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IBM Stunned Investors: Reveals Industry Capex Reprioritization
Coming in on Tuesday morning, investors were expecting to sift through earnings from the largest banks and the CPI data. Instead, IBM stunned investors by pre-releasing its earnings 8 days in advance. Its earnings were much weaker than expected, with revenue well below expectations and EPS declining 2% year over year. As shown below, IBM […]
Jul 15, 2026
The KOSPI Bubble
Semiconductor chip companies have been benefiting from strong momentum and a powerful narrative. For instance, memory chip producers like Micron, AMD, and Intel have risen by 192%, 138%, and 166%, respectively, year to date. While they provided a nice boost to the Nasdaq and an impressive, albeit lesser, tailwind to the S&P 500, the impact […]
Jul 14, 2026
US Energy Efficiency: We Have Come A Long Way
The graph below paints a very interesting picture of US energy efficiency and a key structural economic change in this country. For roughly 25 years after WWII, the US economy’s crude oil consumption nearly tripled. Feeding the growth were a booming post-war economy and strong population growth. To put consumption in a different context, the […]
Jul 13, 2026
The Feds Ambiguous Guidance
The FOMC released the minutes from Chair Warsh’s first meeting on Wednesday, and the best word to describe the Fed’s advice is “ambiguous.” Merriam-Webster defines ambiguous as a state or, in this case, a statement that allows for more than one interpretation. Officials entertained policy scenarios in both hawkish and dovish ways. Some see inflation […]
Jul 10, 2026
The Low VIX Hides Fierce Undercurrents
Goldman Sachs’s volatility desk made the following comment: “With the VIX back to its lowest levels in more than a month, our Vol desk is focused on hedging opportunities as 1-month S&P implied correlation is near its lowest level in 20 years.” Simply, a low VIX can convey a sense of market calm on the […]
Jul 9, 2026
Is Global Liquidity Peaking?
Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital, is one of the most followed global liquidity analysts. Howell’s Global Liquidity Index (GLI) often tracks closely to a 65-month sine-wave cycle that has tracked liquidity conditions well since 1965. As we share below, the 65- month cycle (green) bottomed in October 2022 and peaked in August 2025, exactly […]
Jul 8, 2026
The Dollar Narrative Has Turned
Months ago, the financial headlines were littered with stern warnings that the dollar was depreciating rapidly. There was a popular narrative drawing fear that a dollar demise was imminent. A few short months later, the dollar narrative has flipped. According to today’s headlines and narratives, the tide has turned for the dollar. To wit: we […]
Jul 7, 2026
Forward Guidance: R.I.P
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first major public appearance, a panel at the ECB’s annual forum in Portugal, to formally bury one of the Fed’s most relied-upon tools of the last 25 years: forward guidance. Warsh could not be more direct about his opinion of forward guidance. To wit, when the moderator repeatedly pressed […]
Jul 6, 2026
The Yen At 40-Year Lows: Should You Care?
As shown below, the Japanese yen has fallen to levels not seen since the late 1980s. (Note the chart quotes yen per dollar, thus a higher figure represents a depreciating yen) We have written extensively about why the yen matters to US markets: the yen carry trade. The trade is relatively simple. An investor borrows […]
Jul 2, 2026
Debt Versus Equity: SPCX Bucks The Trend
Three weeks ago, we wrote A Supply Tsunami Is Coming. The article discussed why the world’s largest technology companies are choosing equity versus debt to fund their AI infrastructure buildouts. Simply, at 5% interest rates, issuing stock carries no interest expense, no refinancing risk, and no margin pressure. Alphabet raised $80 billion in equity. Meta […]
Jul 1, 2026
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