IBM Stunned Investors: Reveals Industry Capex Reprioritization
Coming in on Tuesday morning, investors were expecting to sift through earnings from the largest banks and the CPI data. Instead, IBM stunned investors by pre-releasing its earnings 8 days in advance. Its earnings were much weaker than expected, with […]
The KOSPI Bubble
Semiconductor chip companies have been benefiting from strong momentum and a powerful narrative. For instance, memory chip producers like Micron, AMD, and Intel have risen by 192%, 138%, and 166%, respectively, year to date. While they provided a nice boost […]
US Energy Efficiency: We Have Come A Long Way
The graph below paints a very interesting picture of US energy efficiency and a key structural economic change in this country. For roughly 25 years after WWII, the US economy’s crude oil consumption nearly tripled. Feeding the growth were a […]
The Feds Ambiguous Guidance
The FOMC released the minutes from Chair Warsh’s first meeting on Wednesday, and the best word to describe the Fed’s advice is “ambiguous.” Merriam-Webster defines ambiguous as a state or, in this case, a statement that allows for more than […]
The Low VIX Hides Fierce Undercurrents
Goldman Sachs’s volatility desk made the following comment: “With the VIX back to its lowest levels in more than a month, our Vol desk is focused on hedging opportunities as 1-month S&P implied correlation is near its lowest level in […]
Is Global Liquidity Peaking?
Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital, is one of the most followed global liquidity analysts. Howell’s Global Liquidity Index (GLI) often tracks closely to a 65-month sine-wave cycle that has tracked liquidity conditions well since 1965. As we share below, […]
The Dollar Narrative Has Turned
Months ago, the financial headlines were littered with stern warnings that the dollar was depreciating rapidly. There was a popular narrative drawing fear that a dollar demise was imminent. A few short months later, the dollar narrative has flipped. According […]
Forward Guidance: R.I.P
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first major public appearance, a panel at the ECB’s annual forum in Portugal, to formally bury one of the Fed’s most relied-upon tools of the last 25 years: forward guidance. Warsh could not be […]
The Yen At 40-Year Lows: Should You Care?
As shown below, the Japanese yen has fallen to levels not seen since the late 1980s. (Note the chart quotes yen per dollar, thus a higher figure represents a depreciating yen) We have written extensively about why the yen matters […]