1,316 results found
Daily Market Commentary
The equity market spent early 2026 with wavering odds of a rate cut before year-end. With improving labor data and high inflation, that assumption is becoming untenable. While the Fed Funds futures and bond markets are now pricing in odds of a rate increase, the equity markets don’t seem to care. Let’s consider the […]
Economics
The K-shaped economy has become shorthand for a tidy story. The rich pull away while everyone else falls behind. It fits the mood, and it makes for a sharp headline. The problem is that it's mostly wrong. When you pull the actual Census data, the dominant move of the last half-century isn't down.
Daily Market Commentary
Art Berman wrote an excellent analysis describing the state of the oil market and two distinct messages being debated. The following commentary is from his article: Hormuz: A Logistics Crisis, Not Yet an Inventory Crisis. The debate over the oil market and its impact on prices has sharpened. On one side are analysts like Goldman […]
Daily Market Commentary
The headlines surrounding the SpaceX IPO seem mainly focused on how high the stock will go. There is a more important question stemming from the SpaceX IPO and other large deals that few seem to be asking: where will the money come from? SpaceX is targeting a $1.75-$2.00 trillion valuation and a capital raise of […]
Economics
Wall Street has piled into the dollar debasement story; however, as is always the case, when everyone is on one side of the trade, the other side becomes more compelling. In Part 1, we explored why Dollar Dominance Remains Alive and Well. Today, we will explore the stronger-dollar trade, the one macro trade that nobody […]
Daily Market Commentary
“Never. No. We’re not sellers. We’re only acquiring and holding Bitcoin. That’s our strategy.” — Michael Saylor, Bloomberg, January 2022 Four and a half years later, Strategy’s founder Michael Saylor’s never-sell doctrine is dead. Between May 26 and May 31, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for roughly $2.5 million. The transaction is so small in dollar […]
Daily Market Commentary
Robinhood, the financial brokerage company, just introduced an AI credit card agent. The AI credit card agent can scan for the best prices, monitor availability, and make purchases automatically onto your credit card based on your instructions. Instead of spending hours researching and tracking prices and waiting for deals, your credit card agent will do the […]
Economics
The dollar is supposed to be dying. We’ve heard that argument for the better part of a decade, and it’s getting louder, not quieter. The narrative goes that BRICS countries are building an alternative, that China is dumping Treasuries, that gold is replacing the dollar as the world’s reserve asset, and that Washington is so […]
Invest
Innovation drives productivity growth, which in turn raises the standard of living for a nation’s population. Accordingly, we support the theory that AI will boost productivity, benefiting the economy and the population. We laid this bullish case out in The AI Economy: Looking Beyond The Façade Part I. However, history has taught us that it […]