Yield Curve Tells Us More Than We Think
The BLS reported that payrolls jumped by 162,000, more than tripling estimates of a 50,000 gain. Unemployment held at 4.1%, and wages rose 0.3% for the month. Below, we share a bullish reaction and a more measured one from Wall […]
Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)
“Investing Myths Dismantled” is chapter 4 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 3 of […]
September Market Weakness: The Setup Has Teeth
This was a decently boring week that ended just about where it began. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,718.60, up a rounding-error 0.1% for the week; however, that flat headline hid a decently bumpy five sessions. Stocks dipped early as oil spiked on fresh Middle East hostilities, recovered midweek when Fed Governor Chris Waller struck a dovish note, and yields eased, then handed it all back Friday when the August jobs report landed hot.
Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste
Democratic Socialism promises affordability and fairness. The bill, from Caracas to Copenhagen, is something else entirely. On January 1st, a self-described democratic socialist was sworn in as mayor of the largest city in America. Weeks before that, socialist candidates swept […]
AI For The People Or Meta’s Bottom Line?
Last week, we wrote two short articles within our Commentary summarizing Mark Zuckerberg’s new stance on AI. We were skeptical of his “AI for the people” essay given his track record. Thus, when we saw a recent Bloomberg editorial, Don’t […]
Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)
“Think Like An Investor” is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” There is a chart that lands in your feed every few months. It plots a single dollar dropped into the […]
Weak Retail Sales Take Rate Hikes Off The Table
Friday’s weak retail sales report did more damage to the hawkish case. Sales fell 0.6% in July against expectations for a 0.1% gain. The control group, the piece that feeds directly into GDP, dropped 0.4%. That was its first decline […]
Yen Intervention Narrative: What’s True And Not
Japan didn’t just spark a currency crisis; it reminded everyone that the Fed has quietly backstopped the dollar for 60 years. The Yen intervention is not new, and while the “end of fiat, buy gold” crowd is right about the […]
Lacy Hunt Turns Bearish Bonds: Studying His Reversal
Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business. Recently, he made a surprising U-turn on his bullish stance. The following paragraph opens his Second Quarter Review and Outlook. The structural […]