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Will High Oil Prices Force The Fed’s Hand
The FOMC meeting concludes today with the rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Heading into today’s announcement, the market is placing 62% odds the Fed holds rates at the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. However, as we share below, market expectations for a September rate hike are […]
Jul 29, 2026
Chip Momentum Is Fading Despite Strong Earnings
Last week, chip maker Intel delivered its seventh consecutive quarterly earnings beat with revenue growing 25% year over year, its fastest growth since 2011. Its non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 doubled the $0.21 consensus. Data Center and AI revenue surged 59%, and 18A foundry output exceeded internal targets by roughly 25%. Intel shares initially jumped as […]
Jul 28, 2026
Small Caps Are Quietly Winning While Mega Caps Wobble
Thursday’s selloff, led by Alphabet down 7% and Tesla down nearly 15%, was a great example of a story that has been unfolding throughout most of the year. While the largest stocks led the market lower last Thursday, many other stocks, especially small caps, were flat to higher on the day. That divergence has been […]
Jul 27, 2026
Are Oil Prices Driving The Iran Conflict?
In physics, kinetic equilibrium describes a system in which forces are balanced, and motion continues at a steady, unchanging rate. Felix Vezina-Poirier of BCA Research argues that we can apply kinetic equilibrium to the Iran conflict. Unlike most analysts, he believes that oil prices are not the result of the ebbs and flows in the […]
Jul 24, 2026
Prediction Markets: A New Sentiment Gauge For Traders
Prediction markets leader Polymarket has a daily contract that bets on whether the S&P 500 opens higher the next trading day. Yesterday’s contract, as shown below, implied just a 30% probability of an up open, despite the index gaining nearly 1% the day before. The prediction market proved correct with the market opening lower. That […]
Jul 23, 2026
Alphabet And Intel: Q2 AI Earnings Kick Off
Alphabet reports earnings after today’s close, and Intel follows tomorrow. Together, they provide a first clue as to whether AI-related spending and investment continue at the brisk pace of the prior quarters. Alphabet represents the demand side for AI models. Google’s Cloud backlog nearly doubled sequentially last quarter to a record $462 billion, growing 63% […]
Jul 22, 2026
Moonshot AI Raises Red Flags In The AI Industry
Moonshot AI, a Chinese company, just released AI model Kimi K3. Kimi K3 is a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-source AI model that the company claims is the largest ever built. With Kimi K3, Moonshot AI believes it can compete with Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 across several benchmarks, trailing the leading systems only marginally. The news […]
Jul 21, 2026
The Deficit Spending Problem With A Non-Political Fix
The national deficit debate usually focuses on entitlement and defense spending. While they have merit, they miss the single largest driver of America’s deteriorating fiscal picture. After the pandemic-related deficits, the cost of borrowing itself, not spending, has been the biggest deficit buster. As shown in the first graph, in 2021, the government paid $482 […]
Jul 20, 2026
Inflation Will Be A Thing Of The Past- Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh delivered his first semiannual testimony to Congress earlier this week. In it, he used every opportunity to stress the urgency of returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. To wit, he stated, “Inflation will be a thing of the past.” He also said the Fed “has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” The […]
Jul 17, 2026
Why Are BDCs Ignoring Junk Bonds?
A reader recently asked us: “Why are BDCs diverging from corporate junk bonds?” To his point, the graph below shows the ICE BOA index of BB and B yield spreads to Treasuries are at or near 30-year lows. At the same time, BDCs, which hold lower-rated credit loans to small and mid-sized companies, are trading […]
Jul 16, 2026
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