223 results found
Economics
Let's start with a recent survey. Two out of three Americans now say it's a bad time to buy a house, the most negative reading Gallup has ever recorded.1 Another study showed that a record 25.2 million adults under 35 are living with their parents.
Daily Market Commentary
The graph below paints a very interesting picture of US energy efficiency and a key structural economic change in this country. For roughly 25 years after WWII, the US economy’s crude oil consumption nearly tripled. Feeding the growth were a booming post-war economy and strong population growth. To put consumption in a different context, the […]
Invest
Bond market pundits often warn that bear yield curve flatteners or inverted yield curves ultimately lead to recessions. Similarly, some equity experts caution that periods of violent back-and-forth rotations among stock sectors and/or style factors are precursors to a market top. Additionally, the combination of a bearish flattening trend and volatile equity rotations leads some […]
Invest
Margin debt just set another record. In May 2026, investors owed their brokers a combined $1.42 trillion, the highest in history and a 53.7% jump from the prior year.1 Every time this number prints a new high, the same charts circulate: margin debt against GDP, against M2, against the total value of the market. They look authoritative. […]
Daily Market Commentary
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first major public appearance, a panel at the ECB’s annual forum in Portugal, to formally bury one of the Fed’s most relied-upon tools of the last 25 years: forward guidance. Warsh could not be more direct about his opinion of forward guidance. To wit, when the moderator repeatedly pressed […]
Daily Market Commentary
A recent article by the Wall Street Journal entitled Turbocharged Earnings Are Pushing Stocks Higher. There’s a Catch raises an important issue for investors of the megacap AI-tech companies. Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to top 20% for a second consecutive quarter; however, the earnings growth is not widespread. The predominant bulk […]
Newsletter
What a week. A rocket company became the largest public offering in history. The May inflation print landed mid-week as the hottest reading in three years. And the whole tape spent five sessions hostage to a single question about the Persian Gulf. When the dust settled, the S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,431.46, up 0.65% on the week. That rally clawed back roughly a quarter of the prior Friday's brutal 2.64% plunge to 7,383.74. The Nasdaq added 0.70%, and the Dow gained 0.66%. Small caps kept doing their 2026 thing, with the Russell 2000 leading on the upside again.
Daily Market Commentary
The coming wave of equity supply we detailed in The IPO Boom is growing. Last week, Alphabet executed an $80 billion secondary equity offering to fund AI infrastructure, including a $10 billion private placement to Berkshire Hathaway. Now, the Financial Times claims that Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are planning similarly large equity raises to fund […]
Newsletter
The melt-up finally took a breather. After nine straight winning weeks, the S&P 500 closed lower, finishing Friday at 7,384, down about 2.6% on the week and roughly 3% below Tuesday's record high of 7,609.78. The headline number buries the real story, because underneath it the market staged the sharpest rotation we've seen all year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tearing to a fresh record near 51,562 on Thursday even as the Nasdaq logged its worst day in nearly eight months. So the tape didn't fall apart. It rotated.