers union and…

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4 Percent Money Market Yields- Is It Enough?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 15, 2022

In the tweet below, Lance asks investors a critical question. Is 4 percent enough of…

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Options Expiration On Friday: Buckle Up

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 14, 2022

This Friday’s quad witching options expirations can generate a lot of market volatility. At the…

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Household Net Worth Plummets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 13, 2022

U.S. household net worth fell in 2Q22 by $6.1 trillion following a slight decline in…

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Dollar Dump and Everything Else Jumps

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 12, 2022

Traders dumped the U.S. dollar on Friday, and most asset classes rallied. It is becoming…

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Goldman Sachs Follows The Fed’s Lead

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 9, 2022

The Fed’s media mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, let it be known…

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Flatten The Curve, Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 8, 2022

A year or two ago, politicians were demanding we need to flatten the curve. At…

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OPEC Production Cuts- Does It Matter?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 7, 2022

On Friday, the G7 announced a price cap on Russian oil. Russia quickly retaliated by…

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Job Growth Remains Strong

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 6, 2022

The administration warned that job growth would cool off in last Friday’s employment report. The…

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Good News May Not Be Good For Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 2, 2022

Following Powell’s hawkish speech last Friday, investors are not happy. Their concern is that Powell…

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Got Lithium?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Sep 1, 2022

Lithium is a key material in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Not surprisingly, with the rampant…

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95 Billion a Month of Liquidity Drainage Starts Today

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 31, 2022

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet unwind, aka Quantitative Tightening (QT), ramps up today to 95…

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Two-Year Yields Highest Since 2007

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 30, 2022

Two-year Treasury note yields neared 3.50% yesterday, the highest level since 2007. At that time,…

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Energy Bill Crisis

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 29, 2022

Bloomberg recently published a disturbing article entitled- A ‘Tsunami of Shutoffs’: 20 Million US Homes…

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Fed Trial Balloon is Floating Over Jackson Hole

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 26, 2022

As we have noted, the Fed will often use the media, and in particular, Nick…

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Jackson Hole Conference Slows the Bulls

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 25, 2022

The recent market uptrend is stalling. The culprit is most likely the coming annual Jackson…

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Euro-Dollar Parity

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 24, 2022

For the first time in 20 years, the euro-dollar pair is trading below 1.00 (parity)….

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Meme Stocks On A Roller Coaster

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 23, 2022

In Monday’s commentary, we discussed how Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares rose almost five-fold…

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Blood Bath & Beyond

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 22, 2022

“Blood Bath” & Beyond (BBBY) was the latest meme stock to be forced into a…

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Short Covering Grinds To A Halt

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 19, 2022

Short covering has stopped. Over the last couple of days, markets have meandered as investors…

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UK CPI Threatens the “Peak CPI” Narrative

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 18, 2022

Stock markets have been on fire since the last round of inflation data which showed…

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A Housing Recession Is Upon Us

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 17, 2022

Recent housing data further confirms that the “Great Reopening” housing boom is morphing into a…

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Empire State Index Posts Sharp Drop

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 16, 2022

Regional manufacturing indexes tend to correlate strongly with economic activity. More importantly, they are often…

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Mary Daly Warns The Fed Has Work To Do

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 15, 2022

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has some hawkish comments in a Financial Times interview…

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Bull or Bear, Place Your Bets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 12, 2022

Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal adds to the debate the bulls and bears…

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Inflation Relief, At Last!

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 10, 2022

Finally, the BLS CPI report provided a bit of relief on the inflation front. Relief…

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Yield Curves and The Alarm They Are About to Trigger

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 10, 2022

Bond traders and economists pay close attention to various yield curves as they are good…

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NVDA Pre-announces Disappointing Earnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 9, 2022

NVIDIA (NVDA) and other chip makers are warning that chip sales are falling below expectations….

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NBER Recession Odds Fade With Strong Jobs Report

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 8, 2022

The economy added 528k jobs in July, almost 300k more than expected. With the much…

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High-Growth Stocks Tomorrow May Not Look Like Today’s

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 5, 2022

Traditionally high-growth companies are involved in new, life-changing technologies. Think of the now mature high-growth…

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FAANG Stocks Sales Are Slipping

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 4, 2022

The graph below from Crescat Capital shows that, in aggregate, the market-leading FAANG stocks saw…

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Gold Is Rising as Real Yields Fall

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 3, 2022

In just the last two weeks, gold prices have spiked by $85/ounce. Why? Some claim…

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ISM Prices Paid Plummets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 2, 2022

Other than lower commodity prices, there are few other indicators of cooling inflation. That is…

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Amazon Surges Ahead

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Aug 1, 2022

On the heels of disappointing earnings news from fellow retailers (Walmart and Bed Bath and…

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Negative GDP Again – Are We In A Recession?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 29, 2022

For the second quarter in a row, GDP was negative. Second quarter GDP fell 0.9%…

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Inflation Fears Trump Recession Worries

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 28, 2022

market trading update

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WMT Strikes Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 27, 2022

A few months ago, we wrote the following about WMT’s first quarter earnings: “Walmart is…

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Tech Layoffs Dampening Employment Picture

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 26, 2022

On Monday, MarketWatch published Its the End of “Fantasyland” for Big Tech and its Workers,…

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Did Yields Peak?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 25, 2022

Bond investors have had a rough year. However, there is hope on the horizon. Despite…

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Yuan Stumbles, ECB Surprises, and Commodities Fall

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 22, 2022

Commodities were a sea of red yesterday as the Chinese Yuan stumbled, and the ECB…

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Is a Fed Pivot Rally In The Cards?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 21, 2022

Fed pivot? Zero Hedge shared a Bloomberg article yesterday titled “If The Fed Pivots Sooner…

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Savers Rejoice Over 3% Yields- Should They?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 20, 2022

Most stock and bond investors have been punished by the Fed’s aggressive monetary stance designed…

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Fed Meeting is Next Week- Buckle Up This Week

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 19, 2022

The graph below from Mott Capital Management warrants some caution heading into the next week’s…

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Fed Presidents Talk Down a 1% Rate Hike

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 18, 2022

On Thursday, Fed Presidents Bullard and Waller talked down market expectations for a 1% rate…

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JPM Braces For Recession

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 15, 2022

JP Morgan (JPM) kicked off the Q2 earnings season with disappointing results. JPM earnings per…

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Does The Consumer Price Index Augur a 1% Rate Hike?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 14, 2022

The Consumer Price Index, CPI, rose above last month’s figures and economists’ expectations. June’s inflation…

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Small Business Expectations Hit Record Lows

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 13, 2022

The latest NFIB- Small Business Optimism Survey fell for the sixth straight month. Per the…

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Gold Price Languishes, What’s Next?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 12, 2022

As we show below, gold (GLD gold ETF) prices have taken it on the chin…

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Earnings Season Is Upon Us. Are Estimates Too High?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 11, 2022

Earnings season starts next week, with banks and airlines leading the way. Last earnings season…

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Fertilizer Stocks Plummet With Agricultural Prices

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 8, 2022

The graph below shows the four largest fertilizer stocks (MOS, NTR, CF, and IPI) have…

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US Dollar Soars, Further Stifling Economic Growth

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 7, 2022

On Wednesday morning, the US Dollar hit a 20-year high. A strong dollar makes The…

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Corporate Bond Spreads Raise Concerns

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 6, 2022

During June, the BBB-rated investment-grade corporate bond index rose 25bps more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasury…

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The Bond Market Is Presenting Mixed Messages

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 5, 2022

Bond markets are presenting quite a conundrum for investors. Over the last three months, the…

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Gas Tax Holidays- Do They Work?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jul 1, 2022

As we roll into the Fourth of July holiday, we thought we would discuss another…

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Quarter End Window Dressing, Rebalancing, and Volatility

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 30, 2022

At the end of each quarter, markets often experience heightened volatility as institutional money managers…

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Inflation U-Turn Ahead

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 29, 2022

There are a growing number of signs that a u-turn in inflation rates may be…

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Dallas Fed, Yet Another Recession Warning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 28, 2022

Yet another regional Fed manufacturing survey warns of economic contraction. On Monday, the Dallas Fed…

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Rate Increase Expectations Are Starting To Fall

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 27, 2022

Rate increase expectations for the Fed are starting to fall rapidly as recent evidence suggests…

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Market Fears Subside On Powell’s Testimony

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 24, 2022

Market fears subsided a bit over the past couple of days as Powell testified before…

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Powell Admits Possibility of Recession; Dudley Claims It’s Inevitable

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 23, 2022

Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday morning. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to…

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When Will “The Bottom” Be In? History Points to the Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 22, 2022

The trillion-dollar question on nearly every investor’s mind lately is “When will the market bottom…

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Is A Tradable Bottom In Sight?

Written by Lance Roberts | Jun 21, 2022

The stock market is having its worst week since March 2020 when the Pandemic first…

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Philadelphia Fed, Like Atlanta Fed, Signals Weakness

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 17, 2022

On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed revised its Q2 growth estimate to 0.0%. Yesterday, the Philadelphia…

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75bps Of Shock and Awe Calms Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 16, 2022

While the WSJ telegraphed the potential for a 75bps rate hike on Tuesday, the Fed’s…

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Inflation Expectations Are Flat- What Gives?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 15, 2022

The graph below shows that 5yr yields have risen over 2% in 2022. Many in…

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2yr Treasury Yields Soar

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 14, 2022

The graph below shows that 2yr Treasury yields rose 0.25% on Friday, the largest one-day…

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CPI – Onward and Upward

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 13, 2022

The BLS CPI Inflation report surprised the markets, coming in hotter than expected. The surprises…

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CFO Survey Points To Recession Risk

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 10, 2022

In Thursday’s Commentary, we share the World Bank’s warning about global stagflation. We follow up…

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World Bank Warns of Global Stagflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 9, 2022

The World Bank is out with a stern warning that the global economy may be…

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Target Warns Yet Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 8, 2022

In our May 19 Commentary, we shared commentary from Target’s CEO regarding the earnings and…

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Volatility Ahead: VIX Offers Caution To Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 7, 2022

As measured by VIX, Volatility has been elevated throughout the current downward trend. Such is…

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Payrolls Report Shows Strong Labor Market

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 6, 2022

Unlike the weakening ADP Employment report, the BLS payrolls report highlights a very healthy labor…

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Lael Brainard Squashes Talk of a “Stall”

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 3, 2022

The following headline hit the wires Thursday morning: LAEL BRAINARD: VERY HARD TO SEE CASE…

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The QT Era Has Begun

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 2, 2022

Yesterday the Federal Reserve began shrinking its balance sheet, kicking off a new QT era….

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German Inflation Shock Pushes Yields Higher

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jun 1, 2022

Recent inflation data for Germany and Europe shocked economists on Monday, rising much more than…

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PCE Prices Offers Optimism Inflation Has Peaked

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 31, 2022

Like CPI, which was released two weeks ago, monthly PCE inflation was much lower than…

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Did Nvidia Signal a Change in Sentiment?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 27, 2022

Nvidia (NVDA) joins a long list of companies that reported decent earnings but reduced their…

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New Home Sales Plunge – Recession Evidence Strengthens

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 26, 2022

New home sales plummeted to an annualized rate of 591k, well below expectations of 750k….

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Snap Stock Mishap!

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 25, 2022

Social media company Snap’s stock fell over 40% in trading on Tuesday. Concerning us is…

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Bear Market Expectations

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 24, 2022

Last Friday, the S&P 500 briefly dipped to 3810, marking a 20.5% decline from its…

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Exxon and Energy Stocks Are On Fire

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 23, 2022

It is no secret that Exxon and the energy sector, in general, have been the…

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Financial Instability- Junk Bond Spreads Perking Up

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 20, 2022

The Fed pays a lot of attention to financial stability or market functioning, and they…

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Consumers Are Struggling

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 19, 2022

Another day and another stern warning that consumers are struggling. Below we provide details on…

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Walmart Slumps As Inflation Takes Its Toll

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 18, 2022

Walmart posted earnings per share of $1.30, much weaker than expectations for $1.48. While the…

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Empire State Survey Warns of Economic Contraction

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 17, 2022

The May New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell sharply into economic contraction levels…

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Strong Finish to a Volatile Week for Stocks

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 16, 2022

The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a rally to…

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PPI and CPI: Are They Peaking?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 13, 2022

Producer prices (PPI) for April met expectations rising .5%. While .5% is a big monthly…

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Bill Dudley Bashes The Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 12, 2022

Ex-New York Fed President Bill Dudley seems to have it out for the Fed. Despite…

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Investor Sentiment Is Horrendous- Is That A Bullish Sign?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 11, 2022

Often markets bottom when investor sentiment is poor and peak when it’s high. As they…

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Fear is Driving Yields Higher, Not Inflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 10, 2022

Fear, not inflation, is driving bond yields higher despite popular beliefs. The graph below shows…

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Fat Tails Scare Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 9, 2022

The S&P 500 was down seven points this past week. Last week’s extreme volatility made…

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ETSY Falls Victim to Strapped Consumers

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 6, 2022

Shares of ETSY plunged yesterday on a poor quarterly earnings report. We are not very…

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Expectations Met – The Fed Delivers

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 5, 2022

Meeting market expectations, the Fed raised rates by 50bps and will start Quantitative Tightening (QT)…

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Powell Is In The Batters Box

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 4, 2022

The consensus is that Jerome Powell and the Fed will raise interest rates by 50bps…

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ISM- Bad News Is Good News?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 3, 2022

The national ISM Manufacturing Survey was unexpectedly weaker than expected, as shown below. This should…

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Stocks Slump as Amazon Weighs on the Market

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 2, 2022

Shares of Amazon, the third-largest contributor to the S&P 500, fell over 10% on Friday….

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GDP Falls As Inflation Takes Hold

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 29, 2022

First-quarter GDP fell by 1.4% versus expectations for a 1.1% increase. As we discussed in…

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Apple Inc. Earnings Warnings Fall on Deaf Ears

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 28, 2022

Apple Inc. will release its earnings after the close today. Apple Inc. is the largest…

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecasts Negligable Growth

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 27, 2022

The robust 6.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely hit a…

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Earnings Releases Straight Ahead: Buckle Up!

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 26, 2022

Many companies, including the largest in the United States, will release Q1 earnings this week….

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Gap Gaps Lower On Poor Earnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 25, 2022

Gap stock (GPS) fell 20%, proving another victim of poor earnings. Executives blame supply line…

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Home Mortgage Rates Weigh On Home Prices

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 22, 2022

The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.11% this week. The last time…

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Netflix Plummets… Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 21, 2022

Shares of Netflix (NFLX) lost over a third of their value on Wednesday after announcing…

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Homebuilders Are Not Scared By Higher Mortgage Rates

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 20, 2022

Despite mortgage rates nearing 5.50%, new homebuilders continue to file for building permits, and they…

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Uninverted Yield Curve- Are We Out Of The Woods?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 19, 2022

Many economists have warned that an inverted yield curve will lead to a recession. The…

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Twitter: Another Arrow in Musk’s Quiver?

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 18, 2022

After announcing he took a 9.2% stake in Twitter a few weeks ago, Elon Musk…

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Happy Easter

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 15, 2022

Michael, I, and the entire staff at RIA Advisors wanted to take this special day…

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Salaries Lag Inflation: Foretelling Economic Weakness

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 14, 2022

The latest round of CPI inflation data confirms a troubling situation for many workers. Salaries,…

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Treasury Auction Scares Bond Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 13, 2022

Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned off $34 billion of ten-year notes. Despite yields rising sharply…

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Energy Stocks or Crude Oil – Which Is Right?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 12, 2022

Within today’s Commentary, we point out a few concerning market divergences. We lead with the…

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Dudley Says Lower Stock Prices Will Tame Inflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 11, 2022

If you think the Fed is hawkish, you ain’t seen nothing yet. In a Bloomberg…

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Conagra Warns About Inflation

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 8, 2022

With first-quarter earnings announcements starting soon, investors are trying to figure out how inflation will…

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Transportation Index Bears Watching

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 7, 2022

The Dow Jones Transportation Index is down about 12% in just the last seven days,…

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Brainard Scares Investors with QT

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 6, 2022

In Monday’s Commentary, we wrote: “Keep an eye on Fed speeches for any guidance on…

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Musk Takes A Stake in Twitter

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 5, 2022

Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, announced he has accumulated a 9% stake in Twitter (TWTR). Shares…

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Yield Curve Inverts On Strong Employment Report

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 4, 2022

The most followed U.S. Treasury yield curve, 2yr vs. the 10yr, is now solidly inverted….

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Crude Oil Prices Fall As Biden Releases More Oil

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Apr 1, 2022

Crude oil prices tumbled Thursday as President Biden announced the DOE would release 1 million…

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Restoration Hardware Has Telling Commentary

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 31, 2022

Restoration Hardware (RH) stock is trading over 10% lower as it missed earnings expectations despite…

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Consumer Confidence Rises

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 30, 2022

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly rose to 107.2, from 105.7. Despite the increase…

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Yield Curve Recession Warning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 29, 2022

The U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to flatten and, in some cases, invert and therefore…

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VIX Fades Despite A Wall Of Worry

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 28, 2022

The VIX index gauging expected equity volatility is normalizing despite a sharp pick-up in yields,…

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Chips Ahoy! Semiconductor Stocks Lead the Way

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 25, 2022

On Thursday, Nvidia (NVDA) led the market and other chip stocks higher. It appears chip…

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Adobe Shares Fall Due to the Russian Conflict

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 24, 2022

So far, it has been predominately the defense, materials, agricultural, and energy companies most affected…

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Yield Surge Yet Stocks Rally On

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 23, 2022

Over the last few months, bond yields have surged higher. Higher yields are a tax…

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Interest Rate Cuts On The Horizon

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 22, 2022

On Monday, Powell reiterated the need to normalize monetary policy. Per his speech: “There is…

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Positive Note As The S&P 500 Rallies On Fed

Written by Nick Lane | Mar 21, 2022

The S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a strong rally…

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Equities Rally into Quadruple Witching

Written by Nick Lane | Mar 18, 2022

As we anticipated, stocks are rallying out of the FOMC meeting after fears of a…

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Fed Funds Upped by .25% as Fed Embarks on Tightening Path

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 17, 2022

On March 3, 2020, the Federal Reserve reduced its Fed Funds rate and bought Treasury…

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Gold and Oil Prices Tumble As The War Premium Fades

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 16, 2022

The recent surge in gold and oil prices has been erased. While the Russian invasion…

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Death Cross and Recession Warnings

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 15, 2022

The S&P 500 just flashed a death cross. A death cross is a bearish technical…

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Consumer Sentiment Survey Worsens Driving Recession Concerns

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 14, 2022

Not surprisingly, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey fell again. The index hit 59.7…

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Inflation Rate Rises to 40 Year Highs

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 11, 2022

The CPI year-over-year inflation rate, propelled by rising gas and used car prices, rose to…

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OPEC to the Rescue

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 10, 2022

Stocks rallied on Wednesday as the Financial Times reported that the UAE will call upon…

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Gold and Nickel- The Latest Commodities to Surge

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 9, 2022

Gold was up $80 an ounce at its peak yesterday, and nickel prices catapulted higher,…

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QE Is Dead, Long Live QE

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 8, 2022

The Fed will officially end the latest round of QE on Wednesday. The schedule below…

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Wheat Prices Further Stoke Inflation Concerns

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 7, 2022

While the media and public heavily focus on surging oil prices, wheat and other grain…

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BLS Employment Report This Morning

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 4, 2022

The BLS will release February’s employment report at 8:30 ET this morning. Current expectations, as…

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Oil Soars, Powell Speaks, and Stocks Rebound

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 3, 2022

Stocks rebounded despite a somewhat hawkish Congressional testimony by Powell and soaring crude oil prices….

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Invasion and Inflation- The Fed is Cornered

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 2, 2022

Chairman Powell will testify to Congress today and tomorrow and is likely to face many…

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Asset Volatility Continues As Peace Seems Tricky

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Mar 1, 2022

The wild volatility in many asset classes continues as the Russian invasion trudges on. Peace…

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Stock Volatility Reigns Supreme

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 28, 2022

Stocks are being whipped around as volatility wreaks havoc on bulls and bears alike. The…

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Russian Stock Market Plummets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 25, 2022

If you think U.S. stocks are trading poorly, you may feel better looking at the…

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Russia Invades

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 24, 2022

“Russia Invades Ukraine” is the media headline this morning as the thing concerning investors finally…

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Technical Difficulties

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 23, 2022

Due to technical difficulties last night, there will be no daily commentary today. The daily…

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Bulls Dwindle As The Fed Prepares to Buckle Down

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 21, 2022

As we noted on Friday, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey reflects a decrease in bullish…

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Gold and Bonds Run As The War Drums Beat

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 18, 2022

The on and off again Russian invasion of Ukraine is heating back up, and with…

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Viacom – The Latest Earnings Victim

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 17, 2022

Viacom (VIAC) joins Meta, Netflix, and a host of other companies that saw double-digit declines…

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Russia Withdraws Troops and Stocks Rally

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 16, 2022

Stock prices have been on a roller coaster, tracking the ebbs and flows of a…

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Energy Stocks Finally Break

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 15, 2022

Energy stocks have finally taken a break from their upwards progress as they led the…

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Russian Invasion of Kyiv Helps Gold and Oil

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 14, 2022

Rumors were flying on Friday that a likely invasion of Kyiv by the Russians is…

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Bond Investors Fret: Bullard Calls for 100bps by July

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 11, 2022

Bond investors panicked yesterday on higher than expected inflation. The most noticeable yield changes occurred…

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Bostic Downplays Inflation and Stocks Run

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 10, 2022

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, one of the more dovish members of the FOMC, anticipates…

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Markets Calm Ahead of the CPI Storm

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 9, 2022

Thus far in February, the volatility in markets is calm compared to the violent sessions…

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Treasury Yields Hitting Key Levels

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 8, 2022

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is approaching 2%. The last time 10-year Treasury…

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Earnings Volatility And A Red Hot Labor Market

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 7, 2022

Individual stocks continue to show extreme volatility around their respective earnings announcements. The latest round…

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Meta And The BOE Lead Markets Lower

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 4, 2022

Stocks traded lower Thursday in large part due to Meta (Facebook) and the Bank of…

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Paypal Plummets, Meta Dumps, and Google Soars

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 3, 2022

This earnings season seems to be generating more volatility than is typical. Yesterday’s earnings releases…

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UPS Helps The S&P 500 To A Third Straight Gain

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 2, 2022

Shares of UPS rose 15% on Tuesday after reporting better than expected earnings. In addition,…

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Debate At The Fed- QT Or Rate Hikes

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Feb 1, 2022

It appears there is a brewing debate at the Fed regarding how to normalize monetary…

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The Russell 2000 Enters a Bear Market

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 31, 2022

The Russell 2000 Index, a composite of small stocks, closed Thursday down more than 20%…

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Market Volatility Rules The Day

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 28, 2022

For those of you following the markets day and night, as we do, you likely…

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Powell “Sooner and Faster” Shakes Markets

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 27, 2022

The moment Jerome Powell said the Fed will remove assets from their balance sheet “sooner…

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Stocks Or Inflation? The Fed Has A Choice To Make

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 26, 2022

At 2 pm ET, the Fed will conclude its FOMC policy meeting and inform us…

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Extreme Volatility May Be Here For A While

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 25, 2022

The S&P exhibited extreme volatility throughout the day on Monday. The market opened weaker and…

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Stocks Bounce Around But End Down In Front Of The Fed

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 24, 2022

Stocks bounced around Friday as investors look ahead to Wednesday’s important FOMC meeting. Fueling some…

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Peleton – Another Lockdown Winner is Losing

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 21, 2022

Over the past year, many stocks that benefited from the Pandemic lockdowns have given up…

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Small-Cap Stocks Struggle Again

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 20, 2022

The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Stock index continues to struggle. On Wednesday, it fell 1.56% and…

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Goldman Sachs Shares Tumble as Wages Soar

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 19, 2022

Shares of Goldman Sachs tumbled Tuesday as earnings fell $1.30 short of expectations and were…

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No Vaccine Mandate Is Bad News For Vaccine Makers

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 18, 2022

Pfizer and Moderna shares struggled on Friday as the Supreme Court overturned a federal (OSHA)…

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Airline Stocks Soar Despite Market Turbulence

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 14, 2022

Airline stocks took off on Thursday on the back of better than expected earnings from…

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7-Percent Inflation, What Will The Fed Do?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 13, 2022

Inflation is now running at 7-percent, well above the Fed 2% objective. Following the CPI…

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The CPI Report Is Coming, Prepare For Volatility

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 12, 2022

At 8:30 am ET, the BLS will release the December CPI Report. Expectations are for…

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Small-Cap Stocks Are On Thin Ice

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 11, 2022

While the large-cap indexes trended higher throughout 2021, small-cap stocks (IWM) spent most of the…

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GameStop Dumps As Speculative Fever Fades

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 10, 2022

Investor exuberance for speculative investments is increasingly waning. For instance, GameStop (GME) surged 25% in…

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Is A Value Rotation Afoot?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 7, 2022

As we enter 2022, we wonder if this is the year we finally see a…

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The Hawkish Fed Scares Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 6, 2022

The Fed minutes from their December 14-15th meeting, released yesterday, show a heightened concern with…

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Ford Is Starting To Trade Like Tesla

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 5, 2022

Ford (F) is following Tesla’s path. Tesla shares surged on Monday after they released strong…

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Bonds Struggle On The First Day of 2022

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 4, 2022

Bonds struggled Monday following a couple of solid days to close out 2021. Ten-Year UST…

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Goodbye To 2021 & Hello 2022

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 31, 2021

As we say goodbye to 2021, we want to offer our sincere thank you for…

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ARKK & Early ’21 Winners Falling Out of Favor

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 30, 2021

The winning stocks of early 2021 are falling out of favor. Below we discuss how…

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Omicron Spreads as the Market Takes a Breather

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 29, 2021

The S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak Tuesday as technology and health care stocks…

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Santa delivered an all time high

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 28, 2021

Markets rallied on Monday following this weekend’s strong retail sales data from Mastercard. Despite canceled…

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Merry Christmas From Wall Street

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 24, 2021

Wall Street wished stock investors a merry Christmas on Christmas Eve. The S&P closed Thursday…

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Omicron Fears Ease Pushing Stocks Upward

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 23, 2021

Despite the surging number of Covid cases, investors’ Omicron fears appear to be easing. It…

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Negative Market Narratives Are Forgotten

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 22, 2021

Monday’s negative market narratives, Omicron, and the failure of Biden’s BBB spending package didn’t phase…

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Manchin and Omicron and Bears, Oh My!

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 21, 2021

Senator Manchin and Omicron and bears are weighing on investor sentiment heading into the holiday-shortened…

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GM And Ford Are Gunning For Tesla

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 20, 2021

GM is now shipping Hummer EV pickup trucks. Ford is halting reservations on its electric…

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Hawkish Fed Policy, On Second Thought, Is That Bullish?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 17, 2021

It seems the market may have second thoughts about the acceleration of the hawkish Fed…

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The Fed Doubled Taper Plans and Introduces Rate Hikes

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 16, 2021

In a decidedly hawkish statement, the Fed doubled taper plans. Additionally, they plan to hike…

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Will Chairman Jerome Powell Play the Grinch Today?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 15, 2021

At 2 pm ET, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will alter monetary policy….

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High Dividend Stocks Take The Day

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 14, 2021

High dividend stocks rose yesterday despite weakness in the major indexes. The weakness in the…

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Inflation is Running Hot and Investors Don’t Care

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 13, 2021

The BLS gave us our monthly reminder that inflation is running hot. CPI is now…

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Bitcoin and Stocks Take A Breather

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 10, 2021

Bitcoin and stocks fell in light trading yesterday. As we show below from SimpleVisor, Bitcoin…

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Apple Stock Hits A Record High On “Nightmare” News

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 9, 2021

Apple stock rose 2.25% yesterday to close over $175, a new all-time high. Shares in…

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Technology Stocks Lead the Way Higher

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 8, 2021

Technology stocks led the markets higher on Tuesday. With little news on the tape, it…

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The Fed Pivots and Stocks Surge

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 7, 2021

Yesterday morning an ominous Wall Street Journal article warned investors that the Fed will speed…

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Are Value Stocks In Vogue?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Dec 6, 2021

Are value stocks in vogue? The price action of the last few days screams yes….

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Oil Prices Plummet Then Rally In A Bullish Sign

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Dec 3, 2021

Oil prices plummeted 5% yesterday morning as OPEC went ahead with a planned output hike…

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Cyber Monday Stock Sales Entice Investors

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 30, 2021

Cyber Monday stock gains erased a good chunk of Black Friday’s losses. Fear of another…

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Black Friday Sales Hit The Markets As Omicron Emerges

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 29, 2021

The typical uneventful post-Thanksgiving Friday trading session was anything but that. Black Friday market discounts…

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Jobless Claims Plunge To 52 Year Lows

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 26, 2021

As we show below, Initial Jobless Claims plunged to a level last seen in 1969….

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The NASDAQ Is On A Losing Streak

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 24, 2021

The NASDAQ was lower by over one percent at lunchtime but cut its losses in…

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Did Jerome Powell Just Mark The Market Top?

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 23, 2021

President Biden renominated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for another four years as the head of…

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The Euro Tumbles as Covid Cases Surge

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Nov 22, 2021

The Euro continues to tumble versus the dollar as Covid cases in Europe are spiking….

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FAANG Stocks Keep The S&P 500 Afloat

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Nov 19, 2021

Thanks to the FAANG stocks, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were higher on the day….

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The Next Big Shock

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 18, 2021

Fed’s Williams says “we must think about how to shore up the Treasury Market so…

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Crypto’s Crash and Stocks Head Higher

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Nov 17, 2021

“Crypto’s Crash,” says some financial news headlines. The reality is Bitcoin, Ethereum and others are…

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