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A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.

AI capex and earnings are now so tightly tied that spending doesn’t have to fall to hurt profits. It only has to stop accelerating. Almost half of the S&P 500’s earnings growth this year traces back to one activity: companies buying chips, servers, power gear, and concrete to build artificial intelligence. That’s the estimate Goldman […]

A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.

With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield closed September north of 5.2%, the highest level in roughly 24 years. Most of the headlines treat that as a warning. I […]

A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.

The sequence of return risk is the quiet reason two retirees with identical average returns can end up in very different places. Let’s start with an easy example. Two people retire on the same day with the same million dollars. They have the same portfolio and the same 30-year average return. They should both live […]

The viral “price of happiness” number prices a survey answer, not the thing you feel, and it’s quoted per person. The “price of happiness” chart came around again recently, and the number attached to it was as confident as ever. One widely shared version, built from a Remitly analysis, ranked 50 countries. The measure: how […]

The headlines have never sounded scarier, and the market keeps setting records, which is exactly why investor optimism wins over a full cycle, and why your own behavior is the real risk. Hope is not an investment strategy. Every advisor has said some version of that line, and it holds up. You cannot pray for […]

A viral stat claims credit card delinquencies just hit their worst level since 2008. However, the New York Fed’s own data shows the opposite, and the real consumer credit stress is hiding exactly where the headlines aren’t looking. A number has been making the rounds all year, and it’s misleading. The claim: roughly 13% of […]

Consensus earnings estimates now sit close to 50% above trend, and that gap is exactly where an earnings mean reversion tends to begin. This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting […]

“What the K-shaped economy gets right, what it exaggerates, and what believing the worst version is costing a generation.” The bottom half of American households owns about 2.5% of the nation’s wealth. That number is real, and it ought to bother you. However, that number is also higher than it was in 2019 and 2015, […]

“How To Win The Long Game” is the final chapter of our series and we dig into the rules and guidelines for better investing and portfolio risk management. Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management […]