223 results found
Invest
The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy. Short- and long-term yields have recently fallen, with short-term maturities leading the charge. The changes result in what bond traders call a bull steepening […]
Daily Market Commentary
The Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, kicking off yesterday, will keep traders on edge over the next few days. The Fed often uses the Jackson Hole meeting to elaborate on its expected policy path for the months ahead. Furthermore, they expound on their economic views and the economic data points most likely to […]
Daily Market Commentary
Walmart’s earnings report gives investors hope that weakening retail spending trends may be ending. Walmart’s earnings and sales exceeded expectations. Furthermore, Walmart gave increased earnings guidance for the year ahead. Investors loved the news, as witnessed by Walmart shares initially trading 8% higher on the news. Most retail earnings this year have been accompanied by […]
Daily Market Commentary
According to the latest JOLTs report from the BLS, the number of job hires has fallen back to levels from 2017. Despite the rate of hires falling below the pre-pandemic trend, the labor market remains relatively strong. Why is this occurring? According to a Bloomberg article entitled The Labor Market Confronts the End of Pandemic-Era […]
Invest
Ask economists how they forecast economic activity. It’s likely they will mention productivity, demographics, debt, the Fed, interest rates, and a litany of other elements. Economic confidence is probably not at the top of the list for most economists. It is tricky to gauge as it can be inconsistent. However, confidence can sometimes change quickly […]
Daily Market Commentary
Copper is often called Doctor Copper as its price serves as an economic barometer. Before Friday, Doctor Copper was down for nine consecutive days. In the first five months of the year, copper prices rose by 38% as inflation stagnated, worrying the Fed that it could start a new upward trend. In reaction to stubborn […]
Invest
Over the last few years, a handful of “Mega-Capitalization” (mega-market capitalization) stocks have dominated market returns. The question is whether that dominance will continue and if the same companies remain the leaders. It is an interesting question. The number of publicly traded companies continues to decline, as shown in the following chart from Apollo. This […]
Daily Market Commentary
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress yesterday and updated them with the Fed’s latest views on the economy, inflation, and monetary policy. The Fed has kept rates at current levels in part because the labor market was tight. Chair Powell’s concern was that higher wages due to a shortage of workers would feed inflation. […]
Daily Market Commentary
The chart below suggests that global diversification could be dead. The S&P 500 notched a total return of 13.3% annually over the past 15 years, while the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indices returned 5.9% and 3.2% per annum respectively. The performance gap primarily stems from differences in earnings growth. S&P 500 earnings grew […]