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Housing Affordability Brings Market To A Standstill
Housing affordability helps explain why residential real estate transactions have reached a standstill. Over the last five years, housing prices have surged. Per the Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index, home prices from 20 of the largest cities have risen between 33% and 80%. Over the same five-year period, mortgage rates jumped from 3.68% to […]
Dec 9, 2024
100k Bitcoin
Turn on CNBC, and you will notice a bright green box permanently affixed to the bottom right corner with the ever-changing price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is all the rage as market speculation across crypto and other assets is robust. Moreover, with Donald Trump putting Bitcoin-friendly appointees in key financial regulatory jobs, the price surge has […]
Dec 6, 2024
Lilly Tops Nordisk In Weightloss Battle
The two market-leading weight loss/obesity drugs (GLP-1), Zepabound (Eli Lilly) and Wegovy (Novo Nordisk), just completed a clinical side-by-side trial. After 72 weeks of testing on 750 obese or overweight adults with at least one medical problem, Eli Lilly came out ahead by a substantial margin. Per Eli Lilly: Zepabound provided a 47% greater relative […]
Dec 5, 2024
The Dollar And Oil Foresee A Santa Rally For Bonds
Bond yields are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors such as inflation and economic growth. Given their impact on inflation and the economy, the U.S. dollar and oil prices are frequently well correlated with bond yields. Therefore, bond traders often take their cue from the dollar and oil markets. The dollar (blue), as graphed on the […]
Dec 4, 2024
In Store Sales Falter Despite A Good Black Friday
Based on early Black Friday sales estimates, sales were strong, but shoppers were much more inclined to take advantage of online sales than go to the malls and stores in person. Mastercard SpendingPulse estimates that in store sales only grew by 0.7% from last year, while online sales rose by nearly 15%. Facteus, another data […]
Dec 3, 2024
New Home Sales And Home Prices Argue For Another Cut
New home sales fell by 17.30% in October, marking the most significant monthly decline in ten years, as shown in the graph on the left below. Furthermore, the supply of new homes on the market rose from 7.7 to 9.5 months. Not surprisingly, building permits fell by 0.4% following a 3.1% decline last month due […]
Dec 2, 2024
Leverage And Speculation: Signs Of A Raging Bull Market
In a recent Commentary- MicroStrategy Is A Leveraged ETF In Disguise – we discussed the company’s business model, which revolves almost entirely around highly speculative bitcoin and leverage. To wit: So, what is MicroStrategy? It’s a leveraged Bitcoin fund disguised as a non-profit technology company. Regarding leverage and speculation, we also recently discussed the surging […]
Nov 27, 2024
The 3-3-3 Rule
Donald Trump nominated seasoned hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary. While the Treasury Secretary has many responsibilities, debt management is one of the most important. Therefore, given the recent scrutiny the bond market has been paying to high deficits and associated debt, Scott Bessent appears to be a timely appointment. Bessent […]
Nov 26, 2024
Bitcoin Is Entering Volatility Season
Since the election, Bitcoin has risen nearly 50%. While Bitcoin investors are licking their chops, believing the magnificent rally will continue, they need to realize that Bitcoin is entering a period of pronounced seasonal volatility. The graph below from Sentimentrader shows that the recent performance has tracked the typical performance for the time of year. […]
Nov 25, 2024
AI Is Steaming To Nvidia’s Benefit
Wall Street’s poster child for AI is Nvidia. With an overwhelming market share in AI chip design, Nvidia is up over 200% year to date and a whopping 2680% over the last five years. Driving the price surge are incredible earnings, revenue growth, massive profit margins, and promising outlooks. Since 2020, Nvidia’s sales have increased […]
Nov 22, 2024
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