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Low Savings Boosts Spending Today But At A Cost Tomorrow
One of the most underappreciated risks to the economic outlook is the historically low personal savings rate and its impact on personal consumption. At roughly 2.6%, the current savings rate is the lowest since 1960, excluding a few years before the 2008 financial crisis and a month or two during the pandemic. For context, the […]
Jun 1, 2026
Crudes Biggest Moving Average Gap Since 1984
We thought we were done with our recent stream on crude oil prices, consumer confidence, and their impact on bond yields, but the graph below and analysis from a client of ours is a great encore to the recent commentaries (LINK LINK). Our first commentary stated: “While we understand the fear, the reality is that […]
May 29, 2026
Consumer Confidence Is Falling: Will Bond Yields Follow?
Yesterday’s Commentary led with a discussion of how bond yields have risen far more than bond market-implied inflation expectations. The fear of another inflation spike is negatively impacting bonds more than should be expected given implied inflation. While worrying about inflation, bond investors are not considering consumer confidence and how weaker economic activity due to […]
May 28, 2026
Inflation Expectations And Real Yields Tell Different Stories
Since the Iranian conflict began, bond yields have risen sharply due to investor expectations of a spike in inflation. Recent inflation data shows those rising inflation expectations are somewhat justified. In March and April, the monthly rate of inflation, as measured by CPI, rose by 0.86% and 0.64%, respectively. On an annualized basis, those equate […]
May 27, 2026
Fed In Flux: Are They Turning Hawkish Or Neutral?
Last week’s release of the April FOMC minutes shows a growing push among the FOMC members to drop any indication of an easing bias. This has led the media to assume the Fed is more hawkish. Three weeks ago, at that meeting, three members dissented because they felt the language in the statement was biased […]
May 26, 2026
SpaceX Is Ready For Launch
SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th. Below is a summary of key information from the SEC filing. IPO Offering: SpaceX is targeting a valuation ranging between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. For context, Broadcom is the 6th-largest company in the […]
May 22, 2026
Its Not Just Nvidia: Three Chips Power The Boom
When investors discuss the semiconductor chips driving AI infrastructure, they almost always key on Nvidia GPU chips. That’s not surprising, given the surge in Nvidia GPU revenue as we share below. Since 2024, GPU revenue has risen by over 1300% while Nvidia shares are up almost 400%. Nvidia has certainly played the lead role in […]
May 21, 2026
Pipelines Are Defusing Iran’s Negotiating Leverage
Some political pundits think that Iran holds important negotiating cards versus the US if it can control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While that may hold some truth today and for the next few months, some of the world’s largest oil producers are ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz is not the lynchpin it […]
May 20, 2026
The NVDA Earnings Report: Could It Pop The Gamma Bubble?
As we wrote in Yesterday’s Commentary, the broad market indexes have surged since the April lows, driven largely by a handful of technology and AI stocks and the benefit of massive options volumes. Among the leaders is Nvidia (NVDA), climbing nearly 40% from the April lows. Tomorrow, NVDA reports earnings, which, given its leadership role […]
May 19, 2026
Market Mechanics Or Fundamentals: Whats Behind This Rally?
There is plenty in the media about whether this recent market surge is driven by strong earnings and upwardly revised earnings estimates, or by market mechanics. While earnings have been impressive, the bulk of the fundamental performance has been driven by a handful of AI/technology companies. Similarly, while the broad market indexes have performed well, […]
May 18, 2026
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