Throughout history, bull market cycles make up on one-half of the “full market” cycle. During every “bull market” cycle, the market and economy build up excesses which must ultimately be reversed through a market reversion and economic recession. In the other words, “What goes up, must come down.”
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Share buybacks have been a major driver of the markets advance in recent years, but the bear market and economic crash from the pandemic have put an end to that. Where will stocks find their support to drive higher in the midst of debt deleveraging and financial crisis.
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The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, financial planning, and our 401k plan manager.
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RIA Advisors is proud to present the 2020 Investment Summit. Hosted By: Lance Roberts, CIO RIA Advisors. Featuring:Michael Lebowitz, CFA – RIA Portfolio Manager, Teddy Valle – Pervalle Global, Thomas Thornton – HedgeFund Telemetry, and Jeffery Marcus – TP Analytics
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Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.
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According to the Statistical Crash Probability Analysis (SCPA) forecast the probability is 100% that the relief rally high has either already occurred or will occur by April 8, 2020. The probability is the same for the markets of the six countries to make new lows by April 30, 2020.
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J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis. Each month Brett will provide you…
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Short term pragmatic solutions always seem to be the answer to crisis. Now in a fresh crisis, the Fed once again has no capacity to look beyond the crisis to the consequences of their actions.
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The market has had a sharp rally over the last couple of weeks, which has investors feeling all “bullish” again hoping the crash in March was just an anomaly. However, there are some questions that “bullish investors” need to answer before assuming the markets are “all clear” of what ails them.
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“I bought it for the dividend,” is not an investment strategy, it is a rationalization for not having properly managed portfolio risk during declines. While the idea of buying dividend stocks is correct, there is a better way to do it over the long-run.
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The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, financial planning, and our 401k plan manager.
>> Read More
Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a fight to offset an economic shock bigger than the financial crisis, and they are engaging every possible monetary tool within their arsenal to achieve that goal. The Fed is no longer just a “last resort” for the financial institutions, but now are the lender for the broader economy.
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Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.
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As an investor, seeing the field more clearly can be an advantage. Remember, it’s never different this time. Nor, however, is it ever the same. This makes for a difficult paradox to navigate. It’s in chaotic times when an investment framework is most valuable.
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The Fed is hopeful they can inflate another asset bubble to restore consumer confidence and stabilize the functioning of the credit markets. The problem is that since the Fed never unwound their previous policies, current policies are having a much more muted effect.
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While the coronavirus will eventually dissipate, the increasing premium on merit is likely to hang around. The bad news is that in many cases it will be too late to avoid the harm caused by leaders and managers and advisors who exploited favorable conditions for personal advantage.
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The SCPA now says that the probability is 100% that the indices will rally by 18% off of the lows. The probability is 50% that the indices could increase by 23% from their lows. Everyone should take advantage of the Bear market rally that is currently underway to sell and reduce exposure.
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Short term pragmatic solutions always seem to be the answer to crisis. Now in a fresh crisis, the Fed once again has no capacity to look beyond the crisis to the consequences of their actions.
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The market tanks on Monday following an escalation of Fed policy into “QE Infinity” as Congress balks at getting Fiscal stimulus passed. The good news is the first phase of the bear market is getting exhausted and a set for a reflexive bounce is near.
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CNBC recently suggested that if you panic sell you could well miss the “best days” of the market. But is that what you should really worry about? We examine the myth of the 10-best days and look at a strategy to invest better.
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The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, financial planning, and our 401k plan manager.
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Yes, we are in a recession, it has just started, and we have quite a ways to go before it is over. Unfortunately, both Larry Kudlow, Steve Mnuchin, and the Fed, are still misdiagnosing what ails the economy, and monetary policy is unlikely to change the outcome in the U.S. We have months to go before we are done.
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Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.
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Many investors are salivating to trade the dips in a stock market which is becoming increasingly more volatile. It’s because Wall Street for the week ended March 13th according to the headlines had its worst week since 2008. Its human nature to want to buy at fire sale prices.
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“Stocks down, Bonds down, credit down, gold down, oil down, copper down, crypto down, global systemically important banks down, and liquidity down…Today was the worst day for a combined equity/bond portfolio… ever…”This is what a “Margin Call,” looks like.
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Short term pragmatic solutions always seem to be the answer to crisis. Now in a fresh crisis, the Fed once again has no capacity to look beyond the crisis to the consequences of their actions.
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With a global recession underway, there are too many uncontrollable risks currently to maintain high levels of equity exposures. With the long-term bull trend now broken, cash is king.
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Is the bear market over yet?This is the question that everyone wants to know. We dig into corporate profits and earnings to discover where we are in the current cycle and just when the real bottom might be in.
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“Will it get worse before it gets better? Lance Roberts, chief investment strategist with RIA Advisors, explains how the COVID-19 coronavirus is impacting our economy.”
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The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, financial planning, and our 401k plan manager.
>> Read More
