The Coming “Reversion To The Mean” Of Economic Growth
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 24, 2021From stimulus boom to income thud, the coming “reversion to the mean” of economic growth is happening faster than economists expected.
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Expecting “Stimulus?” Household Credit Explodes Higher.
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 20, 2021As stimulus payments ran dry, individuals turned back to spending on credit to make ends meet. Are they more solvent or is it an illusion?
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#MacroView: Deficit Deniers & 40-Years Of Economic Erosion
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 17, 2021After 40-years of economic erosion, deficit deniers remain. The belief debt and deficits “don’t matter” is only supported by the fact the U.S. economy hasn’t become Weimer, Germany.
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#MacroView: The Insecurity Of Social Security
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 10, 2021The latest report from the Social Security Board of Trustees revealed the vast insecurity of the welfare programs and the problem facing retirees.
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Patrick Hill: Can The Fed Achieve Full Employment Without Inflation?
Written by Patrick Hill | Sep 9, 2021Can the Fed achieve full employment without triggering run away surging inflation?
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The Data Shows The Fed Is Behind The Surging Wealth Gap
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug 13, 2021The data shows the Fed is behind the surging wealth gap. Such is despite protestations “Quantitative Easing” and “Zero Interest Rate Policy” do not affect the financial markets. But is that really the case?
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Was That The Peak Of Economic Growth & Earnings
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug 9, 2021Was the second quarter the peak of economic growth and earnings? If estimates are correct and the year-over-year “base effect” fades, such suggests risk to current earnings estimates.
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#MacroView: MMT – When Theories Collide With Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug 6, 2021Previously we discussed Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its one limitation of inflation. However, as is always the case when “theories” collide with “reality,” the tenants of the theory are quickly discarded.
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A Grossly Defective Product. How Strong Is The Economy Really?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug 2, 2021The recent release of the Q2-2021 GDP report, while strong, left much to be desired. Is it really a “Grossly Defective Product” as Paul Wallace once termed it. We look at some alternative measures to judge.
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Krugman’s Delusion: The Difference Of Theory Versus Reality.
Written by Lance Roberts | Jul 30, 2021In a recent interview with Business Insider, Paul Krugman’s delusion was evident as the difference between economic theory and reality was on full display.
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#MacroView: Shortest Recession In History Sets Up Next Recession
Written by Lance Roberts | Jul 23, 2021The recession of 2020 was the shortest in history. Given the recession was cut short by record interventions the next recession is now advanced.
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Shedlock: Inflation & Other Wildly Believed Economic Nonsense
Written by Mike Shedlock | Jul 17, 2021The CPI Measures Inflation and Other Widely Believed Economic Nonsense
The Fed, mainstream media, and others have a spotlight on the CPI and that’s the wrong spotlight.
#MacroView: Monetary Policy Is Not Expansionary.
Written by Lance Roberts | Jul 16, 2021Monetary policy is not expansionary despite widespread belief otherwise. We review the actions by the Fed over the last decade and why it isn’t working.
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Infrastructure Spending Could Be Good, But It Won’t Be.
Written by Lance Roberts | Jul 12, 2021Infrastructure spending can be economically beneficial. But, unfortunately, the type of “spending” the Democrats are proposing will not be.
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Patrick Hill: Persistent Inflation Threatens the Recovery
Written by Patrick Hill | Jul 5, 2021Patrick Hill combs through economic data to determine whether or not higher prices and wages will lead to inflation becoming embedded into the economy.
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#MacroView: Capitalism Does Not Equal Corporatism – Pt. 2
Written by Lance Roberts | Jul 2, 2021The problem is continuous interventions to halt the “Darwinian” function of “capitalism.” That brutal process must function; otherwise, it leads to “corporatism.”
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#MacroView: Capitalism Does Not Equal Corporatism – Pt. 1
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun 25, 2021“Capitalism” is not the same as “Corporatism.” Yet, whenever you mention capitalism, there is palpable anger that arises from a fundamental widespread belief.
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The Zero To Negative Multiplier Of Debt On Growth
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun 21, 2021There is a zero to a negative multiplier of debt on economic growth. The recent spending spree of the Government to facilitate a transition to a socialistic economy requires a massive increase in debt.
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You Can’t Create Permanent Inflation From Artificial Growth
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun 18, 2021The Biden Administration is discussing hiking corporate taxes. While the goal is to ensure the “rich pay their fair share,” a look at history suggests changing tax rates will have little impact on economic outcomes.
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#MacroView: Yellen & The Big Push To Offshore US Labor
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun 4, 2021Janet Yellen’s latest commitment to support the Biden progressive agenda from higher taxes, to unionization, will not lead to increased economic prosperity. Instead it will lead to more outsourcing and offshoring of U.S. Labor.
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Patrick Hill: Job Churn Creates Massive Economic Uncertainty
Written by Patrick Hill | May 27, 2021The media tells the story of a quickly improving labor market. Behind the scenes data reveal much more uncertainty.
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Hiking Corporate Taxes Won’t Improve Economic Outcomes
Written by Lance Roberts | May 24, 2021The Biden Administration is discussing hiking corporate taxes. While the goal is to ensure the “rich pay their fair share,” a look at history suggests changing tax rates will have little impact on economic outcomes.
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#MacroView: NFIB Data Says It’s Only An Economic Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | May 14, 2021The latest NFIB survey data clearly shows we are in an economic “recovery” rather than an economic “boom.” The difference is quite important.
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March Jobs Report – Millions Missing From The Roles
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 12, 2021Recently, the March jobs report showed a whopping 916,000 new jobs. Interestingly, there were some anomalies in the data and millions missing from the official count.
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Shedlock: Lacy Hunt & Expectations For Decelerating Inflation
Written by Mike Shedlock | Apr 11, 2021Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management has some interesting thoughts regarding the inflation debate and the potential for decelerating inflation.
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#MacroView: Debt Fueled Spending Won’t Create Growth
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 9, 2021More debt equals less growth. In October, I discussed the “2nd Derivative Effect” and the ongoing cost of the stimulus. With the passage of the $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan,” will the math of debt to growth change?
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Shedlock: Inflation Is Rampant But Fed Dismisses It
Written by Mike Shedlock | Apr 1, 2021Home prices are running rampant. The national level average year-over-year increase is 11.2%. The Fed does not see this or count it if they do.
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Patrick Hill: The Twilight Zone Economy
Written by Patrick Hill | Apr 1, 2021Today, economic leaders base policies on a hoped-for utopia with bubbles called ‘growing markets’ and greed termed ‘good valuations’.
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Biden’s Stimulus Will Cut Poverty By 40% – For One Year.
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 29, 2021Unlike the New Deal, Biden’s American Rescue Plan will only help the poor for one year. As is always the case, socialistic policies, sound great in theory, but rarely work as expected in reality.
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#MacroView: Is Hyperinflation Really A Threat?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 19, 2021With the measure of money in the system, known as M2, is skyrocketing, is there a real threat of hyperinflation and a return to Weimer, Germany.
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