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Cash Allocations Send an Ominous Signal
Administrative Note: We will not publish a daily market commentary tomorrow or Wednesday. Everyone at RIA Advisors would like to extend our sincere blessings to you and your families and our wishes for a very Merry Christmas. _________________ According to Bank of America, institutional fund managers are sitting on record low cash allocations as they […]
Dec 23, 2024
China Yields Collapse
Treasury yields rose sharply following the Fed meeting on Wednesday, yet they are collapsing in the world’s second-largest economy, China. While our economy is robust, large foreign economies, including China, struggle. Our recent article Global Conditions and Commentary, highlights the strong historical relationship between the global economy and the U.S. Moreover, it summarizes the economic […]
Dec 20, 2024
Cut And Pause: FOMC Summary
As widely expected, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bps, to 4.25-4.50%, at yesterday’s FOMC meeting. Moreover, they intimated that after cutting rates by 1% since September, they are likely to be more data-dependent, which may slow the pace of further rate cuts. They want to see inflation trend lower again and/or the […]
Dec 19, 2024
More Revisions Coming To Employment Data
In August, the BLS revised 2024 employment growth lower by 818k jobs in its preliminary revision of its Current Employment Statistics (CES). Despite the substantial revision, more reductions to the official employment data are likely to come next month. In January, the BLS will release its final benchmark revision. The preliminary and final revisions to […]
Dec 18, 2024
The Dollar And Domestic – International Relative Stock Returns
The U.S. dollar index is up over 6% this year, almost all attributable to a post-election surge. As many developed nations show stagnant economic growth or even contraction, the U.S. economy continues to hum. Further bolstering the dollar is the likelihood that the Fed will slow rate cuts or stop them after this Wednesday’s FOMC […]
Dec 17, 2024
Britain And European Economic Growth Sputters
Yesterday’s Commentary touched on the divergence between robust economic growth in the U.S. and near-recessionary conditions in Canada. We highlighted the importance of this to U.S. investors because of the historically strong correlation between the two economies. Unfortunately, Canada is not a one-off instance. Britain, Europe, and China also exhibit poor economic growth. Given the […]
Dec 16, 2024
Is Canada A Canary In The Economic Coalmine?
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark rate by 50bps. They have now cut by 150 bps in 2024, compared to what will likely be 100 bps for the Fed after next week’s meeting. Unlike the Fed, Canada’s central bank is fighting off a recession. Canadian real GDP for the last four […]
Dec 13, 2024
CPI Was On The Screws: The Fed Has The Green Light
Yesterday’s CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. The data was OK but elicits fears that the downward price progress has stalled. The […]
Dec 12, 2024
China Is No Longer The Marginal Buyer Of Oil
From 2010 through 2022, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) calculates that global oil demand grew by 10 million barrels per day (Mb/d). Over 60% of the demand growth was due to China’s phenomenal economic growth. For context, American demand increased by less than 10%. The graph below shows that China once drove global oil […]
Dec 11, 2024
What Are Material Stocks Telling Us?
Material stocks have been one of the worst-performing sectors this year, lagging the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. Since the election, its relative performance versus the market has continued to worsen. Therefore, given the historical correlation between the economy and the materials sector, we must assess what the sector’s underlying stocks are trying to tell […]
Dec 10, 2024
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