223 results found
Invest
“Think Like An Investor” is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management There is a chart that lands in your […]
Daily Market Commentary
Friday’s weak retail sales report did more damage to the hawkish case. Sales fell 0.6% in July against expectations for a 0.1% gain. The control group, the piece that feeds directly into GDP, dropped 0.4%. That was its first decline this year. The print landed a week after payrolls fell 23,000 and two days after […]
Economics
Japan didn’t just spark a currency crisis; it reminded everyone that the Fed has quietly backstopped the dollar for 60 years. The Yen intervention is not new, and while the “end of fiat, buy gold” crowd is right about the destination, they are wrong about the departure time. Every time somebody touches the plumbing of […]
Invest
Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business. Recently, he made a surprising U-turn on his bullish stance. The following paragraph opens his Second Quarter Review and Outlook. The structural backdrop for U.S. inflation increasingly suggests that the long-run equilibrium range is migrating from roughly1.5–3.5% […]
Newsletter
The week the labor market cracked was the week stocks had their best run since April. Friday’s close of 7,757.64 on the S&P 500 set a record, up 3.6% over five sessions. The Nasdaq Composite gained 5.2% to 26,690.62, and the Dow added roughly 3% to 54,036.93.
Daily Market Commentary
Moonshot AI, a Chinese company, just released AI model Kimi K3. Kimi K3 is a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-source AI model that the company claims is the largest ever built. With Kimi K3, Moonshot AI believes it can compete with Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 across several benchmarks, trailing the leading systems only marginally. The news […]
Daily Market Commentary
The national deficit debate usually focuses on entitlement and defense spending. While they have merit, they miss the single largest driver of America’s deteriorating fiscal picture. After the pandemic-related deficits, the cost of borrowing itself, not spending, has been the biggest deficit buster. As shown in the first graph, in 2021, the government paid $482 […]
Invest
Decades of data across global markets reach the same verdict: the more frequently retail traders trade, the worse they perform. The infrastructure has never been more inviting. The losses have never been more documented. Here are some key statistics we will dive into further. Retail traders have never had it so easy. Zero commission platforms, […]
Newsletter
The headline number this week was boring, but the action underneath was not, as the momentum meltdown was tearing through the market's most crowded trade. The S&P 500 slipped about 1.5% to close at 7,457.69, the Nasdaq 100 gave back roughly 4%, and the Dow held up with a fractional loss.