To justify hiking rates, Kevin Warsh and the Fed painted a rosy picture of the labor market. Interestingly, Warsh did so by citing record low jobless claims. To wit: Unemployment claims, on a four-week moving average, are running at levels consistent with full employment. So, the labor side of the Fed’s congressional remit is in […]
We hate to drone on about a Fed rate hike, but we want to stress the risks in the Fed’s 25bps hike, as it is unlike any other hike we have seen in over thirty years. Let’s contrast it with every Fed hiking cycle since 1994. Today’s starting point is unlike those instances; economic growth […]
The Fed hiked by 25 basis points and alluded to another hike, as the market expected and as we surmised in our prior Commentary. The more important takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC meeting is what comes next. In the prior Commentary, we pointed out three things to watch: the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the balance […]
Our title, “Fed Hikes,” is a bit presumptuous, but with Fed Funds futures assigning a 90% chance of a hike this afternoon, it’s likely a done deal. Instead of debating whether the Fed hikes, the more useful question for investors is: what comes next? Three things from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will likely put us in […]
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay, “We Must Pace the Frontier,” on his personal website last weekend that is weighing on AI stocks. Amodei argues AI labs need to slow development to manage the risks that come with capabilities improving faster than our ability to understand and control them. Sam Altman and Elon Musk […]
Last Thursday’s Treasury buyback operation was deemed “weak” in the financial media as it bought back just $5.19 billion, less than the $6 billion investors had anticipated. A buyback succeeds only if current bondholders are willing to sell their existing holdings back to the Treasury at the offered price. Thus, a “weak” or undersized buyback […]
Twenty-five years ago today, nearly 3,000 people lost their lives in the September 11th attacks, a tragedy that reshaped our country. We pause to honor those who lost their lives in the event. In the years since the crisis, financial markets have absorbed the shock, adapted, and moved forward. Beyond remembering the event and honoring […]
At a speech Tuesday night at SMU, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened currency traders to bet against him on the Japanese yen, claiming, I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what […]
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s recent Hawkish Pivot raises a troubling question: is he actually worried about inflation, or is he changing his tune to build the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility as it tries to stabilize long-term yields? If the latter, he risks making a policy error if he raises rates. At his recent Jackson Hole speech, […]