223 results found
Economics
When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is interesting today that economists and the media complain about surging healthcare costs with each inflation report but fail to identify the root cause of that escalation. […]
Daily Market Commentary
In August, the BLS revised 2024 employment growth lower by 818k jobs in its preliminary revision of its Current Employment Statistics (CES). Despite the substantial revision, more reductions to the official employment data are likely to come next month. In January, the BLS will release its final benchmark revision. The preliminary and final revisions to […]
Daily Market Commentary
Turn on CNBC, and you will notice a bright green box permanently affixed to the bottom right corner with the ever-changing price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is all the rage as market speculation across crypto and other assets is robust. Moreover, with Donald Trump putting Bitcoin-friendly appointees in key financial regulatory jobs, the price surge has […]
Economics
Corporations are currently producing the highest level of profitability, as a percentage of GDP, in history. However, understanding corporate profitability involves more than glancing at quarterly earnings reports. At its core, the Kalecki Profit Equation provides a valuable framework, especially when exploring the reasons behind today’s elevated profit margins and what could disrupt them. James […]
Invest
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify. As discussed in last week’s #BullBearReport, leverage and speculation are at the heart of many such cycles. These two powerful forces support the amplification of gains during upswings but can accelerate losses in downturns. Today’s market environment shows […]
Invest
Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To wit: “Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 “Trump” tax cuts.“ (Note: this survey was […]
Newsletter
Things did not look good heading into this week. However, the market rallied off the 100-DMA and retraced to the 50-DMA. Then, on Wednesday morning, a hotter-than-expected CPI report led to a sharp 1.5% selloff that retested the 100-DMA a second time. Things looked a bit dire, but strong words from Nvidia's (NVDA) CEO sent stocks surging higher to a 1% gain by the close. That reversal cleared resistance at the 50-DMA, confirming the retest of the previous support. That bullish action continued through Friday, clearing the 20-DMA as well.
Economics
It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than driving to a local retailer or manufacturer, we order it online. Of course, we mustn’t dismiss the rise of social media, which connects us […]
Daily Market Commentary
“The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy.” That sentence led off our article last week: Yield Curve Shifts Offer Signals For Stockholders. The Treasury yield curve has proven an accurate predictor […]