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Might GE Vernova Be The Next Nvidia?
Nvidia shares have risen by 600% in the last two years. While some say its shares are now grossly overpriced, its earnings and sales growth argue otherwise. Nvidia’s surging stock prices typify what is happening with many stocks related to the AI boom. While technology sector stocks appear to benefit most from AI, other sectors […]
May 29, 2024
Food Also Points To Slowing Personal Consumption
Thursday’s Commentary led with a discussion of how sales at major retailers were slowing appreciably. The takeaway from the piece is that personal consumption, accounting for two-thirds of GDP, is slowing. A reader emailed us, “Not so fast with your judgment. “You may be right, but you should also look at spending on food for […]
May 27, 2024
Nvidia By The Numbers
With the stock price of Nvidia (NVDA) now trading at over $1,000 per share, Nvidia stock has been up 270,000% since it went public. If you bought 1000 shares of Nvidia at its IPO in 1999 for a mere $376 and held them until today, congratulations—you are now a millionaire. We present a few numbers […]
May 24, 2024
Targets Sales Woes Are The Norm In The Retail Sector
One repeated theme in the current round of earnings is that personal consumption is slowing down. Last month, McDonald’s, Starbucks, and many other retail-oriented stocks fell on weak sales. This week, we are reminded again via poor sales from Target, Lowes, and Macy’s. All three reported a decline in sales compared to last year. Target’s […]
May 23, 2024
Market Divergence Prompts An Important Question
“Recently, we have had confusing divergences in the major stock market indexes,” starts a reader’s question. He goes on to ask why there are days like Monday when one index is down by a decent amount and another posts moderate gains. On Monday, for instance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.50%, The Nasdaq […]
May 22, 2024
Nvidia Earnings: What To Expect
This Wednesday’s Nvidia (NVDA) quarterly earnings announcement will be the most watched earnings report of the quarter. Not only will Nvidia’s shareholders pay close attention, but many non-shareholders will watch as the results could have a big impact on the entire market. Quite simply, not only has Nvidia’s stock been the poster child for all […]
May 21, 2024
Summer Driving Season is Late This Year- Signal or Noise?
Summer driving season, lasting from Memorial Day to Labor Day is fast approaching. Typically, during driving season, U.S. motor gasoline consumption is 400,000 barrels/day above the average for spring and fall. As shown below, gasoline consumption has run at its lowest since 2012. Typically, above-average consumption rates start ramping up in April. Yet, this year, […]
May 20, 2024
Electricity Demand is Surging on the Back of Data Centers
The graph below shows that the price of electricity is surging. It has risen by about 8% annually over the last three years. Going back to 1955, there have only been three other price increases of a similar magnitude. The electricity inflation in 1973 and the early 1980s was related to the surging oil price […]
May 17, 2024
Retail Sales And CPI Return Hope For A September Cut
Wednesday’s retail sales and CPI data were weak enough to get investors back on the rate-cut bandwagon. As shown in the CME table below, the market now ascribes an 85% chance the Fed will cut rates in September and reduce them a second time before year-end. Retail Sales for April were flat (0.00%) below the […]
May 16, 2024
The GME and AMC Short Squeeze Is On Again
On Monday, the popular meme stocks Game Stop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged higher in yet another short squeeze episode. Fundamentally, both companies have been flirting with bankruptcy. But they have been bailed out on numerous occasions by coordinated short squeezes, allowing them to raise needed capital by issuing new stock at relatively high […]
May 15, 2024
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