Tag Archives: dollar

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-27-20

We know you get busy and don’t check our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything you might have missed.

The Week In Blogs

“No One Saw It Coming” – Should You Worry About The 10-Best Days

Technically Speaking: The One Thing – Playing The “Bear Market” Rally.

Why QE Is Not Working

Michael Markowski: Why You Should Sell The “Bear Market Rally.”

Fed Trying To Inflate A 4th Bubble To Fix The Third

#MacroView: Mnuchin & Kudlow Say No Recession?

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Our Latest Newsletter

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

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TPA Analytics: Not All Pieces In Place For A Sustained Rally

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

This is not a 9/11 type event to the #economy that will disappear as soon as everyone goes back to work. This is a #credit #event we warned about as downgrades are going to lead to more bankruptcies. https://t.co/MYBHcBfZt7 pic.twitter.com/cdiKfwiCKz
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 26, 2020

Why we prefer CAPE:

CAPE can look beyond transitory events much better than traditional valuation techniques.

If corporate earnings are zero for the next quarter CAPE10 only changes by 2.5%.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) March 21, 2020

You are not at the bottom of a #bearmarket when this is going on in #credit. pic.twitter.com/LQS2oerd50
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 25, 2020

Wake me up when one of the companies begging for a bailout tries to issue stock and save themselves.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) March 23, 2020

"After a 35% decline in the markets from the previous highs, a rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would encompass a 20% advance. Such an advance will “lure” investors back into the market, thinking the “bear market” is over."https://t.co/9rTSh0HcVG pic.twitter.com/UbFqF3QnPz
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 24, 2020

Good synopsis of the Fed's "Kitchen Sink" yesterday. If you don't really don't think we're in a #financialcrisis of rather mass proportions…then I really don't know what to tell you. This is more than just virus/economic issues. @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/Q27n1VIeqm
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 24, 2020

See you next week!

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-20-20

The Week In Blogs

Margin Call: You Were Warned Of The Risk

The Problem With Pragmatism… and Inflation

Technically Speaking: Risk Limits Hit, When Too Little Is Too Much

Fox26 Interview: The Economic Impact Of COVID-19

Profits & Earnings Suggest The Bear Market Isn’t Over.

#MacroView: Fed Launches A Bazooka To Kill A Virus

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Our Latest Newsletter

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

Quick Take: The Dollar Problem

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Video Of The Week A

Michael Lebowitz, CFA and I dig into the financial markets, the Fed’s bailouts, and what potentially happens next and what we are looking for. (Also, our take on corporate bailouts, and why, I can’t believe I am saying this, we mostly agree with Elizabeth Warren.)

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

Here is my only concern – this chart is everywhere over the last couple of days. Everyone seems to be convinced the #bearmarket is over already and can't wait to jump back in. Not typically how bear markets end. pic.twitter.com/4Y8lLXGft5
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 20, 2020

Here is the crazy part of this sell-off, stocks still aren't cheap to historical valuations. 1823 is fair value pic.twitter.com/CDNJtnXQ46
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) March 18, 2020

"I bought it for the dividend."
"Muni's are super safe."
"The packaging said high yield, nobody said it was all Califonia and Illinois bonds?"
When things go wrong, they go wrong fast. pic.twitter.com/sBh86WcStq
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 19, 2020

Hey .@Delta you bought back almost $12 billion in stock over the last decade. How about selling that stock before asking tax payers for a handout. h/t @JackPScott
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) March 17, 2020

One day, we will find out exactly who "blew up," who got "bailed out," and which "Master of the Universe" was responsible. pic.twitter.com/kavDphjgBi
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 17, 2020

Buybacks in select financials since 2010
Over $514 billion

If they need capital… sorry, WHEN they need capital, let them sell at a low price that which they just bought dear… pic.twitter.com/3W9fTkYIQD
— Jack Scott (@JackPScott) March 17, 2020

Let's be clear. There is a massive margin call/credit event the Fed is trying to get in front of. https://t.co/Av3Fc5J9j0
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 15, 2020

See you next week!

Quick Take: The Dollar Problem

Over the last two weeks, the U.S. dollar index has risen by 6%. That may not seem like much to investors who are watching stocks rise and fall by that amount, and even more daily or bond yields falling in half and then doubling, but trust us; it is.

The dollar is unlike any other asset because it is the world’s reserve currency. When a Canadian tire company buys rubber from a Philippine rubber company, the payment occurs in U.S. dollars. Both countries have their own currencies, but neither currency has the liquidity, deep credit markets, and quite frankly, the world’s largest economy and military power backing it.

Because so many foreign countries and companies transact with dollars, they need to borrow in dollars, despite the fact their revenue is often not in dollars. This creates a mismatch between revenues and expenses as currency values fluctuate. If the mismatch is not hedged, as is frequently the case, foreign borrowers of U.S. dollars are subject to higher borrowing costs if the dollar rises versus their local currency. Simply the local currency depreciates versus the dollar; therefore, they need more of the local currency to make good on their debt. Because of this construct, a stronger dollar is effectively a tightening of financial conditions on the rest of the world.

This is what is occurring today as the virus is severely impacting the global economy. Revenues are deteriorating and the cost of dollar-denominated foreign debt is rising rapidly. As borrowers scramble to raise more dollars to meet their obligations, the situation worsens as the demand for dollars forces the dollar higher. In layman’s terms, there is a global run on the dollar and, in circular fashion, the run is pushing the dollar higher. Either the global economy will break or the dollar. Right now it seems that despite massive liquidity from the Fed the dollar does not want to back down.

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-13-20

The Week In Blogs

#MacroView: Fed’s “Emergency Rate Cut” Reveals Recession Risks

Market Crash Reveals The “Liquidity Problem” Of Passive Investing

Technically Speaking: On The Cusp Of A Bear Market

March Madness: Having A Process For A Winning Outcome

Special Report: Panic Sets In As “Everything Must Go”

#MacroView: Fed Launches A Bazooka To Kill A Virus

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Our Latest Newsletter

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

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Special Report: Fed Launches A Bazooka As Markets Hit Our Line In The Sand

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Video Of The Week A

Danny Ratliff, CFP and Lance Roberts, CIO discuss the importance of having a process during a market decline, and the importance of financial advisor to ensure you don’t make emotionally driven mistakes.

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

Headline from the future:
March 18th:
"Fed cuts rates to 0% and launches a $2 Trillion Quantitative Easing program." pic.twitter.com/IAPSt79toF
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 12, 2020

Buy and Hold ain't a process, despite what some cool cats on Twitter may tell you.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) March 10, 2020

This is the flaw in the "I bought it for the dividends and dont care about the price" strategy. On Monday you lost 44% of the value and now you lost most of the dividend. This is not an investment strategy. https://t.co/iKhwpkHZii
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 11, 2020

When do buybacks become sellbacks?
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) March 11, 2020

After yesterday's "Black Swan Monday," it is not surprising we are getting a strong "reflexive rally" today. Just don't mistake it for a resumption of the #bullmarket. It could last for a few days, but lows will be retested, or new lows set, before the #bull returns. pic.twitter.com/6expqOZOKM
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 10, 2020

Panic at the Fed. To put the panic into context $1.5 trln in repo operations is larger than QE1 and 2 and just a hair less than QE3…
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) March 12, 2020

There is a FIRST TIME for everything.
The 30-Year Yield Is Below The Inflation Rate.
Amazing. pic.twitter.com/1dd8lsvMq7
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 10, 2020

Don't be fooled by this nonsense. Stocks are NOT CHEAP on a FORWARD operating basis because #earnings have not be revised lower nearly enough yet to compensate for the supply chain impact. pic.twitter.com/F0exudWZJY
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 10, 2020

See you next week!

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-06-20

The Week In Blogs

MacroView: The Ghosts Of 2018?

Buffett Lost $90 Billion By Not Following His Own Advice

Technically Speaking: Sellable Rally, Or The Return Of The Bull?

A Black Swan In The Ointment

Three Ways to Avoid the ‘Lost Highway’ of Financial ‘Advice.’

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

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Cartography Corner – March 2020

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Video Of The Week

Mike Lebowitz and I dig into the wild market swings, COVID-19, and what, if anything, the Fed can do about it.

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

The plunge in #10Year #Yields suggests #economic data is about to weaken markedly. Such will coincide with a sharp #reversion in the #Citi #Surprise index. pic.twitter.com/jk4jdQlyE9
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 4, 2020

Buy and hold is not a process… Buy and hold is a recipe to give back half or more of what you have earned over the last 5-10 years. Have a process and understand risk. You can make back money but not time.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) March 5, 2020

Worst advice ever via @CNBC
"Unless you’re selling investments, you’re not actually incurring a loss."
NO – you just lost money and by the time you get back to even you lost something even more important – TIME!
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 1, 2020

The Fed cut 75bps for no reason at all in 2019. Think about that as you consider what they may do in the coming days.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) March 2, 2020

From worst to best in one day. This is the "sellable rally" we discussed last week, be sure an use it as such. Rental trades will be sold and portfolios rebalanced to reduce "virus" exposures. pic.twitter.com/cMYP0oc8Ed
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 3, 2020

See you next week!

#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 02-24-20

The Week In Blogs

#MacroView: Japan, The Fed, & The Limits Of QE

Earnings Lies & Why Munger Says “EBITDA is Bull S***”

Technically Speaking: Markets Start To Price In “Viral Impacts”

Our Triple-C Rated Economy: Complacency, Contradictions, and Corona

Quick Take: Recession Risks Tick Up

#FPC: Dave Ramsey Is Right & Very Wrong About Permanent Life Insurance (Pt. 2)

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

Special Report: S&P 500 Plunges On Coronavirus Impact

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Video Of The Week

Mike Lebowitz and I dig into the market, COVID-19, and what, if anything, the Fed can do about it.

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

This is where "weak hands" sell to "strong hands" pic.twitter.com/rqJkYUKBIY
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 28, 2020

Serious Question- can someone explain to me how QE will help the economy counteract the effects of the virus?
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) February 27, 2020

What do they know that you don't?

(Getting out while the getting is good?) pic.twitter.com/Q8f5QHUBr5
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 27, 2020

2yr GM paper (Baa3 – one step from junk) offered at 2%… No thanks I will just take Uncle Sam's 2's at 1.25%
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) February 25, 2020

Witness the #death of #fiscal #responsibility in #Government and the rise of #MMT.

“When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic.”

― Benjamin Franklin pic.twitter.com/JFxqQ0z0Cq
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 27, 2020

I call B.S.
This is equivalent to dating your sister and trying to convince people it's completely okay. (Unless you live in Kentucky)https://t.co/peyp3cSu1K
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 25, 2020

See you next week!

#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 02-17-20

The Week In Blogs

#MacroView: Debt, Deficits & The Path To MMT.

After A Decade, Investors Are Finally Back to Even

Technically Speaking: Chasing The Market? Warnings Are Everywhere

6 Considerations for Long-Term Care Coverage.

Digging For Value in a Pile of Manure

Decoding Media Speak & What You Can Do About It

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Our Latest Newsletter

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

McDonald’s, Not A Shelter In The Coming Storm

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Video Of The Week

Quick 4-minute review of the markets back to extreme deviations from long-term averages which suggested the correction we saw on Thursday and Friday were likely.

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

Economy is rocking…so let's flood the system with a higher level of "emergency actions" than during the #financial #crisis. #TotallyLegit https://t.co/LP4Ebf8JIb
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 20, 2020

#fedgibberish Defined:

KASHKARI: LOW TREASURY YIELDS 'AN EXPRESSION OF CONFIDENCE' BY INVESTORS

Yellen: "I worry about low-interest rates because they are a symptom of a deeper problem in the global economy"

h/t @BrentCarlileFX
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) February 20, 2020

Why would I spend capital on an investment that will take years to recoup when buying back shares is a better way to boost my stock price NOW so I can sell my shares as an insider? pic.twitter.com/eXslRTBEzv
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 18, 2020

Great quote. https://t.co/2zm0Dz0Akd
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) February 21, 2020

"The Fed has eliminated the risk of recession in the U.S. because of their interventions."
Hmmm…..#Japan owns 80% of the ETF markets, runs QE roughly 3x the size of the U.S., and runs a massive #deficit and just reported a massive #GDP drop. pic.twitter.com/v2ywGJ2umS
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 17, 2020

"Valuations in the U.S. are fairly valued." – every fund manager on #CNBC trying to sell you their shares. pic.twitter.com/FkGPfZFCde
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 17, 2020

Why would I pay off my loan when every Presidential candidate is promising to pay it of for me? Only stupid people responsibly pay their #debts, which would include me. ? https://t.co/xODWifWCZQ
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 17, 2020

See you next week!

#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 02-10-20

The Week In Blogs

MacroView: The Next “Minsky Moment” Is Inevitable

Market Downturn? Putting Corrections Into Perspective

Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Risk Of Correction Still High (Q1-2020)

Why “Not-QE” is QE: Deciphering Gibberish

Falling Oil Prices An Economic Warning Sign

#FPC: 5-Things You Aren’t Being Told About HSA’s.

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Our Latest Newsletter

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

S&P 500 Technical Analysis Review 02-13-20

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Video Of The Week

Conversation with Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts on whether, or not, the markets have built up an immunity to QE.

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

This is another one of those "Well…Nobody could have seen that coming" issues with the market.
$450 billion (subprime in 2008 was $600 billion) of loans to companies that aren't profitable, don't have scale, and are basically #fad investments. pic.twitter.com/6WT69bZ2bu
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 13, 2020

Tesla rose today despite issuing new stock. Like the company or not, it was smart to raise capital at such elevated levels.

Contrary, why do so many investors celebrate buybacks from other companies that occur at ridiculous valuations?
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) February 13, 2020

Great chart from @TaviCosta on a correlation I had not thought of before.
"Damn you Tavi, Damn you."
?? pic.twitter.com/VGBptxfv8D
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 12, 2020

The prices of the goods and services we consume, per the BLS, is up 2.5% yoy.

The Fed still laments the fact that inflation is running below 2%.

I am positive that if PCE were 2.5% and CPI 1.5%, CPI would be their index of choice.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) February 13, 2020

This morning I tweeted the chart of $AAPL and $MSFT making up 10% of the market. Great article from Nick Colas at Datatrek Research (via #Zerohedge) on just 4 stocks making up 67% of YTD returns.
(Markets are strong when broad, weak when narrow.)https://t.co/hB60iuBATR
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 11, 2020

Rallying on hopes the virus is cured only makes sense when the market has discounted the virus.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) February 12, 2020

Bob Farrell:
"Stock markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they are narrow."

Just sayin…. pic.twitter.com/w2brMEbmaT
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 11, 2020

See you next week!

#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 02-03-20

The Week In Blogs

SOTM 2020: State Of The Markets

Jerome Powell & The Fed’s Great Betrayal

Where’s the Adult Merit Badge for Super Savers?

Technically Speaking: Market Bounce, January, & The Super Bowl.

The Rotation To Value Is Inevitable

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Our Latest Newsletter

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

Quick Take: The Great “Tesla” Hysteria Of 2020

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Video Of The Week

Conversation with Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts on the “Fed’s Betrayal” and the impact to the average American who is suffering real inflation that is higher than reported.

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

The only other time in history where HIGH #PE stocks #outperformed LOW P/E #stocks by such a wide margin was in 10-years prior to the #Dotcom peak. Via @SoberLook
Let me restate – #fundamentally worst companies are outperforming as #economy slows down. What could go wrong? pic.twitter.com/LVLSkCMwjL
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 6, 2020

Liquidity is king and nothing else matters … until it does of course.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) February 4, 2020

But…But…Isn't everybody getting rich from the booming #stock #market. Oh yes…I forgot…it is just the top 10% who own 84% of the stock market.
For the rest of you….get back to work. pic.twitter.com/xiklYgn64k
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 3, 2020

Its much easier to buy low and sell high then it is to buy high and sell higher…
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) February 4, 2020

#NegativeYields are rising. #YieldCurves are inverting.
The #Fed only has 1.5% to offset the next #recession and they are already engaged in #NotQe. pic.twitter.com/FFEAtDGQOI
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 3, 2020

With a record 51% of investment-grade #Debt just one-notch above junk, an #economic slowdown or #recession would lead to downgrades.
The #risk, if that happens, is that #fund #managers who can't hold #junkbonds will be forced to sell into an illiquid market. #creditevent pic.twitter.com/jPoWyZSc9L
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 6, 2020

See you next week!

#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 01-27-20

The Week In Blogs

MacroView: Elites View The World Through “Market Colored” Glasses

Retired Or Retiring Soon? Yes, Worry About A Correction

Technically Speaking: “Coronavirus” Triggers Overdue Market Correction

Maybe This Time Is Different?

“SARS” Versus “Wuhan”: The Difference Between “Now & Then”

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

Looking Beyond Apple and Microsoft

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Video Of The Week

Seth Levine and I dig into the markets, the Fed, Repo in a wide ranging discussion on the current investment environment.

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

In 2003 #valuations were already suppressed following the #dotcom crash. Today, valuations are running in nearly the 90th percentile. This leaves the #markets more vulnerable to change in #profits from an #economic #impact. https://t.co/6Lc4rNGw2T pic.twitter.com/PRjlBS7KGq
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 30, 2020

TSLA now has a market cap equal to GM, Ford and Chrysler/Fiat combined. Good luck with that one.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) January 30, 2020

Speaking of valuations. Great chart from @TaviCosta @crescatkevin showing % of sectors at record valuations.#valuations don't matter…….until they do. pic.twitter.com/pRmkui5LGG
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 30, 2020

The power of buybacks… Apple net income year over year down by about $2 billion.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) January 28, 2020

Wait…what happened to that #surging #wage #growth. pic.twitter.com/pHxE8VRrwR
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 29, 2020

While you were sleeping…
40% of the 10-#yield #spreads we track have now inverted again.
Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/0BBIeEsVrr
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 28, 2020

See you next week!

#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 01-20-20

The Week In Blogs

Technically Speaking: Extreme Deviations & Eventual Outcomes

Gimme Shelter – Unlocked RIA Pro

Yes, Rates Are Still Going To Zero

Recession Arithmetic: What Would It Take?

The Fed Won’t Avert The Next “Crisis,” They Will Cause It.

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What You Missed At RIA Pro

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

Selected Portfolio Position Review: 01-23-2020

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The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

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Video Of The Week

Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss the markets, Fed, the outlook for 2020 and how we are positioning our portfolios.

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Our Best Tweets Of The Week

Hmmmm…I am working on my next article and this jumped out at me.
Plummeting wages and hours don't suggest there will be a recovery in either #economic growth or #employment to support current #valuations. pic.twitter.com/3i2DQg2vnw
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 23, 2020

Jamie Dimon JP Morgan CEO Jabs Socialism

Dimon is a fraud. He’s against socialism while making tens of millions due to Fed and government socialistic policies.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) January 24, 2020

Let's be clear.#ClimateChange took over #Davos because the majority of the elites there have products, services, or agenda they can sell YOU to make a #profit off of something they don't believe in to start with. https://t.co/8WUFE3DVsG
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 23, 2020

We are now in the top of the tenth inning https://t.co/LwMDu4mDif
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) January 17, 2020

JUST FYI – Our composite #technical #gauge went "bats***" this past week and sits at 98 out of a possible 100. This is WEEKLY data, so it moves slower than other indicators. pic.twitter.com/qaYUPlgLrd
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 18, 2020

See you next week!

#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 01-13-20

The Week In Blogs

MacroView: Has The Fed Trapped Itself?

Comparison & The Role Your Advisor Should Play

Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts – Part Deux

Yeah…But

Rosso’s 2020 Reading List – Part II

The Fed Won’t Avert The Next “Crisis,” They Will Cause It.

The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

Video Of The Week

Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss how the Federal Reserve has gotten itself trapped in its own liquidity program.

Our Best Tweets Of The Week

Yes. pic.twitter.com/kCeink3uIK
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 14, 2020

I keep hearing nonsense about how the Fed's actions are not responsible for the market going up. Instead they claim there is a shortage of assets. Why is there a shortage? Could it be the nearly $4 trillion in assets the Fed removed from the market?
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) January 16, 2020

Uhm…I have a question.
If #everyone is making money in the market AND we have the #greatesteconomyever then can anyone explain this.#ImBeingRhetorical pic.twitter.com/JlQ6eSun3J
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 13, 2020

How sad it is that financial/market writers spend so much ink on the Fed. Its like a sports reporter that writes about refs instead of the game. #pathetic
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) January 13, 2020

What could possibly go wrong? pic.twitter.com/75jcXayyUR
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 14, 2020

Market performance is defying fundamentals and, it would seem, gravity itself. Why we think that's just…nuts. The latest #ThreeMinutesOnMarketsAndMoney podcast is on our YouTube channel now:https://t.co/AjSDMegWOH #Markets #Money #Investing pic.twitter.com/EohFMWfyPu
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 14, 2020

"The market is currently fairly valued." – Jeremy Siegel
Long-term view of price versus 10x (cheap), 15x (fair) and 20x (expensive) valuations. Most important takeaway is that when price has pushed will above 20x, subsequent outcomes have been bad. $SPY $TLT pic.twitter.com/Zp79j4br4B
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 15, 2020

What You Missed At RIA Pro

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Gimme Shelter

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 01-06-20

This past week was our annual family ski trip, which is why our postings have been lighter than normal this week. We will return next week back with our full schedule.

In the meantime, we know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed.

The Week In Blogs

The Next Decade: Valuations & The Destiny Of Low Returns

Financial Planning Corner: A Change To RMD’s For Post-49’ers

Technically Speaking: Markets Dismiss Iran As The Fed “Put” Remains

Can Six Myths Keep The Market Going?

Investing Versus Speculating

Market Bubbles: It’s Not The Price, It’s The Mentality.

The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

Video Of The Week

Michael Lebowitz & I discussing the Fed Repo operations and the trap they have gotten themselves into.

Our Best Tweets Of The Week

"I think this market is fully valued and not undervalued, but I don’t think it’s overvalued,” – Jeremy Siegel

Really? pic.twitter.com/XzIEtqkPcT
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 9, 2020

Peakest complacency
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) January 9, 2020

Lots of commentary about how the $QQQ is outperforming the $SPY. Just one note, there are only a few times in the last 25-years where both markets were trading 3-standard deviations above their 200-WEEK MA.
This is one of them. pic.twitter.com/OEpJ1rpXV6
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 10, 2020

Jeremy Siegel is an Uber Bull, therefore fully valued for him is grossly overvalued using most popular metrics. pic.twitter.com/Xk0QcBr2jI
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) January 9, 2020

Agree. We have a couple of big themes for 2020 in portfolios.
1) Lower #dollar
2) Long #energy, #commodities, #gold
3) Long #international/#emerging
4) Long #bonds.
5) Long #hedges
6) Long #value vs #momentum pic.twitter.com/YhztuUHfjG
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 6, 2020

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Energy Sector Analysis: 1-09-2020

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 12-30-19

This past week was our annual family ski trip, which is why our postings have been lighter than normal this week. We will return next week back with our full schedule.

The Week In Blogs

2020: The Futility Of Predictions & Understanding The Risk

7-Difficult Trading Rules To Follow In Bull Markets

The Real Investment Guide For The Next Decade

Rosso’s 2020 Reading List

30% Up Years – Should You Sell It?

The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show

Video Of The Week

Thomas Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry on the outlook for the market as we head into 2020.

Our Best Tweets Of The Week

No thanks…I will wait a little bit. ???
I know…that must mean I am "bearish" because I am not jumping in with both feet. https://t.co/Jlg3CPmeA2
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 2, 2020

Many investors caught off sides. Not reading too much in this yet, but if Iran concerns escalate expect recent FOMO buyers to sell as rapidly as they bought.
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) January 3, 2020

Such a great comment. https://t.co/qmDjz4i611
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) December 31, 2019

“Trial and error” – more confirmation that the Fed does not have a firm understanding of the problem. https://t.co/FqHluEd4oL
— Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) December 28, 2019

One of the reasons we are looking to add a short-hedge to our portfolios. Rule #9: When everyone agrees, something else is bound to happen. pic.twitter.com/vwXjRvdCCP
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) December 31, 2019

Well…slight deviation in our ski plans. I am at the ER with my son to see if an #appendectomy is in his immediate future. pic.twitter.com/xC5eend8Wa
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) December 28, 2019

Our Latest Newsletter

What You Missed At RIA Pro

RIA Pro is our premium investment analysis, research, and data service. (Click here to try it now and get 30-days free)

Intermarket Analysis & Review: 01-03-20

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