NFIB Survey: Sends A Strong Warning About Small-Cap Stocks
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan 18, 2021In September 2019, I wrote “NFIB Survey Trips Economic Alarms,” Of course, it was just…
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Shedlock: Reader Asks Why The Is Euro So Strong?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan 14, 2021Why is the Euro currency so strong? It is not that everything is hunky-dory here because it definitely isn’t. But what about the dollar? Is it any better?
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Five Forces Driving The 2021 Economy
Written by Patrick Hill | Jan 10, 2021A look at the path of the pandemic, the economic destruction it caused, and the five forces that will drive the economy in 2021 and beyond.
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#MacroView: El-Erian & The Two Primary Risks In 2021
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan 8, 2021After years of Central Bank interventions, stock markets have soared to record highs, while economic growth has remained weak. Mohamed El-Erian recently discussed the two primary risks heading into 2021.
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Why The Second Stimulus Won’t Have Much Economic Impact
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec 23, 2020Will more fiscal stimulus really cure what ails the economy? Or, will more debt, bigger deficits, and more spending, continue to lead us down the same path we have seen over the last three decades.
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Work From Home Threatens Commercial Real Estate Valuations
Written by Patrick Hill | Dec 10, 2020Working from home is will result in significant headwinds for the commercial office real estate for at least the next several years.
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Shedlock: The Great Inflation Debate. When & How Big?
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov 26, 2020Jim Bianco at Bianco Research shares his views on the great inflation debate. When it will come, how big it will be, and when the Fed will hike
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#MacroView: A Vaccine And The “New New Normal”
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov 20, 2020Pfizer announced a potential vaccine for COVID-19 that was 90% effective. While a “vaccine” will eventually come to the market, it will only ensure a return to the “New New Normal.”
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#MacroView: Is The Fed Stuck With “Forever Stimulus?”
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov 13, 2020I recently discussed the “Importance of Recessions” and how “Rescues Ruining Capitalism.” While the data is clear that ongoing stimulus programs lead to weaker economic growth and rising wealth gap, is the Fed stuck with “forever stimulus?”
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The Housing Debt Bubble Is Going To Burst
Written by Patrick Hill | Nov 12, 2020A perfect economic storm for the housing debt bubble is gathering strength from the health, social and financial forces identified in this article
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#MacroView: The Rescues Are Ruining Capitalism
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov 6, 2020A recent WallStreet Journal article touched on the subject of how the ongoing bailouts and rescues are ruining capitalism. We dig deeper into the issue to understand why.
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Shedlock: Unemployment Plunges. BLS Says 2.2 Million Find Work
Written by Mike Shedlock | Nov 6, 2020While the recent drop in unemployment claims was celebrated by the markets and media, it shouldn’t have been. The drop in unemployment claims occurred for the wrong reason.
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Podcast With Sara Grillo: Are We Still A Capitalist Nation
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov 5, 2020I recently joined my friend, Sara Grillo, for a conversation about capitalism, and whether we are still a capitalist nation.
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#MacroView: The Fed Will Monetize All Of The Debt Issuance
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 30, 2020With debts and deficits rising along with demands for more Government support, weaker economic growth will force the Fed to monetize the entirety of future debt issuance to keep rates low.
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Why Debt-To-Income Ratios Are Worse Than They Appear
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 26, 2020One of the arguments that consumers remain health is that “debt-to-income” ratios are at 40-year lows. Unfortunately, it is an illusion caused by the rising “wealth gap” in America by the top-10% of income earners.
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#MacroView: Policies Over Politics. Whoever Wins, We All Lose
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 23, 2020While you are likely confident why your candidate is the best choice, and the opposition is the worst, when it comes to economic prosperity and the financial markets, it is generally better to focus on the “policies,” and not the “politics.”
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Shedlock: Unemployment Claims Drop For The Wrong Reason
Written by Mike Shedlock | Oct 23, 2020While the recent drop in unemployment claims was celebrated by the markets and media, it shouldn’t have been. The drop in unemployment claims occurred for the wrong reason.
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#MacroView: Recessions Are A Good Thing, Let Them Happen
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 16, 2020The Federal Reserve believes recessions “are bad.” and have gone to great lengths to avoid them. However, what if “recessions are a good thing,” and we just let them happen?
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The K-Shaped Recovery. A “V” For Some, Not For Most.
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 12, 2020Economists have come up with every variation of applying a letter of the alphabet to the economic recovery. Whether it’s an “L,” a “W” or a “V,” there is a letter that suits your view. But what is a “K”-shaped recovery?
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#MacroView: More Stimulus And The 2nd Derivative Effect
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 9, 2020Will more fiscal stimulus really cure what ails the economy? Or, will more debt, bigger deficits, and more spending, continue to lead us down the same path we have seen over the last three decades.
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Fed Study: How We Made The Top 10% Richer Than Ever.
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 5, 2020The 2019 Fed survey confirms statements made previously regarding about how the Fed’s monetary interventions made the top 10% more prosperous than ever, and left the rest of Americans behind.
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#MacroView: CBO – The “One-Way Trip” Of American Debt
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 2, 2020The amount of outstanding debt, and the subsequent deficit, has long been a problem in the U.S. With each passing year, growth rates weaken, and economic prosperity worsens. The latest CBO report substantiates the problem.
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Shedlock: Income Down, Spending Up As Stimulus Runs Out
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 1, 2020In the latest personal income and spending reports, income was down but spending was up even as stimulus measures run out.
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“Enormous Uncertainty” Despite Fed Fueled Market Surge.
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 28, 2020“Enormous Uncerntainty.” Such is despite a surging stock market from the March lows, trillions in liquidity support from the Fed, and a rebound in economic activity. So, what’s the problem?
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Shedlock: Consumer Mood Darkens On Employment Prospects
Written by Mike Shedlock | Sep 24, 2020The darkening mood is not surprising. The Fed has great faith in surveys and expectations except when they contradict Fed group think. This applies even to its own surveys.
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Executive – Employee Catch-22 Jeopardizes The Recovery
Written by Patrick Hill | Sep 24, 2020Executives will not hire until they see sustainable sales growth and employees will not spend until they feel confident about their job future
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Seth Levine: “Will NYC Die?” It’s Up To You.
Written by Seth Levine | Sep 24, 2020For now, my life depends on NYC’s fate. I neither want to witness its destruction nor miss its renaissance. This is a trade I want to get right. So what’s it going to be New York? It’s up to you (us).
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Shedlock: Huge Discrepancies Cast Doubt On Jobs Report
Written by Mike Shedlock | Sep 5, 2020While the August jobs report was better than expected, a litany of discrepancies cast serious doubt on the report and the strength of the recovery.
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#MacroView: 5-Reasons The Fed’s New Policy Won’t Get Inflation
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 4, 2020At the recent Jackson Hole Economic Summit, Jerome Powell unveiled the Fed’s new monetary policy designed to create inflation. Unfortunately, there are 5-reasons why the Fed will not get inflation, and why deflation is the bigger risk.
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Markowski: Probability Of V-Shaped Recovery Is Very Low
Written by Guest Author | Aug 29, 2020The probability of a “V-shaped” economic recovery is very low.
For Q2-2020, US GDP experienced its worst-ever contraction of 32%. The key question is how fast will it recover?
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