The Gold Stock Relationship
Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 is down over 10% and nearly 20% from its January peak. At the same time, gold is up almost 30%. The stark return differential is excellent news for gold investors, but […]
The Kink In The Yield Curve
Economic and inflation forecasts have a highly significant impact on treasury bond yields. Therefore, one would suspect that their yields would follow a linear trend as the maturity lengthens on Treasury securities. For example, if current expectations were for high […]
Powells Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough
On Truth Social, President Trump stated, “Powell’s Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough!” His comment, posted early Thursday morning, followed a speech by Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon. Unlike the ECB and other central banks that are cutting rates, Powell and […]
Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet
In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market’s “early warning system.” To wit:“ “Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference […]
Failure At The 200-DMA
In last week’s post, “Is the correction over?” we wrote about the potential for a rally back to the 200-DMA. However, the failure of that test increased short-term concerns. As we noted in that post, there were early indications of […]
Sellable Rally Or “Buy The Dip”
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, and our 401k plan manager tool.
U.S. Recession Risks Not As High As The Media Suggests
U.S. recession risks have been a headline over the last few weeks as the markets sold off. “Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics in recent days joined forecasters raising alarm about the increased likelihood of an economic downturn. The warnings coincided […]
Trump’s Tariffs Spark Market Volatility
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, and our 401k plan manager tool.
The Risk Of A Recession Isn’t Zero
The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial […]