Daily Market Commentary

The Fed hiked by 25 basis points and alluded to another hike, as the market expected and as we surmised in our prior Commentary. The more important takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC meeting is what comes next. In the prior Commentary, we pointed out three things to watch: the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the balance […]

Our title, “Fed Hikes,” is a bit presumptuous, but with Fed Funds futures assigning a 90% chance of a hike this afternoon, it’s likely a done deal. Instead of debating whether the Fed hikes, the more useful question for investors is: what comes next? Three things from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will likely put us in […]

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay, “We Must Pace the Frontier,” on his personal website last weekend that is weighing on AI stocks. Amodei argues AI labs need to slow development to manage the risks that come with capabilities improving faster than our ability to understand and control them. Sam Altman and Elon Musk […]

Last Thursday’s Treasury buyback operation was deemed “weak” in the financial media as it bought back just $5.19 billion, less than the $6 billion investors had anticipated. A buyback succeeds only if current bondholders are willing to sell their existing holdings back to the Treasury at the offered price. Thus, a “weak” or undersized buyback […]

Twenty-five years ago today, nearly 3,000 people lost their lives in the September 11th attacks, a tragedy that reshaped our country. We pause to honor those who lost their lives in the event. In the years since the crisis, financial markets have absorbed the shock, adapted, and moved forward. Beyond remembering the event and honoring […]

At a speech Tuesday night at SMU, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened currency traders to bet against him on the Japanese yen, claiming, I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what […]

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s recent Hawkish Pivot raises a troubling question: is he actually worried about inflation, or is he changing his tune to build the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility as it tries to stabilize long-term yields? If the latter, he risks making a policy error if he raises rates. At his recent Jackson Hole speech, […]

The BLS reported that payrolls jumped by 162,000, more than tripling estimates of a 50,000 gain. Unemployment held at 4.1%, and wages rose 0.3% for the month. Below, we share a bullish reaction and a more measured one from Wall Street analysts. While helpful to know how analysts view the data, they often contradict one […]

CoreWeave, which rents GPU computing capacity to AI labs and hyperscalers, sits at the heart of a circular financing story that worries some investors. CoreWeave’s total debt sits at $35 billion as of June 30, up sharply from $21 billion at year-end 2025. Further, interest expense hit $640 million last quarter, accounting for more than […]

For those worried about the impact of deficits and inflation on US bond yields, it’s worth taking a trip around the world to get a better picture. Global bond yields for many of the world’s ten largest economies are behaving similarly. Across the Globe, the US, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, and Brazil- seven of the […]

After 15 years of guiding Apple to become the largest US company by market cap, Tim Cook stepped down as Apple’s CEO effective September 1. In his place, John Ternus, the company’s hardware engineering chief since 2021, will become Apple’s eighth CEO. The move was announced in April, but with the CEO turnover in September, […]

Because Warsh doesn’t believe in forward guidance, Friday’s Jackson Hole speech may be the last window investors get into his thinking before the September 16 FOMC meeting. Accordingly, it’s worth spending more time on his speech to see if Wall Streets verdict agrees with our hawkish take in Monday’s Commentary- Warsh Makes A Hawkish Pivot. […]