We have previously warned that employment data was suggesting the economy was much weaker than expected. As such, it was only a function of time until an exogenous, unexpected, event began the cascade of a recession and bear market.
>> Read More
The recession caused by the Covid-19 virus will be deeper and last longer than the Financial Crisis. It will take a long time, if ever, for the same sentiment to return. Spending will not recover.
>> Read More
The consider the compounding effect of the Corona Virus to disrupt both demand and supply, the social chaos in China challenging government authority, and a lingering trade war – these factors all make a decline into a recession a real and growing possibility.
>> Read More
The Federal Reserve is throwing the kitchen sink at trying to save the bond market as unemployment is set to explode to the highest levels since the Financial Crisis.
>> Read More
Dual economic shocks are underway simultaneously. There are shortages of some things and lack of demand for others.
>> Read More
Current analysis suggests a “no recession” scenario but is based on lagging economic data which is highly subject to negative revisions. The stock market, however, is a strong leading indicator and returns are typically favorable until about 6-months prior to the start of a recession.
>> Read More
The Fed recognizes ongoing monetary interventions have created financial risks in the terms of asset bubbles across multiple asset classes. They are also aware the majority of policy tools are likely ineffective at mitigating financial risks in the future. This leaves them dependent on expanding their balance sheet which may not be as effective as they hope.
>> Read More
President Trump just proposed his latest $4.8 Trillion budget, and not surprisingly, suggests the deficit will actually decrease over the next 10-years. But this lack of a “story,” is what has led us to the very doorstep of “Modern Monetary Theory,” or “MMT.”
>> Read More
The consider the compounding effect of the Corona Virus to disrupt both demand and supply, the social chaos in China challenging government authority, and a lingering trade war – these factors all make a decline into a recession a real and growing possibility.
>> Read More
There is an old axiom which states that if you repeat a falsehood long enough, it will eventually be accepted as fact.Low oil prices equating to stronger economic growth is one of those falsehoods.
>> Read More
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is neutral right now on monetary policy, saying neither a rate cut nor a rate hike are necessary in the medium term. The markets disagree.
>> Read More
In the President’s “State of the Union Address” on Tuesday, he used the podium to talk up the achievements in the economy and the markets. However, it is the claim of record high stock prices which undermines the rest of the story. Let me explain.
>> Read More
“If the U.S. economy entered a recession soon and interest rates fell in line with levels seen during the moderate recessions of…
>> Read More
David Rosenberg explores Recession Arithmetic in today’s Breakfast With Dave. I add a few charts…
>> Read More
With over $17 trillion of negative debt worldwide to keep the world economy going, central banks have succeeded in sustaining worldwide GDP at 1 – 2 % and falling as of late! For the SPX market to not descend into the Blow Off phase, investors will need to continue to believe in six economic myths:
>> Read More
It insists the latter isn’t QE, but it sure walks and quacks like a QE duck. So, I and many others call it QE4.
>> Read More
We all want to know the future. Unfortunately, the future isn’t talking. It’s just coming,…
>> Read More
Gold broke out of a six year consolidation. Things look up in 2020. Gold Monthly…
>> Read More
A debate over a sudden dramatic surge in Repos is raging. Is it or isn’t…
>> Read More
Every professional investor knows that month-ending, quarter-ending and year-ending timestamps are important. Throughout the year,…
>> Read More
I was stunned by a recent article from Marshall Auerback via The Nation entitled “Why…
>> Read More
This past Monday, on the #RealInvestmentShow, I discussed that it was exceedingly likely that Trump…
>> Read More
Recently, analysts have been discussing the pros and cons of using negative interest rates to…
>> Read More
Should just being “employed” make people/workers happy? On one level, any job is better than…
>> Read More
“This is the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen and it’s going to…
>> Read More
Every month, and quarter, economists, analysts, the media, and investors pour over a variety of…
>> Read More
You really need to watch this video of a recent conversation between Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor…
>> Read More
It’s “Thanksgiving Day,” and after the annual indulging into too much Turkey and dressing, cranberry…
>> Read More
The global economy is slowing. Germany, for instance, may already be in recession. GDP there…
>> Read More
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says the Fed Can Fight Inequality. Then in a move…
>> Read More
