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What Does Kevin Warsh Bring To The Fed?
It appears that President Trump wants Kevin Hassett to remain in his role at the White House. With the supposed frontrunner to replace Powell out of the running, the nomination now seems open to Kevin Warsh. As the graph below shows, Polymarket bettors are assigning 60% odds that Kevin Warsh will be nominated. Given this, […]
Jan 21, 2026
The Money Supply Myth: Context Matters
Supporting the dollar-debasement narrative is the claim that money supply growth is out of control. For instance, we saw a post claiming “US money creation is happening at an alarming pace.” Specifically, he says the money supply increased by $1.65 trillion in 2025. Quoting the money supply, as he does, in absolute dollar terms is […]
Jan 20, 2026
A Weak Yen, The BOJ, And The Carry Trade
Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials are increasingly discussing the weak yen as a source of inflation. Their concern is that prolonged yen weakness raises import costs and encourages businesses to pass those costs on to consumers. Bear in mind that Japan imports almost 100% of its energy needs and a large portion of other essential […]
Jan 16, 2026
Luxury Slump Bankrupts Saks Fifth Avenue
“With the debt payment looming, time ran out.” That succinct summary ended a Wall Street Journal article titled: Saks Global Files for Bankruptcy, Undone by Debt and a Luxury Slump. A year ago, Saks Fifth Avenue’s parent company purchased its chief rival, Neiman Marcus, for $2.65 billion. The goal was to establish dominance and ultimately […]
Jan 15, 2026
Transportation Stocks Are At Odds With Truck Sales
Yesterday’s Commentary noted the recent strength in transportation stocks. For example, the transportation ETF (XTN) has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 9% over the last 25 trading days. The leading stocks within the ETF over this period include. ARCB (trucking), MATX (shipping), WERN (freight shipping), and FedEx (shipping). Some of the recent gains […]
Jan 14, 2026
DOJ Investigates Powell: Implications For Fed Policy?
Over the weekend, Jerome Powell revealed that the Department of Justice (DOJ) has opened a criminal investigation into his June testimony to Congress regarding the roughly $2.5 billion renovation of Federal Reserve headquarters. The DOJ has served subpoenas to the Fed and threatened a criminal indictment relating to that testimony. Such action by the DOJ […]
Jan 13, 2026
Fannie And Freddie To The Rescue
President Trump is using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help make housing more affordable. According to a TruthSocial post, the President claims Fannie and Freddie have a combined $200 billion in cash. Accordingly: I am instructing my Representatives (Fannie and Freddie) to buy $200 billion dollars In mortgage bonds. The hope is that increased […]
Jan 12, 2026
Stagnation Is Lulling The Fed To Sleep
The JOLTs data released on Wednesday paint a picture of labor market stagnation. The graph below shows that the number of job openings has fallen to levels similar to those right before the pandemic. While the number of openings seems somewhat stable, layoffs are slowly increasing, while new hires are near a 15-year low. Similarly, […]
Jan 9, 2026
Fed Challenges: Bill Dudley’s Take On 2026
Bill Dudley, a respected economist and President of the New York Fed during the Financial Crisis, penned a Bloomberg editorial outlining six challenges facing the Fed in 2026. Given his deep background in economics and intimate knowledge of the Fed, it’s worth providing a brief summary of his views. Independence is at the top of […]
Jan 8, 2026
Minerals, Russia, China & Iran: More On Venezuela
Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the potential impact of regime change in Venezuela on the energy sector. Today, we extend the analysis and examine other reasons for the invasion. The following theories are based on a Substack commentary from Tracy Shucart, an economist and resources trader. For starters, Tracy makes it clear that oil is not the […]
Jan 7, 2026
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