Page 36 of 92
Judges Trump Trump’s Tariffs
On Wednesday afternoon, the judges from the US Court of International Trade struck down some of President Trump’s tariffs. Notably, the judge’s actions included an injunction on the “Liberation Day” tariffs and specific tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada. The court’s three judges found that Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers […]
May 30, 2025
Consumers Are Not As Gloomy
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index surged from 85.7 to 98.0. Such was the largest one-month increase since 2009! Clearly, progress on trade deals and the delay in implementing tariffs spurred the increase. Moreover, the recovering stock market also boosted consumer confidence. However, bear in mind that the index is coming off its lowest level […]
May 29, 2025
Assessing Credit Spreads After The USA Downgrade
A reader of our Daily Commentary asked how we measure corporate credit spreads in light of the Moody’s downgrade of the USA credit rating. Specifically, “Without having a AAA benchmark to calculate the credit spread of corporate bonds against, what other measure can help me assessing stress in the corporate bond market.” First its important […]
May 28, 2025
The EU And Apple Hit With Tariffs
After a bout of relative market tranquility, investors were rudely awakened Friday with a barrage of new tariff actions targeting the EU and Apple. Via Truth Social, Trump recommended a 50% tariff on European Union imports starting June 1, 2025, and a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outside the US. Regarding the EU, the […]
May 27, 2025
Why Are Yields Surging In Japan?
The short answer is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is letting the market set yields. For years, the BOJ has run an extremely loose monetary policy, including capping yields at extremely low levels and negative interest rates. Limited economic growth and disinflation made such a policy possible. However, inflationary pressures and a weak yen […]
May 23, 2025
Bond Yields Are Surging: Narratives Vs. Fundamentals
Fiscal worries, the dollar’s imminent demise, and soaring tariff-related inflation expectations are among the concerns driving bond yields higher. At the same time, inflation, the historical determinant of US Treasury yields, continues normalizing. As a bond investor, it is difficult to reconcile facts that argue for lower yields and narratives pointing in the opposite direction. […]
May 22, 2025
Retail Is Fearless: Buy The Dip Is On Steroids
Monday was a record-setting day. Stocks opened down 1% on news that Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to AA. While some perceived the downgrade as problematic, retail investors, aka individuals, bought stocks at the highest rate ever. Per JP Morgan, retail investors purchased a net of $4.1 billion of US stocks in the first […]
May 21, 2025
USA Versus JNJ
Over the last fourteen years, as we share below, the US government credit rating has slipped from AAA to AA. Moody’s was the first to cut the USA from AAA to AA in 2011. Fitch followed in 2023, and Moody’s did the same last weekend. Now that the USA government is fully rated AA by […]
May 20, 2025
The TLT Short Trade Is Crowded
Short positions in TLT, the popular 20-year US Treasury Bond ETF, have spiked to over 130 million shares, up from 107 million last month. TLT has 541 million shares outstanding. Consequently, the short interest has risen from 20% to 24% of the float. Furthermore, TLT’s days to cover ratio (short position/average trading volume) is nearly […]
May 19, 2025
Bank Regulators Will Help The Treasury
Per an article in the Financial Times titled US Poised To Dial Back Rules Imposed In Wake of 2008 Crisis, US bank regulators are preparing to reduce bank capital requirements. Of particular interest to the bond market is the supplementary leverage ratio, better known as SLR. Unlike other risk-based capital rules that banks adhere to, […]
May 16, 2025
Page 36 of 92