Page 35 of 93
Israel And Iran: Is This Time Different For Oil Prices?
Crude oil prices spiked by over $10 on the initial news that Israel was bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities and targeting its key military leaders. The price surge should be expected, given that Iran accounts for slightly over 3% of global production and, more importantly, holds 12% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves. For context, […]
Jun 16, 2025
Initial And Continuing Jobless Claims On The Rise
Initial and continuing jobless claims are as close to a real-time proxy on employment as we have. Thus, while they do not hold the same importance to the markets as the monthly BLS data, they are worth tracking. Moreover, when trends are changing, as they may be now, their importance increases. The two graphs below […]
Jun 13, 2025
Inflation Remains Tame Despite Tariffs
The May CPI report released yesterday was considered the first inflation gauge to show how tariffs are impacting prices. We would like to see a few more months of inflation reports before claiming the coast is clear, but the May CPI is encouraging. For the fourth consecutive month, the CPI was below Wall Street estimates. […]
Jun 12, 2025
The Google AI Buildout In Plain English
On May 20th, Google CEO Sundar Pichai updated the public on the company’s progress on its AI development as follows: We are now processing 480 trillion monthly tokens, a nearly 50X increase in just one. Over 7 million developers are now building with the Gemini API, a 5x growth since last I.O., and our enterprise […]
Jun 11, 2025
The Economy Is The Real Deficit Problem
The deficit fearmongers are out in full force, warning that massive debt payments will further exacerbate the deficit and ultimately bankrupt the country. While we agree that steadily increasing deficits are a significant problem, we believe it’s not for the reasons most people give. To that end, a recent Tweet by George Gammon succinctly makes […]
Jun 10, 2025
Bond Yield Chasing: Tomorrow’s Narrative?
Numerous bond narratives are driving long-term bond yields higher. “Crippling deficits” and a tariff-induced inflation sit at the top the list. We have repeatedly poked holes in these narratives. Instead of dwelling further on them, let’s consider what tomorrow’s narratives might be. When the bond market changes direction and yields fall, the two narratives we […]
Jun 9, 2025
The Deficit Crisis Is Really A Recession Problem
The graph below provides a clearer understanding of the US fiscal deficit. First, focus on the red line below, graphing the ratio of federal debt to GDP. Note that it is at the same level today as it was in 2021. Similarly, before the pandemic, it had been relatively flat for seven years. This highlights […]
Jun 6, 2025
An ETF Like No Others: The Pudgy Penguin Project
The cryptocurrency sphere and that of traditional finance continue to merge in ways that were previously unthinkable. To wit, Canary Capital filed documentation with the SEC to start the first ETF backed by non-fungible digital tokens. Non-fungible tokens are digital assets representing ownership of a specific piece of content. Most often, they are backed by […]
Jun 5, 2025
Sellers Outnumber Buyers In The Housing Market
The following commentary is from Redfin “There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market. Redfin expects home prices to drop 1% by the end of the year as a result. […]
Jun 4, 2025
Sell In May And Go Away?
An old Wall Street adage advises investors to sell in May and go away. Given that we have just turned the calendar to June, it’s worth assessing whether selling stocks and holding cash for the next seven months makes sense. The graph and data below are based on two trading strategies, both starting in January […]
Jun 3, 2025
Page 35 of 93