At Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, Chair Warsh made it clear that the Fed’s number one goal is returning inflation to its 2% target. The reaction in the long end of the bond market was one of disbelief. The 2-year yield fell roughly 4 basis points to 4.24%, while long bonds like the 10-year climbed by […]
Despite the market assigning a moderate 35% chance of a rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates unchanged. However, three dissenting voters (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) wanted a rate hike. The Fed Funds futures market is now pricing in near 80% odds of a September hike. The question is whether 3 to […]
The FOMC meeting concludes today with the rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Heading into today’s announcement, the market is placing 62% odds the Fed holds rates at the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. However, as we share below, market expectations for a September rate hike are […]
Last week, chip maker Intel delivered its seventh consecutive quarterly earnings beat with revenue growing 25% year over year, its fastest growth since 2011. Its non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 doubled the $0.21 consensus. Data Center and AI revenue surged 59%, and 18A foundry output exceeded internal targets by roughly 25%. Intel shares initially jumped as […]
Thursday’s selloff, led by Alphabet down 7% and Tesla down nearly 15%, was a great example of a story that has been unfolding throughout most of the year. While the largest stocks led the market lower last Thursday, many other stocks, especially small caps, were flat to higher on the day. That divergence has been […]
In physics, kinetic equilibrium describes a system in which forces are balanced, and motion continues at a steady, unchanging rate. Felix Vezina-Poirier of BCA Research argues that we can apply kinetic equilibrium to the Iran conflict. Unlike most analysts, he believes that oil prices are not the result of the ebbs and flows in the […]
Prediction markets leader Polymarket has a daily contract that bets on whether the S&P 500 opens higher the next trading day. Yesterday’s contract, as shown below, implied just a 30% probability of an up open, despite the index gaining nearly 1% the day before. The prediction market proved correct with the market opening lower. That […]
Alphabet reports earnings after today’s close, and Intel follows tomorrow. Together, they provide a first clue as to whether AI-related spending and investment continue at the brisk pace of the prior quarters. Alphabet represents the demand side for AI models. Google’s Cloud backlog nearly doubled sequentially last quarter to a record $462 billion, growing 63% […]
Moonshot AI, a Chinese company, just released AI model Kimi K3. Kimi K3 is a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-source AI model that the company claims is the largest ever built. With Kimi K3, Moonshot AI believes it can compete with Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 across several benchmarks, trailing the leading systems only marginally. The news […]