Daily Market Commentary

One of the most underappreciated risks to the economic outlook is the historically low personal savings rate and its impact on personal consumption. At roughly 2.6%, the current savings rate is the lowest since 1960, excluding a few years before […]

We thought we were done with our recent stream on crude oil prices, consumer confidence, and their impact on bond yields, but the graph below and analysis from a client of ours is a great encore to the recent commentaries […]

Yesterday’s Commentary led with a discussion of how bond yields have risen far more than bond market-implied inflation expectations. The fear of another inflation spike is negatively impacting bonds more than should be expected given implied inflation. While worrying about […]

Since the Iranian conflict began, bond yields have risen sharply due to investor expectations of a spike in inflation. Recent inflation data shows those rising inflation expectations are somewhat justified. In March and April, the monthly rate of inflation, as […]

Last week’s release of the April FOMC minutes shows a growing push among the FOMC members to drop any indication of an easing bias. This has led the media to assume the Fed is more hawkish. Three weeks ago, at […]

SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th. Below is a summary of key information from the SEC filing. IPO Offering: SpaceX is targeting a valuation ranging […]

When investors discuss the semiconductor chips driving AI infrastructure, they almost always key on Nvidia GPU chips. That’s not surprising, given the surge in Nvidia GPU revenue as we share below. Since 2024, GPU revenue has risen by over 1300% […]

Some political pundits think that Iran holds important negotiating cards versus the US if it can control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While that may hold some truth today and for the next few months, some of the world’s […]

As we wrote in Yesterday’s Commentary, the broad market indexes have surged since the April lows, driven largely by a handful of technology and AI stocks and the benefit of massive options volumes. Among the leaders is Nvidia (NVDA), climbing […]