After a brief post-Presidential election surge in 2016, the U.S. dollar has been in a steady downtrend since early-2017. The dollar’s grind lower has helped to boost non-U.S. currencies as well…
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One of the worst possible outcomes for the U.S. economy, and ultimately for investors, is stagflation. Of course, if you weren’t around in the 60-70’s, there is a reasonably high…
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A few days ago, Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, told an attendees at an event at Howard University that Wall Street is “forgetting the lessons of the 2008…
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The stock market has been rallying on the surge in global economic growth (recently monikered global synchronized growth) over the past year. The hope, as always, is that growth is…
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Four years ago, I wrote a piece for Forbes called “This New Libor ‘Scandal’ Will Cause A Terrifying Financial Crisis,” in which I explained that the “real” Libor scandal wasn’t…
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The tech startup boom has been one of the most important and visible economic “growth engines” of the past half-decade. The boom was spurred, in large part, by the success…
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As we approach “tax day” in the U.S., I wanted to take a moment to revisit the issue of taxes, who pays what, and why the “Tax Cut and Jobs…
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In December of last year, as Congress voted to pass the “Tax Cut & Jobs Act,” I wrote that without “real and substantive cuts to spending,” the debt and deficits…
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“The market is reacting in a way which does not comport with the strength, the unbelievable strength in President Trump’s economy. I mean, everything in this economy is hitting on…
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It is an interesting thing. Throughout the last four decades there is a direct link between the actions of the Federal Reserve and the eventual economic and market outcomes due…
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Last week, Kevin Muir wrote a very interesting piece on debt and whether it is inflationary or deflationary. To wit: “One of the greatest debates within the financial community centers around…
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Failing To Plan Is Planning To Fail by Michael Lebowitz, CFA There is a durable bit of market wisdom that states “volatility begets volatility.” The gist of the saying is…
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Yesterday, on the “Real Investment Hour” I spoke with my dear friend Danielle DiMartino-Booth, best selling author of Fed Up, about the recent Federal Reserve policy announcement. Danielle takes a…
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Since the start of the year, I’ve been watching and showing that the “smart money” (commercial futures hedgers) have been bullish on U.S. Treasury bonds and bearish on crude oil,…
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Are we in a depression? The question seems absurd. There has been GDP growth since 2009 and some mild inflation to go with it. In fact, this is the second…
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Last week, on the “Real Investment Hour” I spent some time with world renowned blogger and writer, Mike “Mish” Shedlock discussing the recent moves by the Trump Administration to engage…
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The Fed’s Dilemma The confusion at the Fed continues. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell justified hiking rates 0.25%, while maintaining their projections of two further hikes this year, by painting an…
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It’s hard for one of the biggest bond managers in the world to forecast a recession when financial conditions are as favorable as they are now. Still, PIMCO isn’t sure…
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Yesterday, on the “Real Investment Hour” we were privileged to visit with Nomi Prins to discuss the Fed’s rate hike decision yesterday and the end result of the ongoing surge…
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In just a little more than six months, the U.S. national debt has grown by a $1 trillion dollars. Today, Congress will debate on a $1.3 trillion “Omnibus spending bill”…
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