2,247 results found
Daily Market Commentary
The dollar-debasement narrative is in full swing, as evidenced by the price of precious metals. However, one look at bitcoin, which should also rally on the debasement narrative, tells you something is amiss. We do not buy into the dollar-debasement narrative; instead, we believe much of the activity in gold and bitcoin is more closely […]
Daily Market Commentary
On Monday night, copper prices, as shown below, reached an all-time high of over $12,000 per metric ton. Copper is often referred to as “Doctor Copper” because it serves as a barometer of global economic activity. However, the current surge in prices is not due to sharply rising demand; tariffs and physical dislocation are heavily […]
Economics
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index just printed 44.8 in May. That’s the worst reading since the survey began in 1952. That print was lower than in 2008 and the 1980 inflation panic. It was also worse than the COVID lockdowns, yet the S&P 500 continues to climb higher, Q1 corporate earnings posted 27% […]
Daily Market Commentary
Crude oil prices spiked by over $10 on the initial news that Israel was bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities and targeting its key military leaders. The price surge should be expected, given that Iran accounts for slightly over 3% of global production and, more importantly, holds 12% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves. For context, […]
Newsletter
As stock prices continue to push higher, investor and consumer sentiment indexes have also risen. As we will discuss in today's commentary, such should be expected. However, that increase in the sentiment index is also working against the Fed. Such is something Jerome Powell noted this past week during his testimony before Congress. Combined with the Fed's comments that more rate hikes are likely coming, continued weak economic data and persistent inflationary pressures weighed on the markets this week. As noted last week, such was unsurprising.
Newsletter
September, so far, is living up to its reputation. The market slipped to the 50-day moving average, with the tape taking orders from crude oil. For the week, crude rose about 9% over four sessions, which pulled the 10-year Treasury yield higher right along with it, closing just under 5%. The corners of the market that hate higher rates slid while the S&P 500 dipped 0.68% to close the week at 7,666. However, that rather lackluster headline conveniently hides the real story beneath it.
Daily Market Commentary
Recently, Kamala Harris proposed that if elected, she would implement a ban on price gouging for food and groceries. Her goal is to lower inflation, as food prices have risen by about 20% over the last four years. The Harris campaign says the price gouging measure sets “clear rules of the road to make clear […]
Daily Market Commentary
Since the election, Bitcoin has risen nearly 50%. While Bitcoin investors are licking their chops, believing the magnificent rally will continue, they need to realize that Bitcoin is entering a period of pronounced seasonal volatility. The graph below from Sentimentrader shows that the recent performance has tracked the typical performance for the time of year. […]
Real Estate
Home prices have started to correct as interest rates rose sharply in 2022. However, the real problem for home prices is still coming in 2023 as the standoff between sellers and buyers comes to a head. However, before we get there, let’s review how we got here. Since the turn of the century, there have […]