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Economics

The Deficit Narrative May Find Its Cure In Artificial Intelligence

Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may […]

Ray Dalio Is Predicting A Financial Crisis…Again.

Ray Dalio, the former head of Bridgewater Associates, is back in the media, trying to stay relevant by claiming the “deficit has become critical.” ” “It’s like … I’m a doctor, and I’m looking at the patient, and I’ve said, you’re […]

Moody’s Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?

This morning, markets are reacting to Moody’s rating downgrade of U.S. debt. For those promoting egregious amounts of “bear porn,” this is nirvana for fear-mongering headlines that gain clicks and views. However, as investors, we need to step back and […]

Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing

While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing. The reason the employment data is so important is that without employment growth, the economy stalls. It takes, on average, […]

Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly

Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus […]

The Consumer Is Tapping Out

The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag […]

The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?

A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. When sentiment […]

The Risk Of A Recession Isn’t Zero

The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial […]

Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?

I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation. The recent experience of inflation in 2021 and 2022 […]