223 results found
Daily Market Commentary
Friday’s employment data from the BLS was a mixed bag. The closely followed nonfarm payrolls number grew by 275k jobs, decently above expectations of +190k. Despite the seemingly strong number, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2% to 3.9%. Last month’s scorching gain of 353k jobs was revised lower to 229k. You may wonder why the […]
Newsletter
Last week, the ongoing "can't stop, won't stop" bullish trend remained firmly intact. That was the case again this week, as the market tested the 20-DMA, the bottom of the trend channel, early in the week, which sparked buyers to push the index to all-time highs by the week's end. At the same time, volatility remains compressed, with the deviation from the 200-DMA growing. As shown, the breadth of the market and momentum are both negatively diverging from the rising market, which historically serves as a warning.
Daily Market Commentary
The implied volatility index (VIX) calculates the future volatility that option traders expect. The VIX tends to rise as stocks decline. At such times, investors are often more aggressive in hedging their stocks with options. Conversely, when markets are increasing, the demand for insurance tends to wane. Further, imparting downward pressure on the VIX, some […]
Invest
Apple’s valuations are near their most expensive levels of the last ten years. Now consider that today’s valuation premiums are amidst a much higher risk-free bond yield than during most of the previous ten years. Apple has a market cap of $2.8 trillion. Assuming its price-to-earnings ratio and margins remain stable, Apple must sell nearly […]
Daily Market Commentary
On Thursday morning, Japan and the United Kingdom reported a negative GDP for the second consecutive quarter. A few weeks ago, Germany also reported consecutive quarterly declines in GDP. Accordingly, all three countries are now in a technical recession. To appreciate their role in the global economy, consider Germany is the world’s third-largest economy, and […]
Invest
The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Plenty of articles and commentaries address the concern of supply and affordability, with the younger generations getting hit the hardest. Such was the subject of this recent CNET article: “The housing affordability crisis means it’s taking longer for people to become homeowners […]
Daily Market Commentary
The price of New York Community Bank (NYCB) was cut in half last week as it drastically increased its loan loss reserves. As we noted in a recent Commentary, they took this action partly because of the commercial real estate (CRE) loans they bought from the failed Signature Bank. The work-from-home movement and higher interest […]
Daily Market Commentary
The BLS stunned investors Friday morning, reporting that the labor market was hotter than expected. The labor market added 353k jobs in January, almost double expectations for 180k. Furthermore, December’s figure was revised upward by 117k. Of some concern for the Fed, average hourly earnings grew by 0.6%, twice what was expected. However, there are […]
Invest
I received an email this past week concerning George Soros’ “Theory Of Reflexivity.” “I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the internet and fiber did […]