Empire State Survey Warns of Economic Contraction
Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | May 17, 2022The May New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell sharply into economic contraction levels…
> Read MoreThe May New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell sharply into economic contraction levels…
> Read MoreThe S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a rally to…
> Read MoreProducer prices (PPI) for April met expectations rising .5%. While .5% is a big monthly…
> Read MoreEx-New York Fed President Bill Dudley seems to have it out for the Fed. Despite…
> Read MoreOften markets bottom when investor sentiment is poor and peak when it’s high. As they…
> Read MoreFear, not inflation, is driving bond yields higher despite popular beliefs. The graph below shows…
> Read MoreThe S&P 500 was down seven points this past week. Last week’s extreme volatility made…
> Read MoreShares of ETSY plunged yesterday on a poor quarterly earnings report. We are not very…
> Read MoreMeeting market expectations, the Fed raised rates by 50bps and will start Quantitative Tightening (QT)…
> Read MoreThe consensus is that Jerome Powell and the Fed will raise interest rates by 50bps…
> Read MoreThe national ISM Manufacturing Survey was unexpectedly weaker than expected, as shown below. This should…
> Read MoreShares of Amazon, the third-largest contributor to the S&P 500, fell over 10% on Friday….
> Read MoreFirst-quarter GDP fell by 1.4% versus expectations for a 1.1% increase. As we discussed in…
> Read MoreApple Inc. will release its earnings after the close today. Apple Inc. is the largest…
> Read MoreThe robust 6.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely hit a…
> Read MoreMany companies, including the largest in the United States, will release Q1 earnings this week….
> Read MoreGap stock (GPS) fell 20%, proving another victim of poor earnings. Executives blame supply line…
> Read MoreThe Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.11% this week. The last time…
> Read MoreShares of Netflix (NFLX) lost over a third of their value on Wednesday after announcing…
> Read MoreDespite mortgage rates nearing 5.50%, new homebuilders continue to file for building permits, and they…
> Read MoreMany economists have warned that an inverted yield curve will lead to a recession. The…
> Read MoreAfter announcing he took a 9.2% stake in Twitter a few weeks ago, Elon Musk…
> Read MoreMichael, I, and the entire staff at RIA Advisors wanted to take this special day…
> Read MoreThe latest round of CPI inflation data confirms a troubling situation for many workers. Salaries,…
> Read MoreYesterday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned off $34 billion of ten-year notes. Despite yields rising sharply…
> Read MoreWithin today’s Commentary, we point out a few concerning market divergences. We lead with the…
> Read MoreIf you think the Fed is hawkish, you ain’t seen nothing yet. In a Bloomberg…
> Read MoreWith first-quarter earnings announcements starting soon, investors are trying to figure out how inflation will…
> Read MoreThe Dow Jones Transportation Index is down about 12% in just the last seven days,…
> Read MoreIn Monday’s Commentary, we wrote: “Keep an eye on Fed speeches for any guidance on…
> Read MoreTesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, announced he has accumulated a 9% stake in Twitter (TWTR). Shares…
> Read MoreThe most followed U.S. Treasury yield curve, 2yr vs. the 10yr, is now solidly inverted….
> Read MoreCrude oil prices tumbled Thursday as President Biden announced the DOE would release 1 million…
> Read MoreRestoration Hardware (RH) stock is trading over 10% lower as it missed earnings expectations despite…
> Read MoreThe Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly rose to 107.2, from 105.7. Despite the increase…
> Read MoreThe U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to flatten and, in some cases, invert and therefore…
> Read MoreThe VIX index gauging expected equity volatility is normalizing despite a sharp pick-up in yields,…
> Read MoreOn Thursday, Nvidia (NVDA) led the market and other chip stocks higher. It appears chip…
> Read MoreSo far, it has been predominately the defense, materials, agricultural, and energy companies most affected…
> Read MoreOver the last few months, bond yields have surged higher. Higher yields are a tax…
> Read MoreOn Monday, Powell reiterated the need to normalize monetary policy. Per his speech: “There is…
> Read MoreThe S&P 500 capped off last week on a positive note with a strong rally…
> Read MoreAs we anticipated, stocks are rallying out of the FOMC meeting after fears of a…
> Read MoreOn March 3, 2020, the Federal Reserve reduced its Fed Funds rate and bought Treasury…
> Read MoreThe recent surge in gold and oil prices has been erased. While the Russian invasion…
> Read MoreThe S&P 500 just flashed a death cross. A death cross is a bearish technical…
> Read MoreNot surprisingly, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey fell again. The index hit 59.7…
> Read MoreThe CPI year-over-year inflation rate, propelled by rising gas and used car prices, rose to…
> Read MoreStocks rallied on Wednesday as the Financial Times reported that the UAE will call upon…
> Read MoreGold was up $80 an ounce at its peak yesterday, and nickel prices catapulted higher,…
> Read MoreThe Fed will officially end the latest round of QE on Wednesday. The schedule below…
> Read MoreWhile the media and public heavily focus on surging oil prices, wheat and other grain…
> Read MoreThe BLS will release February’s employment report at 8:30 ET this morning. Current expectations, as…
> Read MoreStocks rebounded despite a somewhat hawkish Congressional testimony by Powell and soaring crude oil prices….
> Read MoreChairman Powell will testify to Congress today and tomorrow and is likely to face many…
> Read MoreThe wild volatility in many asset classes continues as the Russian invasion trudges on. Peace…
> Read MoreStocks are being whipped around as volatility wreaks havoc on bulls and bears alike. The…
> Read MoreIf you think U.S. stocks are trading poorly, you may feel better looking at the…
> Read More“Russia Invades Ukraine” is the media headline this morning as the thing concerning investors finally…
> Read MoreDue to technical difficulties last night, there will be no daily commentary today. The daily…
> Read MoreAs we noted on Friday, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey reflects a decrease in bullish…
> Read MoreThe on and off again Russian invasion of Ukraine is heating back up, and with…
> Read MoreViacom (VIAC) joins Meta, Netflix, and a host of other companies that saw double-digit declines…
> Read MoreStock prices have been on a roller coaster, tracking the ebbs and flows of a…
> Read MoreEnergy stocks have finally taken a break from their upwards progress as they led the…
> Read MoreRumors were flying on Friday that a likely invasion of Kyiv by the Russians is…
> Read MoreBond investors panicked yesterday on higher than expected inflation. The most noticeable yield changes occurred…
> Read MoreAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, one of the more dovish members of the FOMC, anticipates…
> Read MoreThus far in February, the volatility in markets is calm compared to the violent sessions…
> Read MoreThe yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is approaching 2%. The last time 10-year Treasury…
> Read MoreIndividual stocks continue to show extreme volatility around their respective earnings announcements. The latest round…
> Read MoreStocks traded lower Thursday in large part due to Meta (Facebook) and the Bank of…
> Read MoreThis earnings season seems to be generating more volatility than is typical. Yesterday’s earnings releases…
> Read MoreShares of UPS rose 15% on Tuesday after reporting better than expected earnings. In addition,…
> Read MoreIt appears there is a brewing debate at the Fed regarding how to normalize monetary…
> Read MoreThe Russell 2000 Index, a composite of small stocks, closed Thursday down more than 20%…
> Read MoreFor those of you following the markets day and night, as we do, you likely…
> Read MoreThe moment Jerome Powell said the Fed will remove assets from their balance sheet “sooner…
> Read MoreAt 2 pm ET, the Fed will conclude its FOMC policy meeting and inform us…
> Read MoreThe S&P exhibited extreme volatility throughout the day on Monday. The market opened weaker and…
> Read MoreStocks bounced around Friday as investors look ahead to Wednesday’s important FOMC meeting. Fueling some…
> Read MoreOver the past year, many stocks that benefited from the Pandemic lockdowns have given up…
> Read MoreThe Russell 2000 Small-Cap Stock index continues to struggle. On Wednesday, it fell 1.56% and…
> Read MoreShares of Goldman Sachs tumbled Tuesday as earnings fell $1.30 short of expectations and were…
> Read MorePfizer and Moderna shares struggled on Friday as the Supreme Court overturned a federal (OSHA)…
> Read MoreAirline stocks took off on Thursday on the back of better than expected earnings from…
> Read MoreInflation is now running at 7-percent, well above the Fed 2% objective. Following the CPI…
> Read MoreAt 8:30 am ET, the BLS will release the December CPI Report. Expectations are for…
> Read MoreWhile the large-cap indexes trended higher throughout 2021, small-cap stocks (IWM) spent most of the…
> Read MoreInvestor exuberance for speculative investments is increasingly waning. For instance, GameStop (GME) surged 25% in…
> Read MoreAs we enter 2022, we wonder if this is the year we finally see a…
> Read MoreThe Fed minutes from their December 14-15th meeting, released yesterday, show a heightened concern with…
> Read MoreFord (F) is following Tesla’s path. Tesla shares surged on Monday after they released strong…
> Read MoreBonds struggled Monday following a couple of solid days to close out 2021. Ten-Year UST…
> Read MoreAs many investors look ahead to what 2022 may bring, they tend to rely on…
> Read MoreAs we say goodbye to 2021, we want to offer our sincere thank you for…
> Read MoreThe winning stocks of early 2021 are falling out of favor. Below we discuss how…
> Read MoreThe S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak Tuesday as technology and health care stocks…
> Read MoreMarkets rallied on Monday following this weekend’s strong retail sales data from Mastercard. Despite canceled…
> Read MoreWall Street wished stock investors a merry Christmas on Christmas Eve. The S&P closed Thursday…
> Read MoreDespite the surging number of Covid cases, investors’ Omicron fears appear to be easing. It…
> Read MoreMonday’s negative market narratives, Omicron, and the failure of Biden’s BBB spending package didn’t phase…
> Read MoreSenator Manchin and Omicron and bears are weighing on investor sentiment heading into the holiday-shortened…
> Read MoreGM is now shipping Hummer EV pickup trucks. Ford is halting reservations on its electric…
> Read MoreIt seems the market may have second thoughts about the acceleration of the hawkish Fed…
> Read MoreIn a decidedly hawkish statement, the Fed doubled taper plans. Additionally, they plan to hike…
> Read MoreAt 2 pm ET, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will alter monetary policy….
> Read MoreHigh dividend stocks rose yesterday despite weakness in the major indexes. The weakness in the…
> Read MoreThe BLS gave us our monthly reminder that inflation is running hot. CPI is now…
> Read MoreBitcoin and stocks fell in light trading yesterday. As we show below from SimpleVisor, Bitcoin…
> Read MoreApple stock rose 2.25% yesterday to close over $175, a new all-time high. Shares in…
> Read MoreTechnology stocks led the markets higher on Tuesday. With little news on the tape, it…
> Read MoreYesterday morning an ominous Wall Street Journal article warned investors that the Fed will speed…
> Read MoreAre value stocks in vogue? The price action of the last few days screams yes….
> Read MoreOil prices plummeted 5% yesterday morning as OPEC went ahead with a planned output hike…
> Read MoreNews of the Omicron Variant showing up in California shook investors and pushed stocks from…
> Read MoreJerome Powell has been using the words “transitory inflation” to characterize the recent bout of…
> Read MoreCyber Monday stock gains erased a good chunk of Black Friday’s losses. Fear of another…
> Read MoreThe typical uneventful post-Thanksgiving Friday trading session was anything but that. Black Friday market discounts…
> Read MoreAs we show below, Initial Jobless Claims plunged to a level last seen in 1969….
> Read MoreThe NASDAQ was lower by over one percent at lunchtime but cut its losses in…
> Read MorePresident Biden renominated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for another four years as the head of…
> Read MoreThe Euro continues to tumble versus the dollar as Covid cases in Europe are spiking….
> Read MoreThanks to the FAANG stocks, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were higher on the day….
> Read MoreFed’s Williams says “we must think about how to shore up the Treasury Market so…
> Read More“Crypto’s Crash,” says some financial news headlines. The reality is Bitcoin, Ethereum and others are…
> Read More