The ISM manufacturing and service sector surveys are robust leading economic indicators as they provide a near real-time gauge of the sentiment of industry leaders. As we noted last week, the ISM manufacturing survey has pointed to economic contraction for nine consecutive months. The service sector, however, accounting for three-quarters of economic activity, has been […]
This past weekend Saudi Arabia decided unilaterally to cut an additional million barrels of oil production per day starting in July. Thus far, it appears other OPEC nations will not follow Saudi Arabia’s lead and cut oil production. The cuts are scheduled for one month but may be extended. In April, OPEC cut production by […]
Exceedingly low-interest rates spurred a boom in office construction in the decade following the financial crisis. From 2014 through 2019, construction spending for office space grew on average by 15.6% annually, per the St. Louis Fed. That rate is about five times the rate of economic growth. Before the pandemic, the growing amount of office […]
“More than 100% of SPX market cap gains this year have been driven by just 7 stocks with 3 stocks accounting for nearly 70%.” Stuart Kaiser- Citibank. The S&P 500 rose by a scant 0.5% in May, while the Nasdaq 100 was up nearly 8%. At the same time, the equal-weighted S&P 500, representing a […]
In its recent earnings call, Costco’s CFO gave a unique warning about the potential for a slowdown or recession. As shown below, courtesy of The Transcript, Costco warns they are seeing shifts in what customers are buying. Such consumption shifts are similar to those Costco witnessed during the 2008 and 2000 recessions. In particular, Costco […]
President Biden and Republicans have agreed in principle to a debt ceiling deal. While news of a deal to increase the debt ceiling is positive, it must still pass both houses of Congress. Further complicating matters, the Treasury warned over the weekend that without a deal in hand by June 5th, the government would have […]
The PCE Price Index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and it’s the inflation reading used by the BEA to calculate real GDP. On Friday, the PCE Price Index was 0.1% higher than expectations on the monthly and year-over-year readings. The core PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, was also 0.1% higher than expectations […]
Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI technologies, soared Thursday as its earnings and revenues beat expectations. However, what drove NVDA higher by over 25% was not its quarterly results, which incidentally showed negative earnings and revenue growth, but its outlook. NVDA’s management stunned investors by forecasting $11 billion in revenue for […]
Current estimates predict the U.S. Treasury will raise between $600 and $700 billion once Congress increases the debt cap. Currently, the Treasury is drawing down its “checking account,” i.e., its Treasury General Account (TGA), as it can only replace maturing debt, not add new debt. The net result is that they are spending more than […]