The Kink In The Yield Curve
Economic and inflation forecasts have a highly significant impact on treasury bond yields. Therefore, one would suspect that their yields would follow a linear trend as the maturity lengthens on Treasury securities. For example, if current expectations were for high […]
Powells Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough
On Truth Social, President Trump stated, “Powell’s Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough!” His comment, posted early Thursday morning, followed a speech by Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon. Unlike the ECB and other central banks that are cutting rates, Powell and […]
Frontrunning Tariffs Boosts Economic Activity
Recent consumer sentiment readings have been horrendous. For instance, the University of Michigan’s latest consumer expectations and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index are at or near their lowest levels in ten years. However, despite poor sentiment and concerning outlooks, […]
Rare Earth Metals: Does China Have The Trump Card?
The chart below, courtesy of JP Morgan Asset Management, highlights how much the US relies on certain rare earth metal imports from China and other nations. It also lists some of the products the metals are needed for. As the […]
Volatility Boosts Bank Bottom Lines
Despite, or actually because of, the recent market turmoil, many large banks and brokers reported better-than-expected earnings. Market volatility provided a nice boost to trading revenue, which helped offset weakness in other business lines. Goldman Sachs, reporting earnings on Monday, […]
The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype
Recently, we have seen claims that the “collapsing” dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire statements. First, the dollar is not collapsing. Second, we […]
The Pause Heard Around The World
The S&P 500 surged 8.5% off its lows on Wednesday as the administration announced a 90-day tariff pause for all countries except China. Sound familiar? In Tuesday’s Commentary, we wrote: For those of you with bearish nightmares, we share one […]
Is The Bond Basis Trade Freaking Out The Bond Market?
What is up with the bond market? Many rumors are floating around. For instance, some claim China is selling Treasury bonds in retaliation for increased tariffs. Another rumor claims the bond market is besieged by investors raising money for equity […]
One Important Takeaway From Manic Monday
For those of you with bearish nightmares, we share one important takeaway from Monday’s market roller coaster. While there is a good chance the market may explore new lows over the coming months, we must appreciate that there is plenty […]