Is Global Liquidity Peaking?
Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital, is one of the most followed global liquidity analysts. Howell’s Global Liquidity Index (GLI) often tracks closely to a 65-month sine-wave cycle that has tracked liquidity conditions well since 1965. As we share below, […]
The Dollar Narrative Has Turned
Months ago, the financial headlines were littered with stern warnings that the dollar was depreciating rapidly. There was a popular narrative drawing fear that a dollar demise was imminent. A few short months later, the dollar narrative has flipped. According […]
Forward Guidance: R.I.P
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first major public appearance, a panel at the ECB’s annual forum in Portugal, to formally bury one of the Fed’s most relied-upon tools of the last 25 years: forward guidance. Warsh could not be […]
The Yen At 40-Year Lows: Should You Care?
As shown below, the Japanese yen has fallen to levels not seen since the late 1980s. (Note the chart quotes yen per dollar, thus a higher figure represents a depreciating yen) We have written extensively about why the yen matters […]
Debt Versus Equity: SPCX Bucks The Trend
Three weeks ago, we wrote A Supply Tsunami Is Coming. The article discussed why the world’s largest technology companies are choosing equity versus debt to fund their AI infrastructure buildouts. Simply, at 5% interest rates, issuing stock carries no interest […]
AI Memory Chips Spark Inflation Worries
Last week, Apple raised prices on certain products, citing rising costs of AI memory chips. In a statement to Reuters, the company said it had “never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly” and further that it had […]
Alphabet Joins The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Starting this morning, Alphabet will replace Verizon Communications in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index change hasn’t gotten much media attention, but it sends a loud message about the economy. The change makes Alphabet one of just 30 companies […]
Micron: The AI Memory Supercycle Rolls On
Micron left little doubt that the supply-demand equation is grossly out of balance for AI memory chips, benefiting semiconductor companies. In its latest earnings report, Micron reported astronomical growth with revenue of $41.46 billion, up a stunning 346% year over […]
Earnings Growth Today But At What Cost?
A recent article by the Wall Street Journal entitled Turbocharged Earnings Are Pushing Stocks Higher. There’s a Catch raises an important issue for investors of the megacap AI-tech companies. Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to top 20% […]