223 results found
Daily Market Commentary
Over the past few months, we have witnessed a decided deterioration in consumer spending. For instance, first-quarter sales from many large retailers showed little to no growth. Economic data like Q1 GDP and the recent retail sales report further confirm that personal consumption is slowing. Last Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey followed […]
Newsletter
As discussed below, that inflation report and Fed meeting sent stocks surging to all-time highs. While the bullish trend remains intact, along with a MACD "buy signal," which suggests an increased allocation to equity exposure, we have some concerns.
Invest
Let’s play a hole of golf to appreciate how two distinct aspects of golf provide valuable lessons for investors. You tee off with a driver on a 450-yard par four hole. Your drive is perfect. Not only does the ball land in the middle of the fairway, but you only have 200 yards remaining to […]
Invest
More than a few individuals were active in the markets in 1999-2000, but many participants today were not. I remember looking at charts and writing about the craziness in markets as the fears of “Y2K” and the boom of “internet” filled media headlines. It was quite the dichotomy. On one hand, it was feared that […]
Daily Market Commentary
Wednesday’s retail sales and CPI data were weak enough to get investors back on the rate-cut bandwagon. As shown in the CME table below, the market now ascribes an 85% chance the Fed will cut rates in September and reduce them a second time before year-end. Retail Sales for April were flat (0.00%) below the […]
Daily Market Commentary
On Monday, the popular meme stocks Game Stop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged higher in yet another short squeeze episode. Fundamentally, both companies have been flirting with bankruptcy. But they have been bailed out on numerous occasions by coordinated short squeezes, allowing them to raise needed capital by issuing new stock at relatively high […]
Invest
Household equity allocations are again sharply rising, as the “Fear Of Missing Out” or “F.O.M.O.” fuels a near panic mentality to chase markets higher. As Michael Hartnett from Bank of America recently noted: “Stocks are up a ferocious +25% in 5 months, which has happened just 10 times since the 1930s. Normally, such surges occur […]
Daily Market Commentary
Microstrategy (MSTR) provides its customers with business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. Despite losing money and zero growth in revenues over the last ten years, investors can’t seem to buy enough of MicroStrategy. The rationale is not based on prospects for their core technology businesses but on their massive accumulation of Bitcoin since 2020. […]
Invest
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites. “Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of […]