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The Confidence Gap: Noise Or Omen?
As shown in the graph below, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauges tells us that consumer confidence is now the worst its been since the survey began in 1952. Despite the confidence gauges being lower than during peak Covid shutdown, the GFC, and the 1970s oil crisis/inflation outbreak, the economy (GDP) and the employment […]
Apr 20, 2026
Allbirds: Hustling AI To Boost Its Shares
Allbirds, the sustainable sneaker company, has recently fallen on hard times, with revenue down by more than 50% from its peak. To help right the ship, Allbirds is rebranding itself as NewBird AI. Allbirds closed all of its U.S. stores and sold its intellectual property for $39 million. They are also raising $50 million in […]
Apr 17, 2026
The Market Knew And Proved It Again
On Monday, our Commentary, The Market Knows What You Don’t, shared an important lesson about how markets function. The message was timely, as fear and volatility over the prior few weeks had caused great anxiety among many investors. We wrote the following to help investors maintain a north star during these challenging times: Market prices […]
Apr 16, 2026
Is The Iran War Good For The Petrodollar?
Diana Choyleva wrote an excellent editorial for the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Iran War Is A Boon For The Petrodollar.” She pushes back against claims that the Iran conflict is accelerating the death of the petrodollar. Instead, she argues the opposite: between Iran and Venezuela, the U.S. is defending and bolstering dollar dominance in […]
Apr 15, 2026
Stable Coins Versus Banks: The Battle Over Interest Rates
A battle is raging in the Halls of Congress between the banks and the crypto industry. The spark was a judgment by the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, which recommended that stablecoins be allowed to pay interest to their holders. As a result of the Genius Act, passed almost a year ago, stablecoins are […]
Apr 14, 2026
The Market Knows What You Don’t
A client and friend asked us a timely question: “Why did we remove our hedge position so quickly after the ceasefire, especially with little evidence it will hold?” The simple answer is the market knows more than all of us. Market prices are based on all available information. Some of the information is widely known, […]
Apr 13, 2026
Delta Has An Ace In The Hole
On Wednesday, Delta Airlines announced it beat earnings expectations and, more importantly, its CEO maintained previous forward guidance despite the sharp increase in jet fuel prices. Delta CEO Ed Bastian cited a $2 billion quarterly fuel headwind caused by the conflict. While that added expense should weigh on earnings, Delta has a unique hedge that […]
Apr 9, 2026
Ceasefire Rally: Can The Market Hold New Support
Upon hearing of the ceasefire, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, and the stock market surged. In doing so, the S&P 500 broke well above resistance. Accordingly, the old resistance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) now becomes support. While no one knows whether the ceasefire will hold, the market is entering a seasonally favorable […]
The Berkshire War Chest: A Crisis Hedge?
Berkshire Hathaway now sits on $373 billion in Cash. They have enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500. For context, this is the largest cash stockpile since 2008. At that time, Berkshire used its cash not to buy stocks on the open market but largely to offer companies private deals that ordinary investors […]
Apr 8, 2026
An IPO Surge Hides Behind The Fog Of War
While Investors remain fixated on the Iranian conflict and the extreme volatility of oil prices, a historic wave of AI-driven IPOs is quietly building in the background. When the geopolitical fog clears, AI-related IPOs may become an important market narrative for the remainder of the year. As an appetizer, Anthropic, the Claude maker founded by […]
Apr 7, 2026
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