Page 62 of 92
The VVIX and VIX Highlight Complacency
After a brief spurt of volatility accompanying the 6% market decline in April, implied volatility (VIX) and volatility of volatility (VVIX) have fallen back to multi-year lows. The lesser known volatitly gague VVIX is down to levels last seen ten years ago. VVIX measures the volatility of the VIX index. While they do correlate well, […]
May 14, 2024
Small Cap Profit Margins Confirm NFIB Findings
A few weeks ago, we wrote Economic Warning From The NFIB to share information from the latest NFIB small business survey. While the economy appears to be in good shape, the NFIB shows that smaller businesses, including some small-cap stocks, are suffering. Per the article: “the NFIB small business confidence survey declined in its latest […]
May 13, 2024
Stock Buybacks Are Growing Again
Apple’s stock surged 7% after reporting flat earnings and revenue growth. Investors didn’t seem to mind that Apple is struggling to generate growth. What mattered more to Apple investors was their pledge to buyback $110 billion of stock. According to Buybacks are Back by the Wall Street Journal, S&P 500 companies completed $181bn of buybacks […]
May 10, 2024
Economic Headwinds Are Starting To Gust
With just a few graphs, we can visualize how economic headwinds are about to get stiffer. Additionally, the graphs help us understand why President Biden has such low economic polling numbers, even among Democrats, despite such a strong economy. There are four predominant means by which consumers can spend. Income is typically the largest and […]
May 9, 2024
Could ACDC Bring Needed Growth To Apple?
In June, Apple is expected to announce its progress on AI development, including Project ACDC, which stands for Apple Chips in Data Center. In a partnership with chip maker Taiwan Semiconductors, Apple hopes to make ACDC a competitor in what some are calling the AI arms race. Accordingly, ACDC will face tough competition from companies […]
May 8, 2024
Excess Savings Wanes Likely Eliminating Excess Growth
Personal consumption accounts for two-thirds of economic activity. Therefore, the means by which consumers can spend is essential for forecasting economic growth. The San Francisco Fed just released an article warning that a significant source of spending since the pandemic is no longer available. Per their article, Pandemic Savings Are Gone: What’s Next for U.S. […]
May 7, 2024
A Stock And Bond Friendly Labor Report
Last week’s Employment Cost Index (ECI) shook the stock and bond markets as investors worried that higher wages would keep inflation sticky, thus forcing the Fed to push off rate cuts. However, Friday’s BLS report provided optimism for stock and bond investors as it aligned with other wage data that did not show a jump […]
May 6, 2024
Starbucks Earnings Warn Of Belt Tightening
Starbucks latest earnings report sends the message that consumers may finally be retrenching after a few years of spending above their means. Cheap luxury items are low in price by definition and include items that we do not necessarily need but are nice to have. When consumers have confidence in the economy and their jobs, […]
May 3, 2024
Rate Cuts Do Not Appear To Be On The Horizon
As was widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged. Jerome Powell alluded that it’s much more likely the next Fed move will be rate cuts, not an increase in interest rates. Given the November elections and the internal pressure on the Fed to remain independent, it now seems likely that barring a sharp upturn […]
May 2, 2024
Bitcoin Is Halving On Saturday
On Saturday, April 20, Bitcoin will be halving. Halving is an essential part of what makes Bitcoin unique. The halving process means that bitcoin miners will receive half as many bitcoins for verifying blockchain transactions. Currently, they receive 6.25 bitcoin for every 210,000 network blocks they verify. After April 20, they will only get 3.125. […]
Apr 17, 2024
Page 62 of 92