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Energy Prices Drive The Fed Despite What They Say
The Fed often stresses that it prefers core inflation measures, which exclude food and energy prices. They do this for a few reasons. First, food and energy tend to be more volatile than most other goods. Accordingly, they can distort the broader price trends. Second, food and energy prices are affected by many variables, many […]
Jun 12, 2024
Degen Traders Are Taking Storm Of The Markets
Degen traders, short for degenerates, are taking storm of the markets. The Wall Street Journal recently published Meet The Degen Traders Fueling The Latest Meme-Stock Mania. The article introduces its readers to a new type of investor creating incredible volatility in a handful of stocks and cryptocurrencies. Per the article: “Degens are gamblers, not traders […]
Jun 11, 2024
A Great Jobs Report With Ugly Underpinings
The BLS jobs report showed the economy added 272k jobs, well above expectations of 175k, and the 152k jobs reported by ADP. Also pointing to a strong labor market, average hourly earnings were 0.1% above expectations at +0.4%. While the jobs data seems strong, there is a lot of other data within the report, leading […]
Jun 10, 2024
The Texas Stock Exchange
Yes, you read that right: Texas will host a stock exchange. BlackRock and Citadel are lead investors in a new national stock exchange that plans on calling Texas its headquarters. The Texas Stock Exchange will file for registration with the SEC later this year and hopes to be operational in 2026. The exchange will be […]
Jun 7, 2024
Zero Down Mortgages Are Back
Here we go again. At the peak of the mortgage bubble, leading to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), lenders were offering zero down mortgages. As you may remember, that ended poorly. Accordingly, we presumed that the mistake would not be repeated. We are proven wrong. Per CNN, United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM) is offering mortgage borrowers […]
Jun 6, 2024
Why is Crude Oil Tumbling?
Crude oil prices have fallen by 10% over the last five days and nearly 20% since early April. As we will share, a few factors are negatively impacting the price of crude oil. First, OPEC surprised the markets this past weekend. They agreed to extend most of its production cuts to next year but are […]
Jun 5, 2024
Roaring Kitty Goes All In On GameStop
GameStop shares traded nearly 100% higher in pre-market trading before Monday’s official 9:30 ET opening. The reason is a Tweet and Reddit post from Roaring Kitty. On Twitter, he shared the picture below of an Uno playing card. Further, on Reddit, Roaring Kitty posted for the first time in three years. It sounds unbelievable because […]
Jun 4, 2024
Orange Juice Is The Next Cocoa
In mid-March, we presented daily Commentary readers with a section entitled, Add Cocoa To The List Of “Mooning” Assets. When we wrote the article, the price of cocoa was up by 70% for the year, in line with year-to-date gains in bitcoin and Nvidia. Since then, cocoa prices have fallen by over 40% but have […]
Jun 3, 2024
Lets Knock On Wood
We haven’t written lately on Cathie Wood and her ARKK Innovation ETF. But given the popularity of her funds, their horrendous results over the last three years, and Wood’s preposterous claims, let’s knock on Cathie Wood and ARKK. Wood started the ARKK fund and others in 2014. The flagship fund, ARKK Innovation Fund, seeks long-term […]
May 31, 2024
ETF Fund Flows Confirm What We Knew
The graph on the left below, courtesy of Arbor Data Science, shows that $8 billion of funds flowed into U.S. large-cap ETFs, leaving every other broad ETF sector in the dust. Not surprisingly, U.S. large-cap stocks, consisting of the S&P 500 and, importantly, Nvidia, outperformed the market. The other ETF factors, such as small and […]
May 30, 2024
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