A Third Of US Debt Matures In 2026
We received the following question from a client: “I was at a conference where they showed that roughly a third of the currently existing US Government debt is set to mature in the next few years. How can we pay […]
SpaceX: A Financial And Strategic Windfall For Google
In 2015, Google wrote a $900 million check to SpaceX for a roughly 7.5% stake in Elon Musk’s budding aerospace/rocket company. At the time, SpaceX was valued at $12 billion. Ten years later, Google’s early investment in SpaceX is now […]
The “Double Bubble”
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting this past week delivered a deeply dovish outcome for markets. The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate reduction this year. While the vote was 9‑3, there was notable dissent on both sides of the policy debate. Three officials opposed any change, and one called for a larger cut. While unsurprising, it underscores the internal disagreement about the direction of the economy.
Does AI Capex Spending Lead To Positive Outcomes?
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
Hawkish Or Less Dovish? QE Or Not QE?
There is a growing divergence of views among FOMC members. Some remain dovish, favoring more rate cuts. Their argument is based on a belief that inflation will continue to move toward the 2% target and that the weakening labor market […]
Hassett To Replace Powell: Betting Markets Are Confident
Based on comments from President Trump and the odds on the Kalshi betting site, shown below, Kevin Hassett is the likely nominee to replace Jerome Powell when his term as Fed Chair ends in May. While still half a year […]
1 Million Layoffs
U.S. employers have announced over 1 million layoffs this year, the highest annual total since the pandemic-era collapse in 2020. November alone saw more than 71,000 layoffs announced, keeping pressure on sectors from technology to telecoms even as the equity […]
Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop
Markets opened in December with a surge in optimism as retail investors regained their "bullish spirit." That improvement continues to build on the bullish case we discussed last week:
Jobs Data From Alternative Sources May Drive Fed’s Next Move
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.