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Gold Miners Are Benefitting From The Speculative Boom
As we noted in a recent article entitled The High Beta Melt Up: Echoes of 1999, there has been a notable change in investor preferences since the April lows. To wit: “What we do know is that, starting from the April lows, the market’s attitude toward riskier, more speculative activities has become much more intense.” […]
Aug 26, 2025
Balance Of Risks Allows Powell To Pivot
“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” That key line from Chairman Powell’s opening speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium effectively summarizes Powell’s view on monetary policy. Simply, the change in the balance of risks since the BLS jobs revisions […]
Aug 25, 2025
Significant Rotations Hidden By Calm Markets
The market seas are calm, but beneath the surface, there is some intense churning, or in market terminology, significant stock rotations. Over the last week, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were relatively flat. Such gives the appearance of a low volatility, typical late August market with little going on. However, beneath the calm of […]
Aug 22, 2025
OPEX Overload: How 3 Trillion In Expirations Can Move Markets
Nearly $3 trillion of notional stock options expire on Friday’s open expiration (OPEX day). Over half of the OPEX volume is in S&P 500 options, with the remainder in single stock options. The graph below provides details on the split between puts and calls, and the strike prices and open interest of the options. Almost […]
Aug 21, 2025
Homebuilders Are Pessimistic But Buffett Likes Them
In Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s latest SEC disclosures, the company reported buying a nearly $1 billion stake in homebuilders Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI). The purchases signal anticipation of a housing market rebound, possibly piqued by the possibility of the Fed starting a rate-cutting regime. However, while Buffett appears confident of the new home […]
Aug 20, 2025
Will Powell Turn Dovish In Jackson Hole?
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is an annual event in which central bankers from the Fed and around the world gather with policymakers, economists, and financial market participants to discuss economic issues. At times, such as today, when monetary policy is in flux, the meetings serve […]
Aug 19, 2025
Euro Stocks Are In Vogue: Do Valuations Justify The Rotation?
Since 2015, the performance of the S&P 500 has been more than double that of stocks from the Euro STOXX 50 (FEZ) and the iShares developed markets ETF (EFA). However, recently the tide has turned, and the Euro and broader foreign stock indices are beating the S&P 500. The recent outperformance and significant valuation differences […]
Aug 18, 2025
Daily Commentary Template
Opening paragraph What To Watch Today Earnings Economy Market Trading Update Next Title Article (T,W,F) Tweet of the Day “Want to achieve better long-term success in managing your portfolio? Here are our 15-trading rules for managing market risks.” Please subscribe to the daily commentary to receive these updates every morning before the opening bell. If […]
Aug 15, 2025
Is Conviction The Biggest Risk To The Stock Market?
Edward Harrison of Bloomberg recently made the following important market observation: “buying stuff you don’t believe in creates downside risk.” Conviction is a measure of how much investors believe in their holdings. When conviction runs high, investors are often more willing to tolerate lower prices. In fact, some may add to their positions at lower prices. […]
CVs Signal Maturity In Private Equity
Private equity funds often buy assets intending to sell them and realize a profit over a specific period. However, recently it’s become more common that their assets are not ready to be sold when they had initially forecasted. While the fund can hold the assets longer than expected, fundholders may demand liquidity. Instead of selling […]
Aug 14, 2025
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