223 results found
Economics
The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag that hasn’t yet caught up with reality. As we have discussed, the American consumer is […]
Invest
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow economic forecasting tool predicts an imminent recession, which is fueling investor angst. However, the New York and St. Louis Feds’ Nowcast economic forecasts predict continued economic growth in the first quarter. Confused? This article explores the GDPNow and Nowcast models to understand the recent forecast divergences. A better understanding of the […]
Daily Market Commentary
The key to lower inflation may start with the stock market and feed into the economy rather than vice versa. The wealth effect describes the behavioral phenomenon where individuals’ perceived wealth changes impact their spending decisions. People tend to feel wealthier when their asset prices rise, even if their income remains unchanged, leading to higher […]
Daily Market Commentary
Within the headline retail sales figure is a lesser-followed data point called the retail sales control group. Following the trend of both figures is important because although the headline figure receives more attention, the control group is the measure that feeds into the GDP calculation. While retail sales increased by only 0.2% MoM on Monday, […]
Invest
U.S. recession risks have been a headline over the last few weeks as the markets sold off. “Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics in recent days joined forecasters raising alarm about the increased likelihood of an economic downturn. The warnings coincided with a market plunge touched off by U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China, some of which […]
Daily Market Commentary
In our Commentary last week, we noted that Delta shares were down over ten percent due to their weak economic outlook. Per our Commentary- “Delta’s CEO offered similar caution: The outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in Domestic demand. He also […]
Daily Market Commentary
In hindsight, markets are easy to assess, yet extremely challenging to forecast. For example, as we will show, it’s undeniable that value, particularly large-cap value stocks, have been in vogue during the recent decline, while growth is being kicked to the curb. This rotation from growth to value is an example of how investors rotate […]
Newsletter
Last week, we discussed that continued bullish exuberance and high levels of complacency can quickly turn into volatility. Over the previous week, the market fell sharply following news of a potential viral outbreak in China and more concerns about tariffs from the Trump Administration. While those were the headlines that gained the market's attention, the reality was that the market was overbought and on a sell signal, setting the market up for pullback.
Daily Market Commentary
The coming unprecedented government job cuts will undoubtedly impact the job market. Given the labor market’s importance to Fed policy and the economy, it’s worth fully appreciating the size of the government workforce and other employees whose jobs might be affected. The following graph, courtesy of John Burns Research & Consulting, shows that 3.8 million […]