Are Oil Prices Driving The Iran Conflict?
In physics, kinetic equilibrium describes a system in which forces are balanced, and motion continues at a steady, unchanging rate. Felix Vezina-Poirier of BCA Research argues that we can apply kinetic equilibrium to the Iran conflict. Unlike most analysts, he […]
Prediction Markets: A New Sentiment Gauge For Traders
Prediction markets leader Polymarket has a daily contract that bets on whether the S&P 500 opens higher the next trading day. Yesterday’s contract, as shown below, implied just a 30% probability of an up open, despite the index gaining nearly […]
Alphabet And Intel: Q2 AI Earnings Kick Off
Alphabet reports earnings after today’s close, and Intel follows tomorrow. Together, they provide a first clue as to whether AI-related spending and investment continue at the brisk pace of the prior quarters. Alphabet represents the demand side for AI models. […]
Moonshot AI Raises Red Flags In The AI Industry
Moonshot AI, a Chinese company, just released AI model Kimi K3. Kimi K3 is a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-source AI model that the company claims is the largest ever built. With Kimi K3, Moonshot AI believes it can compete with Claude […]
The Deficit Spending Problem With A Non-Political Fix
The national deficit debate usually focuses on entitlement and defense spending. While they have merit, they miss the single largest driver of America’s deteriorating fiscal picture. After the pandemic-related deficits, the cost of borrowing itself, not spending, has been the […]
Inflation Will Be A Thing Of The Past- Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh delivered his first semiannual testimony to Congress earlier this week. In it, he used every opportunity to stress the urgency of returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. To wit, he stated, “Inflation will be a thing of […]
Why Are BDCs Ignoring Junk Bonds?
A reader recently asked us: “Why are BDCs diverging from corporate junk bonds?” To his point, the graph below shows the ICE BOA index of BB and B yield spreads to Treasuries are at or near 30-year lows. At the […]
IBM Stunned Investors: Reveals Industry Capex Reprioritization
Coming in on Tuesday morning, investors were expecting to sift through earnings from the largest banks and the CPI data. Instead, IBM stunned investors by pre-releasing its earnings 8 days in advance. Its earnings were much weaker than expected, with […]
The KOSPI Bubble
Semiconductor chip companies have been benefiting from strong momentum and a powerful narrative. For instance, memory chip producers like Micron, AMD, and Intel have risen by 192%, 138%, and 166%, respectively, year to date. While they provided a nice boost […]