Start Here.
Twelve ideas that anchor every piece of research published at Real Investment Advice.
If you read these, the rest of the site makes sense.
After more than 30 years of writing about markets, I’ve come to believe a small set of ideas matters more than the rest. Not predictions. Not stock picks. The analytical foundations that everything else at RIA Advisors rests on.
This page collects the articles that I would hand to anyone serious about understanding how we think. They’re grouped by topic. You don’t need to read them in order. But if you find yourself disagreeing with one of the macro pieces, the framing in the others will probably explain why.
The bottom line is this. Most financial-media narratives are built to sell fear and certainty. We’ve spent the last decade arguing, with data, that the more useful framework is humility about what markets reward and discipline about what they punish. These twelve pieces are the case for that view.
Lance Roberts
Chief Investment Strategist, RIA Advisors
Investing
Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)
“Think Like An Investor” is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management There is a chart that lands in your […]
Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)
“Investor Psychology” is chapter 2 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management In the first part of this series, I promised that […]
Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)
“Math of Loss” is chapter 3 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management The first two articles in this series were about […]
Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)
“Investing Myths Dismantled” is chapter 4 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management Chapter 3 of this series, linked above, ended with […]
Portfolio Risk Management: Winning The Long Game (Chapter 5)
“How To Win The Long Game” is the final chapter of our series and we dig into the rules and guidelines for better investing and portfolio risk management. Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management […]
15 Investing Rules To Win The Long-Game
The rather “Pavlovian” response to Central Bank interventions has led investors into a false sense of security with respect to the risk being undertaken. Here are the 15-investing rules to win the long-game.
Risk Management
Risk Management For Retirees: When To Reduce Exposure
Last week, a viewer of the Morning Show emailed me about risk management for retirees. He asked the single most important question retirees face, and rarely get a straight answer to. “From an already retired perspective, and as one whose stock allocation is typically held in various index funds, if you see a market correction […]
Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth
Alfonoso Peccatiello recently wrote an interesting piece on portfolio risk management, starting with a quote from Steve Cohen: ‘’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range. That means you’re going to be wrong a […]
The Rules Of Bob Farrell – An Updated Illustrated Guide
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”. I often forget how old I have become, and the investing legends of my youth are no longer there and are lost to the sands of time. […]
The Best Measure Of Future Stock Market Returns
Many measures of future stock market returns are derived from economic and financial variables. You are likely familiar with most of them, from Dr. Robert Shillers’ Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) to Warren Buffett’s Market Capitalization to GDP ratio. As we have discussed many times, the problem is that valuation measures are just that – a […]
Wealth Building
Money: The 10 Immutable Laws Of Building Wealth
Money – everybody wants it, but few actually have it. As shown in recent financial statistics, the “wealth gap” in America continues to grow between the “haves” and the “have-nots.” That gap has led to a bombardment of narratives explaining why younger generations are financially oppressed. As shown, the top 10% of income earners own […]
Why Retail Traders Consistently Underperform Over Time
Decades of data across global markets reach the same verdict: the more frequently retail traders trade, the worse they perform. The infrastructure has never been more inviting. The losses have never been more documented. Here are some key statistics we will dive into further. Retail traders have never had it so easy. Zero commission platforms, […]
Behavioral Traits That Are Killing Your Portfolio Returns
Investor psychology is one of the most significant reasons individuals consistently fall short of their investment goals. While one of the most common truisms is that “investors buy high and sell low,” the underlying reason is the behavioral traits that plague our investment decision-making. George Dvorsky once wrote that: “The human brain is capable of […]
The Best Measure Of Future Stock Market Returns
Many measures of future stock market returns are derived from economic and financial variables. You are likely familiar with most of them, from Dr. Robert Shillers’ Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) to Warren Buffett’s Market Capitalization to GDP ratio. As we have discussed many times, the problem is that valuation measures are just that – a […]
Economics
Rising Interest Rates: Why The Narrative Fails Against The Data
Last Friday closed with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.60%, a one-year high, and the doom commentary about rising interest rates was waiting before the bell even rang. Hyperinflation. Bond market breakdown.
The Dollar's Plumbing: Conspiracy Vs. Data
Every few months, a headline appears declaring that the U.S. dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency is over. China is dumping Treasuries. Central banks are hoarding gold.
Friedman Was Right, Just Mostly Misquoted.
Milton Friedman's famous one-liner that anchors half the inflation debates on financial television leaves out the part where the actual economics live. Once you put it back in, the doomist case gets a lot smaller.
Money Supply Growth: A Thesis With A Fatal Flaw
Recently, MarketWatch ran a provocative headline: “When the world’s largest asset manager and the Bond King both agree: Run to gold, silver, and bitcoin.” The article highlighted how Larry Fink’s BlackRock and Jeffrey Gundlach, often dubbed the “Bond King,”
Monetary Policy
Sound Money: Be Careful What You Wish For
A return to sound money has become the rallying cry for a growing crowd of investors, politicians, and commentators who are, understandably, fed up. Fed up with deficits that never shrink, with a national debt north of $39 trillion, with a dollar that buys a little less every year. The pitch is elegant. Back the […]
The Debt And Deficit Problem Isn't What You Think
In recent months, much debate has been about rising debt and increasing deficit levels in the U.S. For example, here is a recent headline from CNBC: The article’s author suggests that U.S. federal deficits are ballooning, with spending surging due to the combined impact of tax cuts, expansive stimulus, and entitlement expenditures. Of course, with […]
Government Debt: Not What The Doom Crowd Thinks It Is
Every few years, someone discovers that the United States government owes a very large amount of dollars and concludes that Rome is about to fall. A recent piece in RealClearMarkets by Nash, Thomas, Lang, and Rastin does exactly this.
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Read the research.
Then talk to us.
If anything in these twelve pieces raises a question about your own portfolio, that’s the point. We work with individuals, families, and business owners who want their investment strategy to look like the research we publish. The first conversation is free.