1,316 results found
Daily Market Commentary
Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital, is one of the most followed global liquidity analysts. Howell’s Global Liquidity Index (GLI) often tracks closely to a 65-month sine-wave cycle that has tracked liquidity conditions well since 1965. As we share below, the 65- month cycle (green) bottomed in October 2022 and peaked in August 2025, exactly […]
Invest
Bond market pundits often warn that bear yield curve flatteners or inverted yield curves ultimately lead to recessions. Similarly, some equity experts caution that periods of violent back-and-forth rotations among stock sectors and/or style factors are precursors to a market top. Additionally, the combination of a bearish flattening trend and volatile equity rotations leads some […]
Economics
Headline CPI just printed 4.2% year-over-year for May. The highest reading since April 2023. The 10-year Treasury punched above 4.6% on the back of it, then pulled back recently. Energy ran +23.5% over the past twelve months on the Iran war, accounting for roughly 60% of the monthly all-items gain, and the doom crowd keeps pushing this is 1979 all over again with rate hikes ahead,
Daily Market Commentary
Three weeks ago, we wrote A Supply Tsunami Is Coming. The article discussed why the world’s largest technology companies are choosing equity versus debt to fund their AI infrastructure buildouts. Simply, at 5% interest rates, issuing stock carries no interest expense, no refinancing risk, and no margin pressure. Alphabet raised $80 billion in equity. Meta […]
Daily Market Commentary
Last week, Apple raised prices on certain products, citing rising costs of AI memory chips. In a statement to Reuters, the company said it had “never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly” and further that it had been shielding customers from higher costs until now. There is a global shortage of memory […]
Economics
Milton Friedman's famous one-liner that anchors half the inflation debates on financial television leaves out the part where the actual economics live. Once you put it back in, the doomist case gets a lot smaller.
Daily Market Commentary
A recent article by the Wall Street Journal entitled Turbocharged Earnings Are Pushing Stocks Higher. There’s a Catch raises an important issue for investors of the megacap AI-tech companies. Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to top 20% for a second consecutive quarter; however, the earnings growth is not widespread. The predominant bulk […]
Invest
In 1891, at 14 years old, with nothing but the clothes on his back, Jesse Livermore left his family and headed to Boston. He quickly found a job posting stock quotes at a Paine Webber brokerage office. Livermore spent his lunch hours trading in “bucket shops,” loosely regulated offices where ordinary people bet on stock […]
Daily Market Commentary
Rapidly warming ocean waters almost ensure an El Niño condition by July. El Nino is a periodic warming of ocean surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that disrupts normal weather patterns globally. El Nino patterns can cause droughts in some regions and excessive rainfall in others. This expected episode is much stronger than […]