Stable Coins Versus Banks: The Battle Over Interest Rates
A battle is raging in the Halls of Congress between the banks and the crypto industry. The spark was a judgment by the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, which recommended that stablecoins be allowed to pay interest to their […]
The Market Knows What You Don’t
A client and friend asked us a timely question: “Why did we remove our hedge position so quickly after the ceasefire, especially with little evidence it will hold?” The simple answer is the market knows more than all of us. […]
Delta Has An Ace In The Hole
On Wednesday, Delta Airlines announced it beat earnings expectations and, more importantly, its CEO maintained previous forward guidance despite the sharp increase in jet fuel prices. Delta CEO Ed Bastian cited a $2 billion quarterly fuel headwind caused by the […]
Ceasefire Rally: Can The Market Hold New Support
Upon hearing of the ceasefire, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, and the stock market surged. In doing so, the S&P 500 broke well above resistance. Accordingly, the old resistance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) now becomes support. While […]
The Berkshire War Chest: A Crisis Hedge?
Berkshire Hathaway now sits on $373 billion in Cash. They have enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500. For context, this is the largest cash stockpile since 2008. At that time, Berkshire used its cash not to buy […]
An IPO Surge Hides Behind The Fog Of War
While Investors remain fixated on the Iranian conflict and the extreme volatility of oil prices, a historic wave of AI-driven IPOs is quietly building in the background. When the geopolitical fog clears, AI-related IPOs may become an important market narrative […]
Is A Squeeze In Bonds Coming?
As sentiment shifts from a Fed rate-cutting forecast to one that now sees a chance of a rate increase, a potentially powerful short squeeze setup might be emerging in the Treasury market. Heading into the Iran conflict, speculative short positions […]
Volume Profiles: Eyeing Resistance From Trapped Longs?
Volume profiling provides unique insight into the profit-and-loss position of recent investors by identifying price levels at which significant buying and selling have occurred. Areas of high volume can act as powerful support and resistance levels because they represent prices […]
The Kohn Solution For An Uncertain Fed
Dario Perkins of TS Lombard wrote a piece titled “How to Respond to Oil Shocks.” His analysis draws on the Fed’s history to address how it should respond to today’s oil shock. While researching Fed transcripts from the 1990 Gulf […]