Real Investment Daily

Technically Speaking: The 4-Phases Of A Full-Market Cycle

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 7, 2020

Throughout history, bull market cycles make up on one-half of the “full market” cycle. During every “bull market” cycle, the market and economy build up excesses which must ultimately be reversed through a market reversion and economic recession. In the other words, “What goes up, must come down.” 

>> Read More

Aaand It’s Gone…The Biggest Support For Asset Prices

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 6, 2020

Share buybacks have been a major driver of the markets advance in recent years, but the bear market and economic crash from the pandemic have put an end to that. Where will stocks find their support to drive higher in the midst of debt deleveraging and financial crisis.

>> Read More

#MacroView: THE 2020 – INVESTMENT SUMMIT

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 3, 2020

RIA Advisors is proud to present the 2020 Investment Summit. Hosted By: Lance Roberts, CIO RIA Advisors. Featuring:Michael Lebowitz, CFA – RIA Portfolio Manager, Teddy Valle – Pervalle Global, Thomas Thornton – HedgeFund Telemetry, and Jeffery Marcus – TP Analytics

>> Read More

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 04-03-20

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 3, 2020

Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.

>> Read More

Previous Employment Concerns Becoming An Ugly Reality

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 2, 2020

We have previously warned that employment data was suggesting the economy was much weaker than expected. As such, it was only a function of time until an exogenous, unexpected, event began the cascade of a recession and bear market.

>> Read More

Michael Markowski: Markets Now At Tipping Point, Ride Will Be Epic.

Written by Guest Author | Apr 2, 2020

According to the Statistical Crash Probability Analysis (SCPA) forecast the probability is 100% that the relief rally high has either already occurred or will occur by April 8, 2020.  The probability is the same for the markets of the six countries to make new lows by April 30, 2020.

>> Read More

The COVID19 Tripwire

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott | Apr 1, 2020

Short term pragmatic solutions always seem to be the answer to crisis. Now in a fresh crisis, the Fed once again has no capacity to look beyond the crisis to the consequences of their actions.

>> Read More

Anatomy of The Bear. Lessons from Russell Napier.

Written by Richard Rosso | Apr 1, 2020

Russell Napier’s classic tome “Anatomy of the Bear” is a mandatory study for every financial professional and investor who seeks to understand not only how damaging bear markets can be but also the traits which mark their bottoms. Every bear market from 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, all carried several common traits which can help identify when their over.

>> Read More

Technically Speaking: 5-Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now.

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 31, 2020

The market has had a sharp rally over the last couple of weeks, which has investors feeling all “bullish” again hoping the crash in March was just an anomaly. However, there are some questions that “bullish investors” need to answer before assuming the markets are “all clear” of what ails them.

>> Read More

Where “I Bought It For The Dividend” Went Wrong

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 30, 2020

“I bought it for the dividend,” is not an investment strategy, it is a rationalization for not having properly managed portfolio risk during declines. While the idea of buying dividend stocks is correct, there is a better way to do it over the long-run.

>> Read More

#MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 27, 2020

Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a fight to offset an economic shock bigger than the financial crisis, and they are engaging every possible monetary tool within their arsenal to achieve that goal. The Fed is no longer just a “last resort” for the financial institutions, but now are the lender for the broader economy. 

>> Read More

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-27-20

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 27, 2020

Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.

>> Read More

Seth Levine: COVID-19 Is Not The Last War

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 27, 2020

As an investor, seeing the field more clearly can be an advantage. Remember, it’s never different this time. Nor, however, is it ever the same. This makes for a difficult paradox to navigate. It’s in chaotic times when an investment framework is most valuable.

>> Read More

Fed Trying To Inflate A 4th Bubble To Fix The Third

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 26, 2020

The Fed is hopeful they can inflate another asset bubble to restore consumer confidence and stabilize the functioning of the credit markets. The problem is that since the Fed never unwound their previous policies, current policies are having a much more muted effect. 

>> Read More

Robertson: When “Stuff” Gets Real

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 26, 2020

While the coronavirus will eventually dissipate, the increasing premium on merit is likely to hang around. The bad news is that in many cases it will be too late to avoid the harm caused by leaders and managers and advisors who exploited favorable conditions for personal advantage.

>> Read More

Michael Markowski: Why You Should Sell The “Bear Market Rally.”

Written by Guest Author | Mar 25, 2020

The SCPA now says that the probability is 100% that the indices will rally by 18% off of the lows. The probability is 50% that the indices could increase by 23% from their lows. Everyone should take advantage of the Bear market rally that is currently underway to sell and reduce exposure.

>> Read More

Why QE Is Not Working

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott | Mar 25, 2020

Short term pragmatic solutions always seem to be the answer to crisis. Now in a fresh crisis, the Fed once again has no capacity to look beyond the crisis to the consequences of their actions.

>> Read More

How COVID-19 May Move Markets

Written by Patrick Hill | Mar 25, 2020

The consider the compounding effect of the Corona Virus to disrupt both demand and supply, the social chaos in China challenging government authority, and a lingering trade war – these factors all make a decline into a recession a real and growing possibility.

>> Read More

America: WILL WE FINALLY LEARN A LESSON?

Written by Richard Rosso | Mar 24, 2020

If as households we do crumble financially yet another time, will this ‘outlier’ event finally teach us a valuable lesson? How many Black Swans must we endure to work diligently, effortlessly, to shore up our family’s finances?

>> Read More

#MacroView: Mnuchin & Kudlow Say No Recession?

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 20, 2020

Yes, we are in a recession, it has just started, and we have quite a ways to go before it is over. Unfortunately, both Larry Kudlow, Steve Mnuchin, and the Fed, are still misdiagnosing what ails the economy, and monetary policy is unlikely to change the outcome in the U.S. We have months to go before we are done.

>> Read More

#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-20-20

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 20, 2020

Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.

>> Read More

Michael Markowski: Dip Buyers, Beware Of Sensational Headlines

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 20, 2020

Many investors are salivating to trade the dips in a stock market which is becoming increasingly more volatile.  It’s because Wall Street for the week ended March 13th according to the headlines had its worst week since 2008.  Its human nature to want to buy at fire sale prices.     

>> Read More