“What the K-shaped economy gets right, what it exaggerates, and what believing the worst version is costing a generation.” The bottom half of American households owns about 2.5% of the nation’s wealth. That number is real, and it ought to bother you. However, that number is also higher than it was in 2019 and 2015, […]
Wall Street’s latest doom thesis says the Fed is trapped and a US debt trap is nearly here, but it never names a date, and the data says the trap door isn’t opening. Every few months, a new essay declares that the US debt trap has finally sprung. The latest one making the rounds from […]
While the AI bears focus on concentration and circular financing, the last tech overbuild was financed with debt, and this one is being paid for in cash. Before I discuss why I disagree with the “AI bears,” I want to state that I respect their opinions, have evaluated their concerns, and have simply derived a […]
Democratic Socialism promises affordability and fairness. The bill, from Caracas to Copenhagen, is something else entirely. On January 1st, a self-described democratic socialist was sworn in as mayor of the largest city in America. Weeks before that, socialist candidates swept a wave of primaries, sending the largest bloc of socialist legislators in New York history […]
A 5% long bond isn’t the crisis, it’s the receipt, and the fifteen years when money was free did far more damage to growth than normal interest rates ever will. This past week, two charts crossed my desk, arguing the same thing from opposite ends. The Kobeissi Letter flagged that U.S. borrowing rates just hit […]
Japan didn’t just spark a currency crisis; it reminded everyone that the Fed has quietly backstopped the dollar for 60 years. The Yen intervention is not new, and while the “end of fiat, buy gold” crowd is right about the destination, they are wrong about the departure time. Every time somebody touches the plumbing of […]
A return to sound money has become the rallying cry for a growing crowd of investors, politicians, and commentators who are, understandably, fed up. Fed up with deficits that never shrink, with a national debt north of $39 trillion, with a dollar that buys a little less every year. The pitch is elegant. Back the […]
The AI “bear case” isn’t one argument; it’s three. Burry on earnings. Bernstein on circular financing. MIT on revenue. Two are half right. One falls apart on the data. Michael Burry broke a two-year silence on November 11 to accuse the world’s largest technology companies of cooking their books, calling it one of the more […]
The second-quarter earnings season is in full swing. So far, the results are landing in line or better than the upwardly revised Wall Street estimates. That's the opposite of how this usually works. Analysts normally trim their forecasts as a year wears on. In 2026, they've done the opposite.