Inflation Expectations And Real Yields Tell Different Stories
Since the Iranian conflict began, bond yields have risen sharply due to investor expectations of a spike in inflation. Recent inflation data shows those rising inflation expectations are somewhat justified. In March and April, the monthly rate of inflation, as […]
Fed In Flux: Are They Turning Hawkish Or Neutral?
Last week’s release of the April FOMC minutes shows a growing push among the FOMC members to drop any indication of an easing bias. This has led the media to assume the Fed is more hawkish. Three weeks ago, at […]
SpaceX Is Ready For Launch
SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th. Below is a summary of key information from the SEC filing. IPO Offering: SpaceX is targeting a valuation ranging […]
Its Not Just Nvidia: Three Chips Power The Boom
When investors discuss the semiconductor chips driving AI infrastructure, they almost always key on Nvidia GPU chips. That’s not surprising, given the surge in Nvidia GPU revenue as we share below. Since 2024, GPU revenue has risen by over 1300% […]
Pipelines Are Defusing Iran’s Negotiating Leverage
Some political pundits think that Iran holds important negotiating cards versus the US if it can control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While that may hold some truth today and for the next few months, some of the world’s […]
The NVDA Earnings Report: Could It Pop The Gamma Bubble?
As we wrote in Yesterday’s Commentary, the broad market indexes have surged since the April lows, driven largely by a handful of technology and AI stocks and the benefit of massive options volumes. Among the leaders is Nvidia (NVDA), climbing […]
Market Mechanics Or Fundamentals: Whats Behind This Rally?
There is plenty in the media about whether this recent market surge is driven by strong earnings and upwardly revised earnings estimates, or by market mechanics. While earnings have been impressive, the bulk of the fundamental performance has been driven […]
The Fed Is Losing Its Biggest Dove
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman expires this Friday, with Kevin Warsh now confirmed by the Senate as his successor. The transition has implications beyond a change in the Fed’s leadership. Further, Stephen Miran, who was appointed Fed Governor in […]
China Trade Summit: Deal Or Delay?
Investors are optimistic that the Wednesday kickoff of the US-China trade summit, featuring President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, will result in a durable deal. The current hope is for an agreement currently labeled as a “Board […]