#MacroView: The Feedback Loop Between The Fed & The Elite.
Many believe the stock market is "making everyone rich." The reality is that its the 10% who own the majority of stocks. Such is the result of the feedback loop between the Fed and the elite.
The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype
Recently, we have seen claims that the “collapsing” dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire statements. First, the dollar is not collapsing. Second, we […]
The Consumer Is Tapping Out
The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag […]
GDPNow or Nowcast?
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow economic forecasting tool predicts an imminent recession, which is fueling investor angst. However, the New York and St. Louis Feds’ Nowcast economic forecasts predict continued economic growth in the first quarter. Confused? This article explores the […]
The Key to Lower Inflation May Start with Stock Prices
The key to lower inflation may start with the stock market and feed into the economy rather than vice versa. The wealth effect describes the behavioral phenomenon where individuals’ perceived wealth changes impact their spending decisions. People tend to feel […]
Retail Sales Are Better Than Advertised
Within the headline retail sales figure is a lesser-followed data point called the retail sales control group. Following the trend of both figures is important because although the headline figure receives more attention, the control group is the measure that […]
U.S. Recession Risks Not As High As The Media Suggests
U.S. recession risks have been a headline over the last few weeks as the markets sold off. “Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics in recent days joined forecasters raising alarm about the increased likelihood of an economic downturn. The warnings coincided […]
Transportation Stocks Continue To Lead Markets Lower
In our Commentary last week, we noted that Delta shares were down over ten percent due to their weak economic outlook. Per our Commentary- “Delta’s CEO offered similar caution: The outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer […]
The Rotation To Value From Growth: What Comes Next?
In hindsight, markets are easy to assess, yet extremely challenging to forecast. For example, as we will show, it’s undeniable that value, particularly large-cap value stocks, have been in vogue during the recent decline, while growth is being kicked to […]