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“What the K-shaped economy gets right, what it exaggerates, and what believing the worst version is costing a generation.” The bottom half of American households owns about 2.5% of the nation’s wealth. That number is real, and it ought to bother you. However, that number is also higher than it was in 2019 and 2015, […]
Real Investment Advice is the editorial home of RIA Advisors — a registered investment advisory firm managing client portfolios through every cycle since 1995. We publish what we actually do: the analysis driving real portfolio decisions for real money.
No consensus narratives. No paid placements. No catastrophist click bait. Just disciplined, evidence-driven commentary on markets, the economy, and the policy machinery that moves both — written by the portfolio managers who own the calls.
Daily Market Commentary
We hate to drone on about a Fed rate hike, but we want to stress the risks in the Fed’s 25bps hike, as it is unlike any other hike we have seen in over thirty years. Let’s contrast it with every Fed hiking cycle since 1994. Today’s starting point is unlike those instances; economic growth […]
Blog
“What the K-shaped economy gets right, what it exaggerates, and what believing the worst version is costing a generation.” The bottom half of American households owns about 2.5% of the nation’s wealth. That number is real, and it ought to bother you. However, that number is also higher than it was in 2019 and 2015, […]
Daily Market Commentary
The Fed hiked by 25 basis points and alluded to another hike, as the market expected and as we surmised in our prior Commentary. The more important takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC meeting is what comes next. In the prior Commentary, we pointed out three things to watch: the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the balance […]
Blog
We publish this article hours before the Fed updates monetary policy at its September 16, 2026, FOMC meeting. Prior to its decision, the Fed has kept the Fed Funds rate steady even as inflation runs stubbornly above target. At the same time, longer-term bond yields have risen appreciably and, in the process, are tightening financial […]
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Get answers drawn directly from the Bull Bear Report, Daily Commentary, blog archive, and Lance's long-form research. Cited. Linked. Sourced.
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Valuations across semiconductors and hyperscaler capex are pricing in 2028 revenue today. SOXX has reached parabolic levels last seen at prior cycle peaks — Nasdaq 2000, semis 2018, semis 2021. The question isn’t whether AI is real; it’s whether $60 billion-per-year promises to Oracle from companies that don’t yet earn that revenue can be sustained without a meaningful correction.
Our weekly Bull Bear Report tracks the semiconductor breadth, capex commitments, and the option-implied tail risk. We don’t predict tops — we measure when the trade gets crowded enough that the risk/reward turns.
The latest FOMC projections show three camps. Doves favor further cuts to insulate the labor market. Hawks see a re-acceleration of services inflation and want to hold. The middle warns that easing into elevated equity valuations would be a textbook policy error.
Bond market pricing currently reflects ~1.4 cuts over the next 12 months — below the SEP median. That gap is where opportunity lives. See our same-day FOMC reaction note for the full dot plot interpretation.
Asset allocation always depends on age, time horizon, and risk tolerance. But the current environment — equity valuations 18% above the 10-year forward P/E average, stable bond yields above 4%, and elevated geopolitical tail risk — argues for keeping bonds as the primary portfolio stabilizer rather than chasing alternatives.
Our free Retirement Income E-Guide walks through the framework. Richard Rosso, CFP, also publishes a recommended reading list each January for investors building literacy in this space.
The 200-day moving average is the rolling 200-trading-day mean closing price of an index. For the S&P 500, it currently sits at 6,612. The index is roughly 3.55% above this level.
Historically, sustained breaks below the 200-DMA have demarcated bullish from bearish market regimes. RIA’s internal research on the post-breakdown record — an 87% win rate at six months, average return +14%, average max drawdown −16.5% — informs how we size positions when the trend line is tested.
Gold at $3,142 reflects two things: real demand from central banks diversifying reserves, and a reflexivity loop where rising prices drive more buying. The 1970s analog — gold as a stagflation hedge — doesn’t transfer cleanly because the macro setup is fundamentally different. Today’s debt levels make any sustained Fed inflation tolerance much costlier.
Gold can be a tactical position. It is not, in our view, the structural portfolio stabilizer some commentary suggests. See our long-form piece on the commodity supercycle thesis for the full argument.
Private credit refers to direct lending from non-bank investors to mid-market companies, typically at floating rates and through funds managed by firms like Blackstone, Blue Owl, Apollo, and BlackRock. The asset class has grown from $500B to over $1.7T in a decade.
The stress isn’t yet visible in marks — private credit is held at cost, with quarterly fair-value adjustments rather than daily marks. But the public credit signal (BDC discounts, secondary market pricing) is widening. RIA’s private credit coverage tracks the indicators that matter.
Lance Roberts is the Chief Investment Strategist for RIA Advisors, a registered investment advisory firm based in Houston, Texas. He is the lead editor of the Real Investment Report, a weekly newsletter distributed to over 100,000 subscribers, and host of The Real Investment Show podcast. He has 35+ years of experience managing portfolios through the 1987, 1999, 2008, and 2020 cycles.
RIA Advisors manages approximately $1.5 billion in client assets, focused on high-net-worth individuals and institutions. Real Investment Advice is the firm’s editorial platform — the analysis driving the same portfolio decisions for client money.
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