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Port Plunge Myths: Why Headlines Don’t Tell The Whole Story
The headlines below lead some to believe the shelves in our stores will soon be empty. Moreover, reminiscent of 2020, an inflation spike due to fractured supply lines is imminent. Let’s provide context to help make sense of the headlines and determine whether the plunge of Chinese inbound container ships to US ports represents truth […]
May 1, 2025
Yale To Trim Billions Of Private Equity Holdings
According to Bloomberg, Yale University could sell as much as $6 billion of its private equity investments. Such a sale would represent about 15% of its total endowment fund and a third of its private equity holdings. Yale was a frontrunner among endowment funds investing in private equity. Its well-known ex-investment manager, David Swensen, believed […]
Apr 30, 2025
A Rare Zweig Breadth Thrust Provides Optimism
The Zweig Breadth Thrust, a rare technical indicator, triggered a bullish signal on Friday. The signal indicates rapid and significant changes in momentum. The calculation is based on the 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks that were positive on a daily basis. The Zweig Breadth Thrust signal occurs when the moving average rises […]
Apr 29, 2025
Banks Are Now Free To Trade Crypto
The Fed removed its handcuffs on banks, allowing them greater flexibility to trade and hold crypto assets. Before Thursday’s action, banks were asked to seek advance approval from the regulators before participating in crypto-related activities. Further, the Fed removed guidance that banks exercise caution with crypto due to its volatility, liquidity, and legal uncertainty. The […]
Apr 28, 2025
Scott Bessent Affirms The Dollar Is Not Dying
Despite a growing chorus of pundits claiming the “death of the dollar” is imminent, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency. The following clip from Bloomberg was based on a speech Scott Bessent gave Thursday morning to the IMF and World Bank: More broadly, the Treasury secretary reinforced backing […]
Apr 25, 2025
The Powell Relief Rally
Monday’s Commentary started: On Truth Social, President Trump stated, “Powell’s Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough!” The stock and bond markets fell as investors feared President Trump might try to remove Powell from his role as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. This isn’t new ground; Trump spoke similar words during his first term. However, with […]
Apr 24, 2025
The Gold Stock Relationship
Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 is down over 10% and nearly 20% from its January peak. At the same time, gold is up almost 30%. The stark return differential is excellent news for gold investors, but the clock may be ticking on gold’s outperformance versus stocks. For historical context of prior […]
Apr 23, 2025
The Kink In The Yield Curve
Economic and inflation forecasts have a highly significant impact on treasury bond yields. Therefore, one would suspect that their yields would follow a linear trend as the maturity lengthens on Treasury securities. For example, if current expectations were for high growth and higher than normal inflation but long-term expectations were contrary, one would expect a […]
Apr 22, 2025
Powells Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough
On Truth Social, President Trump stated, “Powell’s Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough!” His comment, posted early Thursday morning, followed a speech by Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon. Unlike the ECB and other central banks that are cutting rates, Powell and the Fed hesitate to do so. Despite expectations for lower economic growth, they worry that […]
Apr 21, 2025
Frontrunning Tariffs Boosts Economic Activity
Recent consumer sentiment readings have been horrendous. For instance, the University of Michigan’s latest consumer expectations and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index are at or near their lowest levels in ten years. However, despite poor sentiment and concerning outlooks, recent consumer spending reports show increased spending. We, and many economists, believe this is a […]
Apr 17, 2025
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