Markets traded roughly 2% lower late Tuesday night, led lower by the Nasdaq, as results pointed to the Democrats taking Congress. The next morning, markets reversed course, with the S&P 500 opening about 1% higher. That is a three-point round trip in twelve hours, on identical information. This short missive focuses on patience, but first […]
On Monday, Oracle filed to sell $10 billion of common stock and $10 billion of debt. The stock fell roughly 8% after disclosing it would offer the new shares at an 11% discount to the current price. Oracle’s free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026, so it must fund AI data center […]
A reader asked: “You have said many times that gold has a strong negative correlation with real yields. If that is true, why did precious metals get hammered (last Friday) when yields were lower on the day?” Our model shows that gold tends to trend opposite to real yields (the yield on TIPS) over long […]
ZeroHedge carried a line this week from Goldman Sachs’ Delta One desk worth consideration: The point at which hyperscalers shift from needing more capacity at almost any cost to optimizing returns on what they’ve already built is the one I’d really worry about. What happens when hyperscalers’ spending on data centers slows? To help you […]
“The Committee will deliver price stability.” That promise has appeared in the FOMC statement in each of Warsh’s first three FOMC meetings. It deserves scrutiny because the Fed doesn’t usually make promises. Typically, the Fed Chair and FOMC describe economic and financial conditions and then state intentions. They tend to be shy about making promises […]
The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since June 1, but beneath the surface, a stealth bear market, driven by a series of significant value vs. growth rotations, has significantly impacted many S&P 500 members. Over the last five months, the S&P 500 is up about 1%, yet at some point during the period, 182 S&P […]
On Monday morning, Anthropic filed an SEC S1 form to begin the listing process on the Nasdaq under the symbol ANT. Three topics within the filing caught our attention. Let’s start with the financials, which are better than the headlines. Revenue for the first half of 2026 reached $16.3 billion, up sharply from $1.2 billion […]
According to Goldman Sachs prime brokerage division, hedge funds cut technology positions in mid-October at the fastest rate since 2016. The selling helps explain recent weakness in the Nasdaq 100, which recently had its worst week since April 2025. Goldman’s data also shows that global AI stocks gave back every dollar of net buying hedge […]
S&P 500 companies have been the marginal buyer of US stocks for a decade. Stock buybacks reached a record $1.020 trillion in the twelve months through September 2025, accounting for roughly 60% of all cash returned to shareholders. That tailwind has had a big impact on returns. If we decompose the S&P 500 return from […]