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Five weeks of losses, one ceasefire announcement, and the market exhaled — at least for now. The week opened on a knife's edge. Trump's self-imposed deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalation kept futures volatile and conviction thin. Monday churned with no direction, the S&P closing essentially flat. Tuesday was similarly tortured. The index swung by more than 1% intraday before settling with a 0.08% gain as Pakistan urged a two-week extension.

A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.

Believe it or not, it’s been 18 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Despite many detailed investigative reports on the events and even the popularity of The Big Short, a box-office hit and bestselling book, the role of subprime […]

Five weeks of losses, one ceasefire announcement, and the market exhaled — at least for now. The week opened on a knife's edge. Trump's self-imposed deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face escalation kept futures volatile and conviction thin. Monday churned with no direction, the S&P closing essentially flat. Tuesday was similarly tortured. The index swung by more than 1% intraday before settling with a 0.08% gain as Pakistan urged a two-week extension.

Upon hearing of the ceasefire, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, and the stock market surged. In doing so, the S&P 500 broke well above resistance. Accordingly, the old resistance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) now becomes support. While […]

There seems to be widespread disbelief among gold investors, as gold prices have fallen by over 10% since the US and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28th. Many investors think that gold is a safe haven that should do […]

This past week was another disappointing one. Markets opened the week surging after President Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S.-Iran talks had been "very good and productive" and that he was halting strikes on Iranian power plants. Brent crude fell more than 10% in a single session, its biggest single-day drop since early March, while the S&P 500 gained 1.15%. It was the kind of relief rally that tempts investors into believing a corner has been turned. It wasn't.

Geopolitical events are among the most reliable drivers of bad investment decisions. When headlines are alarming, and markets are volatile, as they are today, investors instinctively overweight worst-case scenarios and underweight the likelihood that the situation resolves more quietly than […]

Some media pundits are warning the public that high oil prices will spark a repeat of the high-inflation era of the 1970s. High oil prices will feed through to inflation; however, the economic, monetary policy, and geopolitical environments of the […]