Category Archives: Investing

Market Continues “Euphoric” Advance As 3500 Becomes Next Target

Written by Lance Roberts | Jan 18, 2020

The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, financial planning, and our 401k plan manager.

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MacroView: 2020 Market & Investment Outlook

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts | Jan 17, 2020

The Fed’s problem is not only are they caught in an “economic liquidity trap,” where monetary policy has become ineffective in stimulating economic growth, but are also captive to a “market liquidity trap.”

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Yeah…But

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott | Jan 15, 2020

Yeah… Barry Bonds, a Major League Baseball (MLB) player, put up some amazing stats in…

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Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts – Part Deux

Written by Lance Roberts | Jan 14, 2020

A second look at the overly optimistic structure of the market currently as “everyone is in the equity pool.” Combined with the technical deviations of the long-term mean, this is why we recently reduced risk.

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MacroView: Has The Fed Trapped Itself?

Written by Lance Roberts | Jan 11, 2020

The Fed’s problem is not only are they caught in an “economic liquidity trap,” where monetary policy has become ineffective in stimulating economic growth, but are also captive to a “market liquidity trap.”

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Market Bubbles: It’s Not The Price, It’s The Mentality.

Written by Lance Roberts | Jan 9, 2020

The increase in speculative risks, combined with excess leverage, leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction at some point in the future. The only missing ingredient for such a correction is the catalyst to bring “fear” into an overly complacent marketplace. 

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Investing Versus Speculating

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott | Jan 8, 2020

Value investors understand that compounding wealth depends on avoiding large losses. These terms and their proper definitions serve as a rock-solid foundation for sound reasoning and analytical rigor of market forces, central bank policies, and geopolitical dynamics that influence global liquidity, asset prices, and valuations. They enable critical foresight.

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Technically Speaking: Markets Dismiss Iran As The Fed “Put” Remains

Written by Lance Roberts | Jan 7, 2020

You would think that with the U.S. taking out a top Iranian commander, threats of military action flying between the U.S. and Iran, not to mention the “Selective Service” website crashing over concerns of World War III, the markets would be in full “sell” mode. If you thought that would be the case, you were wrong.

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The Next Decade: Valuations & The Destiny Of Low Returns

Written by Lance Roberts | Jan 6, 2020

The two previous 20-year secular bull markets begin with valuations in single digits. At the end of the first decade of those secular advances, valuations were still trading below 20x.The 1920-1929 secular advance most closely mimics the current 2010 cycle. While valuations started below 5x earnings in 1919, they eclipsed 30x earnings ten-years later in 1929. The rest, as they say, is history. Or rather, maybe “past is prologue” is more fitting.

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