Daily Market Commentary Dow Slides While Nasdaq Rallies: Omen Or Rotation? Blog Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back Daily Market Commentary Low Jobless Claims Are ‘Half A Misnomer’ Bull Bear Report The Fed Rate Hike Won’t Fix The Inflation It Targets Daily Market Commentary A Hike Like No Other Blog K-Shaped Economy: Reality Or Media-Driven Perception Daily Market Commentary Another Hike By Year End And No Cuts On The Horizon Blog Has The Bond Market Already Done The Fed’s Job? Daily Market Commentary Fed Hikes: Then What? Daily Market Commentary Amodei Says Slow Down: Trump And China Say No
Vol. XXVII · No. 134
Tuesday — September 22, 2026
Houston, Texas
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223 results found

Margin Balances Suggests Risks Are Building Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Margin Balances Suggests Risks Are Building

Last week, we discussed that continued bullish exuberance and high levels of complacency can quickly turn into volatility. As we noted then, introducing an unexpected, exogenous event can soon lead to a price decline if investors begin to reprice forward expectations. On Friday, that unexpected event presented itself when China, and most notoriously, the Wuhan Lab, reported the discovery of a new coronavirus in bats.

Lance Roberts 17 min read
Eggflation Fears Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 2 years ago

Eggflation Fears

Egg prices were up nearly 19.5% in last Wednesday’s CPI report as the Avian flu wreaks havoc on the nation’s egg supply. Despite its inconsequential role in determining inflation, Eggflation is getting much publicity. Given the Eggflation fearmongering on social media, it’s worth putting some context on egg prices and their impact on CPI. Eggs […]

RIA Team 6 min read
Retail Exuberance Sets Market Up For A Correction Invest
— Invest · 2 years ago

Retail Exuberance Sets Market Up For A Correction

Last week, we discussed the surge in retail exuberance in the market following the election of President Trump. “The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and “buy the dip.” In our recent Bull Bear reports, we discussed the push by retail investors, but looking at retail sentiment is quite […]

Lance Roberts 8 min read
Its The Dollar Stupid Invest
— Invest · 2 years ago

Its The Dollar Stupid

Our recent article, Why Are Bond Yields Rising, explains that the recent 1% increase in yields, as shown below, is almost entirely due to negative sentiment. As we wrote, the bond market calls sentiment the term premium. Of the 1% yield increase, only 10% is due to fundamental factors, leaving 90% a function of bond […]

Michael Lebowitz 8 min read
Consolidation Continues Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Consolidation Continues

Before we reach the full month of January, the market must pass the first five days. As of Wednesday, which concluded the first five trading days of January, that market did generate a positive return, rising about 0.62%. As we noted last week, this is the first of two "January Indicators" that have historically, on average, set the tone for the year. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has logged net gains during the first five days of the year 47 times. Of those 47 instances, the index ended the year up in 39 of them. That's an 83% success rate for the first five-day theory. However, don't get too excited. Of the 74 completed years since 1950, the S&P 500 has logged a full-year gain 73% of the time. That is likely because stocks are rising as the growth of the global economy continues despite the occasional stumble.

Lance Roberts 18 min read
Inflation Concerns Scare The Bond Market Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 2 years ago

Inflation Concerns Scare The Bond Market

As we share below, bond market sentiment, known officially as the term premium, has been almost entirely responsible for the recent surge in bond yields. Specifically, behind the move is investor concern regarding another round of inflation stemming from the recent Fed’s rate cuts. The poor sentiment is very apparent when comparing news to a […]

RIA Team 5 min read
Outflows Of TLT Are Tremendous Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 2 years ago

Outflows Of TLT Are Tremendous

Outflows from bond ETFs, such as TLT, have been tremendous over the last two months. ETFs, unlike mutual funds, allow dealers to redeem shares for the underlying securities and vice versa. The exchanges most often occur when the demand to buy or sell the ETF is high, thus creating a small arbitrage for the dealer. […]

RIA Team 6 min read
2024 Review – Another 20% Year. What’s Next? Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

2024 Review – Another 20% Year. What’s Next?

There is no way to sugarcoat the market's poor performance. While December started with a bang, it ended with a whimper, with a long stretch of daily losses into year-end. Now, 2025 is opening with a whimper. Small caps fell apart after attempting to "make a comeback," and overall market breadth declined. However, with the markets now oversold, we should expect a rally heading into the Presidential inauguration, which likely started on Friday.

Lance Roberts 17 min read
Scenarios For 2025 Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 2 years ago

Scenarios For 2025

Over the past couple of weeks and into the next few weeks, you will likely be inundated with economic forecasts and stock market scenarios for 2025. We do not want to add to your pile of scenarios, but we think it may be valuable to share the latest thoughts from our colleague Jim Colquitt of […]

RIA Team 5 min read