Famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller published a Wall Street Journal opinion piece (Let The Bond Market Speak) on Monday, in which he warns Treasury Secretary Bessent about long-dated bond buybacks. His core thesis seems to rest on the paradox between Warsh’s strong belief in the information value of free markets and the Treasury’s actions to intervene […]
The Treasury General Account (TGA) is Treasury’s cash balance held at the Federal Reserve. Its balance is the net of cash inflows like tax receipts and outflows to pay the government’s bills. On Monday, we learned that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may fund the expanded Treasury bond buyback program by tapping the TGA. Currently, as […]
Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair on Friday, August 28, at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Wyoming. The meeting occurs less than three weeks before the September 16 FOMC decision. While the official topic is financial innovation in payments, Wall Street will primarily want to see whether Warsh […]
Starting December 6, 2026, Nasdaq will offer a trading session starting at 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. ET. The new hours, in addition to the standard 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET and current pre- and post-market trading sessions, would extend the exchange’s trading to nearly 23 hours a day, five days a week, from […]
The U.S. Treasury announced yesterday that it will at least double its liquidity-supporting buyback operations for Treasury notes and bonds with 10 or more years to maturity. The current per-operation cap of $2 billion will rise to at least $4 billion, effective September 9, 2026, and remains in place through November 4. While very close […]
Cem Karsan is flagging August 21, the monthly options expiration (OPEX) date, as the setup for what he calls a gamma cliff. On August 21st, one of the year’s larger concentrations of monthly options open interest will expire or roll forward. What happens next is worth watching. Options market makers must hedge their risk by […]
Last week, we wrote two short articles within our Commentary summarizing Mark Zuckerberg’s new stance on AI. We were skeptical of his “AI for the people” essay given his track record. Thus, when we saw a recent Bloomberg editorial, Don’t Buy Zuckerberg’s ‘Good Guy of AI’ Act, we thought it was important to present a […]
Friday’s weak retail sales report did more damage to the hawkish case. Sales fell 0.6% in July against expectations for a 0.1% gain. The control group, the piece that feeds directly into GDP, dropped 0.4%. That was its first decline this year. The print landed a week after payrolls fell 23,000 and two days after […]
According to an article published Wednesday in The Wall Street Journal, more than 40 S&P 500 companies have reported roughly $9.6 billion in tariff refunds. Apple leads at nearly $2.2 billion. Nike follows at $986 million, FedEx at about $800 million, Amazon at $640 million, and GM at $500 million. The timing is awkward. In […]