In March and April, the price of gold rose by 15% as the debt cap was hit, and the banking crisis accelerated. Since early May, gold has given up a third of those gains. Recent volatility in gold prices corresponds inversely with the dollar and with the news surrounding debt cap negotiations. At first glance, […]
Do the headlines below sound familiar? They should because the same fears and political rhetoric as 2011 are surfacing as the nation faces yet another debt crisis stalemate. Congress has raised the debt cap 78 times since 1960, but many political and media pundits are concerned that this time is different. It’s worth looking back […]
Last week, the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) fell below 16 for the first time since November 2021. The VIX index uses options prices to imply how much future volatility the market expects. Typically, in upward-trending markets, the VIX trends below 20. Conversely, in bearish markets or shorter drawdowns, it lingers in the 20s but […]
We led a recent article about de-dollarization with the following quote: “For those losing sleep that the Chinese yuan, bitcoin, or some other currency will commandeer the dollar’s throne as the world’s reserve currency, sleep tight. That day is not coming anytime soon.” Saudi Arabia reminds us why we believe that the much-heralded death of […]
Despite the Debt Cap circus and continual default threats, the dollar has bounced 2% over the last few weeks. Is the dollar finally gaining some footing after falling 15% since late 2022, or is it consolidating before another leg lower? The direction of the dollar is meaningful. First, a weaker dollar is inflationary as the […]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has some bullish and bearish news for oil prices. In the short run, the IEA sees pressure on oil prices due to recession concerns. To wit: “Prices were pressured lower by muted industrial activity and higher interest rates, which, combined, have led to recessionary scenarios gaining traction.” For context, as […]
Home Depot, Target, and Walmart announce their earnings today, tomorrow, and Thursday, respectively. Given their size and retail presence, their earnings releases will shed more light on the consumer’s health and inflation. Their revenues should be resilient over the last three months as the labor markets remained strong and credit usage was high. However, margins […]
Regional bank woes have thus far been a function of interest rate risk, not credit risk. By this, we mean the banks made loans or bought debt assets with low-interest rates. As rates increased, the value of said loans declined. When deposits left these banks, the assets had to be sold, resulting in losses. With […]
Three well-followed market indexes provide investors with three different tales. These tales are a function of the narrow market breadth in which a small handful of the largest stocks lead the way higher. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), in which these stocks carry the most weight is bullish. It keeps setting higher highs, its 50dma is […]