NFIB Survey: Previous Recession Warnings Now A Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 8, 2020Last year, I wrote “NFIB Survey Trips Economic Alarms,” in which I discussed the release…
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Michael Markowski: Difference Between Market Corrections & Crashes
Written by Guest Author | Apr 8, 2020Due to my recent findings from researching the empirical data of prior market crashes since 1901, investors in the future will be able to distinguish a crash from a correction. All crashes and corrections can now be measured and categorized.
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Thinking Outside of the “V” Shaped Recovery Box
Written by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott | Apr 7, 2020If history teaches us one thing, it is that significant, life-altering events are rarely if ever followed by a quick return to normality.
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Technically Speaking: The 4-Phases Of A Full-Market Cycle
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 7, 2020Throughout history, bull market cycles make up on one-half of the “full market” cycle. During every “bull market” cycle, the market and economy build up excesses which must ultimately be reversed through a market reversion and economic recession. In the other words, “What goes up, must come down.”
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Aaand It’s Gone…The Biggest Support For Asset Prices
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 6, 2020Share buybacks have been a major driver of the markets advance in recent years, but the bear market and economic crash from the pandemic have put an end to that. Where will stocks find their support to drive higher in the midst of debt deleveraging and financial crisis.
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#MacroView: THE 2020 – INVESTMENT SUMMIT
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 3, 2020RIA Advisors is proud to present the 2020 Investment Summit. Hosted By: Lance Roberts, CIO RIA Advisors. Featuring:Michael Lebowitz, CFA – RIA Portfolio Manager, Teddy Valle – Pervalle Global, Thomas Thornton – HedgeFund Telemetry, and Jeffery Marcus – TP Analytics
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 04-03-20
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 3, 2020Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.
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Previous Employment Concerns Becoming An Ugly Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 2, 2020We have previously warned that employment data was suggesting the economy was much weaker than expected. As such, it was only a function of time until an exogenous, unexpected, event began the cascade of a recession and bear market.
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Michael Markowski: Markets Now At Tipping Point, Ride Will Be Epic.
Written by Guest Author | Apr 2, 2020According to the Statistical Crash Probability Analysis (SCPA) forecast the probability is 100% that the relief rally high has either already occurred or will occur by April 8, 2020. The probability is the same for the markets of the six countries to make new lows by April 30, 2020.
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Shedlock: Recession Will Be Deeper Than The Great Financial Crisis
Written by Mike Shedlock | Apr 2, 2020The recession caused by the Covid-19 virus will be deeper and last longer than the Financial Crisis. It will take a long time, if ever, for the same sentiment to return. Spending will not recover.
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S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 4-01-2020
Written by J. Brett Freeze | Apr 2, 2020J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis. Each month Brett will provide you…
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The COVID19 Tripwire
Written by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott | Apr 1, 2020Short term pragmatic solutions always seem to be the answer to crisis. Now in a fresh crisis, the Fed once again has no capacity to look beyond the crisis to the consequences of their actions.
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Anatomy of The Bear. Lessons from Russell Napier.
Written by Richard Rosso | Apr 1, 2020Russell Napier’s classic tome “Anatomy of the Bear” is a mandatory study for every financial professional and investor who seeks to understand not only how damaging bear markets can be but also the traits which mark their bottoms. Every bear market from 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, all carried several common traits which can help identify when their over.
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Technically Speaking: 5-Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now.
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 31, 2020The market has had a sharp rally over the last couple of weeks, which has investors feeling all “bullish” again hoping the crash in March was just an anomaly. However, there are some questions that “bullish investors” need to answer before assuming the markets are “all clear” of what ails them.
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Where “I Bought It For The Dividend” Went Wrong
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 30, 2020“I bought it for the dividend,” is not an investment strategy, it is a rationalization for not having properly managed portfolio risk during declines. While the idea of buying dividend stocks is correct, there is a better way to do it over the long-run.
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#MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 27, 2020Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a fight to offset an economic shock bigger than the financial crisis, and they are engaging every possible monetary tool within their arsenal to achieve that goal. The Fed is no longer just a “last resort” for the financial institutions, but now are the lender for the broader economy.
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-27-20
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 27, 2020Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.
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Seth Levine: COVID-19 Is Not The Last War
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 27, 2020As an investor, seeing the field more clearly can be an advantage. Remember, it’s never different this time. Nor, however, is it ever the same. This makes for a difficult paradox to navigate. It’s in chaotic times when an investment framework is most valuable.
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Fed Trying To Inflate A 4th Bubble To Fix The Third
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 26, 2020The Fed is hopeful they can inflate another asset bubble to restore consumer confidence and stabilize the functioning of the credit markets. The problem is that since the Fed never unwound their previous policies, current policies are having a much more muted effect.
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Robertson: When “Stuff” Gets Real
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 26, 2020While the coronavirus will eventually dissipate, the increasing premium on merit is likely to hang around. The bad news is that in many cases it will be too late to avoid the harm caused by leaders and managers and advisors who exploited favorable conditions for personal advantage.
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Michael Markowski: Why You Should Sell The “Bear Market Rally.”
Written by Guest Author | Mar 25, 2020The SCPA now says that the probability is 100% that the indices will rally by 18% off of the lows. The probability is 50% that the indices could increase by 23% from their lows. Everyone should take advantage of the Bear market rally that is currently underway to sell and reduce exposure.
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Why QE Is Not Working
Written by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott | Mar 25, 2020Short term pragmatic solutions always seem to be the answer to crisis. Now in a fresh crisis, the Fed once again has no capacity to look beyond the crisis to the consequences of their actions.
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How COVID-19 May Move Markets
Written by Patrick Hill | Mar 25, 2020The consider the compounding effect of the Corona Virus to disrupt both demand and supply, the social chaos in China challenging government authority, and a lingering trade war – these factors all make a decline into a recession a real and growing possibility.
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Technically Speaking: The One Thing – Playing The “Bear Market” Rally.
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 24, 2020The market tanks on Monday following an escalation of Fed policy into “QE Infinity” as Congress balks at getting Fiscal stimulus passed. The good news is the first phase of the bear market is getting exhausted and a set for a reflexive bounce is near.
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America: WILL WE FINALLY LEARN A LESSON?
Written by Richard Rosso | Mar 24, 2020If as households we do crumble financially yet another time, will this ‘outlier’ event finally teach us a valuable lesson? How many Black Swans must we endure to work diligently, effortlessly, to shore up our family’s finances?
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“No One Saw It Coming” – Should You Worry About The 10-Best Days
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 23, 2020CNBC recently suggested that if you panic sell you could well miss the “best days” of the market. But is that what you should really worry about? We examine the myth of the 10-best days and look at a strategy to invest better.
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#MacroView: Mnuchin & Kudlow Say No Recession?
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 20, 2020Yes, we are in a recession, it has just started, and we have quite a ways to go before it is over. Unfortunately, both Larry Kudlow, Steve Mnuchin, and the Fed, are still misdiagnosing what ails the economy, and monetary policy is unlikely to change the outcome in the U.S. We have months to go before we are done.
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-20-20
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 20, 2020Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.
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Michael Markowski: Dip Buyers, Beware Of Sensational Headlines
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 20, 2020Many investors are salivating to trade the dips in a stock market which is becoming increasingly more volatile. It’s because Wall Street for the week ended March 13th according to the headlines had its worst week since 2008. Its human nature to want to buy at fire sale prices.
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Shedlock: Fed Trying To Save The Bond Market As Unemployment Explodes
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 20, 2020The Federal Reserve is throwing the kitchen sink at trying to save the bond market as unemployment is set to explode to the highest levels since the Financial Crisis.
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