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The account connection process is simple, safe, and secure. Your 401(k) account stays in your name and remains with the financial custodian. RIA Advisors never has access to your personal log-in information. We cannot request any distributions from your account, nor can we change any of your personal account information.

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1. Understand your allocation options:

CORE STRATEGY

The core strategy consists of holdings that are based on market fundamentals, valuations, and long-term market trends. These are holding that should be considered “long-term” investments and should primarily track the benchmark index over time. The turnover of the portfolio should be extremely low with the exception of rebalancing periods due to market gyrations.

TACTICAL STRATEGY

The tactical strategy consists of holdings which based on the short- to intermediate-term trends of the market. As macro-economic, monetary and fiscal policy, and investor psychology impacts markets, the holdings in the tactical strategy will shift to take advantage of market rotations. Importantly, this portion of the portfolio can move to all cash if needed to reduce risk in the event of a market downturn.

FIXED INCOME

The fixed income strategy is designed to both take advantage of changes in interest rate and inflation expectations, but also deliver a lower degree of volatility to the overall portfolio. The primary focus of the fixed-income portfolio is to protect capital, generate income, and lower overall portfolio volatility.

2. Choose the financial strategy that best fits your retirement goals and let RIA do all the work for you:
Current Target
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Risky
Conservative
arrow
100%
Aggressive Growth
100% Stocks
0% Bonds
Aggressive Growth 100%
A portfolio that is 100% exposed to stocks for investors seeking to obtain "benformance". This portfolio is most suitable for younger investors with a long-term time horizon to retirement.
Growth
80% Stocks
20% Bonds
growth
For investors still wanting more growth from their portfolio, but with a slightly lower risk profile. The addition of fixed income lowers overall volatility. This portfolio is suitable for investors with a 10-20 year time horizon to retirement.
Balanced
60% Stocks
40% Bonds
Bonds
Investors seeking a more conservative approach that will track a balanced index may find the balanced. With lower volatility, but with a growth component, the portfolio is suitable for investors 10-15 years to retirement.
Conservative
40% Stocks
60% Bonds
conservative
For those approaching retirement and are more (<10 years) concerned about capital preservation over growth, the conservative model may be useful. With a lower exposure to stocks, volatility is reduced and should protect portfolios against potential market drawdowns.
Ultra Conservative
20% Stocks
80% Bonds
ultra-conservative
For investors rapidly approaching retirement, where funds will be rolled out of company retirement plans, an ultra-conservative model may be useful in ensuring capital protection. Useful for individuals within 24-months of retirement.
Fixed Income Only
0% Stocks
100% Bonds
Fixed Income
For individuals within 12-months of retirement, an all fixed income portfolio may be appropriate to protect capital before the roll-over process. If your window to retirement is longer than 12-months, the Ultra-Conservative model may be more appropriate.
Asset Class
CORE STRATEGY
Large Cap Blend (Ex. S&P 500 Index)
25
20
20
15
5
Large Cap Growth
10
5
Large Cap Value
5
Large Cap Dividend
5
10
10
Mid Cap Growth
10
5
Mid Cap Value
5
5
Small Cap Blend
15
15
5
TACTICAL STRATEGY
International Growth
5
5
5
International Value
5
5
International Blend
5
5
Emerging Markets
10
5
Real Estate
10
10
10
5
5
Commodities
10
10
FIXED INCOME
Short Term Core
5
10
20
35
Intermediate Core
10
15
30
30
30
Global Fixed
10
10
15
10
High Yield Bond
10
5
Inflation Protected
5
10
15
25
CASH
Retirement Reserves/Stable Value
 
5 Year Standard Deviation
15.8
13.1
9.8
6
4.4
3
5 Year Annual Return
16.7
13.8
10.7
7.9
5.8
3.4
5 Year Maximun Drawdown
-34.3
-30.2
-24.5
-16.7
-11.2
-8.2

Commentary (as of 03/15/24)

Last week, we discussed whether this is a short-term market top or a bubble. In that discussion, we noted that the ongoing bullish trend remains intact, with the market trading from the top of the trendline to the 20-DMA. After a rally to all-time highs, the market again traded lower on Thursday and Friday to finish at the 20-DMA.

However, some differences this week suggest we may see a further correction next week. The market was trading in a very defined bullish trend channel. Over the last two weeks, the advance has begun to taper off, and it looks like a more rounded top may be forming. While the 20-DMA continues to act as support, a violation of that level could well trigger additional selling. Momentum and relative strength have also shown continued weakness, and both registered “sell signals” on Friday.

As we stated last week:

“While we have become increasingly cautious over the last few weeks, as the market continues to rise, we have suggested taking profits and rebalancing portfolio risks. If you have not done so, such remains a recommended course of action. However, this does not mean to reduce equity allocations aggressively.”

That recommendation remains again this week. While we have done some “trimming” to portfolios over recent weeks, we have not aggressively reduced risk. However, if the market does show evidence of a corrective phase, we will become more attentive to risk management. While we are never sure about the timing of market corrections, that is a part of the normal market cycle. With bullish exuberance getting a bit extreme, something will likely catalyze a reversal of sentiment.

Continue to use the model allocations above to balance your holdings accordingly. As we recommended all of last year, continue to underweight small/mid-capitalization stocks, as well as with International and Emerging Markets. If we begin to see relative performance improving in those areas we will make a recommendation to increase those exposures. However, outside of brief spurts of performance, the longer-term holding returns for these markets remain dismal. 

For now, continue to remain predominately weighted in US Large Cap (S&P 500) markets. Money flows, due to passive investing, will continue to keep those stocks elevated. 

As we get further into the New Year, we will be able to better recognize where money and allocations are rotating to and make further recommendations for there.

If you are close to retirement or are concerned about a pickup in volatility, there is nothing wrong with being very underweight equities. It is better to be safe than to give up dreams of retirement to rebuild lost wealtOn “

Model Performance

Model performance is a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the weighting changes made each week in the newsletter. Such is strictly for informational and educational purposes only, and one should not rely on it for any reason. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Use at your own risk and peril.

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