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NVDA To CPU Rotation: Durable Thesis Or Crowded Trade?
The semiconductor leaderboard has quietly flipped over the past month, and the NVDA to CPU rotation is worth pausing on. NVDA, the name that defined the AI trade for two-plus years, is up just 13.4% over the trailing month. The CPU cohort has run circles around it. AMD has ripped 70.4% higher, MU has added […]
May 4, 2026
AI Spending Receipts: Four Tech Giants, Four Different Verdicts
Wednesday’s mega-cap tech earnings produced one of the cleaner real-time experiments we’ve seen this cycle. Four hyperscalers reported. All four beat on revenue and earnings. All four committed to massive AI infrastructure spending. Yet the market reactions were wildly divergent: Alphabet surged 10% higher, while Amazon rose 0.8%, Microsoft fell 3.9%, and Meta fell 8.6%. […]
May 1, 2026
Powells Coda: Dissension In The Ranks
Presuming Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair is approved by the Senate, as is widely expected, yesterday’s FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell’s last as its Chair. However, he will stay on as a voting Governor. As he explains: Things that happened in the last 3 months left me no choice but to see them through […]
Apr 30, 2026
The Microsoft OpenAI Marriage Is On Rocky Ground
The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI has been a defining partnership in the blooming AI technology. But the partnership terms are changing, and what was once a solid relationship may be fracturing. On Monday morning, Microsoft shares quickly fell 5% as the Bloomberg headline “OpenAI Breaks Free From Exclusive AI Pact With Partner Microsoft” sent concern […]
Apr 29, 2026
SOX Pulls The Market Higher
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is on an incredible 18-day winning streak. Over this period, starting on March 31st, the SOX index has risen by 44%. This marks the longest winning streak in the index’s 32-year history. Moreover, it is now up 150% year over year, exceeding its 100% year-over-year gain during the dot-com boom. […]
Apr 28, 2026
Guidance Takes Precedence Over Earnings
On Thursday, the executives at Service Now (NOW) and IBM learned an important lesson the hard way as their stocks fell by 18% and nearly 10%, respectively. The stark message from Wall Street is that forward sales and earnings guidance now take precedence over recent financial results. IBM beat earnings expectations across the board. However, […]
Apr 27, 2026
Breadth Is Lacking: Is The Rally Sustainable?
Having just hit record highs following an historically impressive 13-day winning streak, stocks are susceptible to a pullback or, at a minimum, consolidation. Beyond the direction over the next week or two, the bigger question is what comes after that. The answer to the question will present itself over time. However, in the meantime, we […]
Apr 24, 2026
Can Warsh Reform The Fed
On Tuesday, Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate for his nomination hearing for the Fed Chair. The biggest takeaway is Warsh’s desire to “reform” the Fed. Based on his appearance, reform seems to cover the following three areas: Regarding current monetary policy, Warsh believes inflation is lower than official indicators state. We have noted this […]
Apr 23, 2026
CAR Is Racing Higher
Our title above about Avis Budget Group (CAR) shares is a gross understatement. Since March 20th, CAR has risen nearly 500%, as we share below. While there are, and were, some favorable tailwinds driving the upward trend, such as rising used-car prices and elevated rental-car usage during the TSA-related problems, the most glaring factor is […]
Apr 22, 2026
CPU vs. GPU: The Changing Semiconductor Landscape
Since the start of the year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX) is up 33% compared with the broader market, which is up only 4%. The primary rationale for the significant outperformance appears to be the insatiable demand for AI and a shift in its usage. Unlike the past couple of years, in which Nvidia […]
Apr 21, 2026
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