BLS And ADP Reports Take Rate Hike Off The Table
The Friday BLS employment report showed the economy lost 23k jobs. Along with last Wednesday’s ADP report (+44k), the two reports suggest the spring pickup in job growth is stalling. Adding to the bad news, the BLS revised May and […]
AMD and SanDisk Set A High Bar For Nvidia
AMD and SanDisk (SNDK) delivered earnings beats this week, yet both stocks fell. AMD posted record revenue up 50% year over year, with data center revenue more than doubling. Its CEO Lisa Su said she expects “Data Center sales to […]
Palantir Earnings Provide Hope For The Software Sector
Software stocks have taken a beating this year on fears that AI will erode pricing power across the industry. While the fear may be genuine for some companies, Palantir posted earnings that told a vastly different story. To wit, its […]
The BEA Is Reformulating Its Key Inflation Gauge
According to A Statistical Revamp Is About To Lower Inflation by The Wall Street Journal, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is reformulating its Core PCE calculation. The markets seem to focus on CPI as its inflation gauge, while the […]
Bessent Is Buying Yen In Support Of US Bonds?
The US Treasury bought Japanese yen last Friday and again Monday morning in its first coordinated intervention in the currency since 2011, following Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. It is only the third such move since 1998. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent […]
Leverage Turned A Winning Thesis Into A Stupid Bet
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness Fund turned $225 million into as much as $45 billion. Not bad for a 24-year-old with little experience. In June alone, his fund was up 439% year-to-date. Despite the rapid wild success, last Thursday the fund […]
Long Bonds Are Weary Of Warsh’s Inflation Resolve
At Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, Chair Warsh made it clear that the Fed’s number one goal is returning inflation to its 2% target. The reaction in the long end of the bond market was one of disbelief. The 2-year yield […]
A September Rate Hike Is On The Table
Despite the market assigning a moderate 35% chance of a rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates unchanged. However, three dissenting voters (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) wanted a rate hike. The Fed Funds futures market is now […]
Will High Oil Prices Force The Fed’s Hand
The FOMC meeting concludes today with the rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Heading into today’s announcement, the market is placing 62% odds the Fed holds rates at the current 3.50% to […]